The big question mark this weekend is how much will Edge of Darkness gross for Opening Weekend? Mel Gibson’s new movie is based off a BBC TV series in the 1980’s and has the same director. From what I hear, the series was quite good and so have the reviews for the movie. Despite some predictions in the $20 Million+ range, my model is still predicting an Opening Weekend below expectations. When in Rome seems like it is going to come in right as expected and will probably not surprise anyone.
I found out recently about a betting site that offers betting lines for movies on opening weekend. I put some money on www.intertops.com and will be betting there as well as on Intrade. On Intrade I am shorting Edge of Darkness on the $16 Million price point for 60% and the $18 Million price point at 70%. On Intertops I hedged by putting equal bets on $11-$16 Million at +150 and $16-$21 Million at +150.
| Movie | Opening Weekend Prediction |
| Edge of Darkness | $14.86 Million |
| When in Rome | $11.08 Million |
P.S – Sorry, for the late posting but my internet was down for most of the day.
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