Friday, January 29, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions & Bets (1/29/10)-(1/31/10)

The big question mark this weekend is how much will Edge of Darkness gross for Opening Weekend? Mel Gibson’s new movie is based off a BBC TV series in the 1980’s and has the same director. From what I hear, the series was quite good and so have the reviews for the movie. Despite some predictions in the $20 Million+ range, my model is still predicting an Opening Weekend below expectations. When in Rome seems like it is going to come in right as expected and will probably not surprise anyone.

I found out recently about a betting site that offers betting lines for movies on opening weekend. I put some money on www.intertops.com and will be betting there as well as on Intrade. On Intrade I am shorting Edge of Darkness on the $16 Million price point for 60% and the $18 Million price point at 70%. On Intertops I hedged by putting equal bets on $11-$16 Million at +150 and $16-$21 Million at +150.

Movie Opening Weekend Prediction
Edge of Darkness $14.86 Million
When in Rome $11.08 Million

P.S – Sorry, for the late posting but my internet was down for most of the day.

No comments:

Post a Comment