Box Office Prediction and Bets - Shrek Forever After and Macgruber

This weekend we have Shrek Forever After and Macgruber. Hopefully, this will be the last in the series for Shrek. As much as I loved the first Shrek movie, I feel that the quality of each sequel has been worse then the last. Needless to say I think that this movie will not open as well as the others. I have shorted Shrek Forever After at the $90, $95 and $100 Million price points on Intrade. I don't think my model's number for Macgruber is going to be very accurate so I adjusted it upwards a little bit. I have yet to get fully back into studying these numbers carefully and adjusting the model to get a more accurate prediction but I know my estimates shouldn't be too far off either.

Prediction for Opening Weekend

Shrek Forever After - $77 Million

Macgruber - $9 Million

Feels Good to be Back

Especially when I get to see this.



I bet on Rand Paul a while ago and the contract finally expired. Nice to come back home to a win. Especially after a series of losses. I'll be updating the blog and getting back to what I do best.

Blog Update

Sorry, I haven't posted in a while. I've been extremely busy with finals and spending valuable time with friends that I might not see for a while. Today, I graduated from Florida State University having majored in Economics and Political Science. In a couple of days I'll be vacationing in Europe. First time across the pond for me, so it should be fun. Needless to say posting will be light in the immediate future.

Currently, I've been selling my positions on the Lib Dems in the U.K election. I really thought that the Lib Dems had a real chance at a breakthrough. Either with a majority or coalition with Labour where they won the most seats. Nick Clegg wasn't able to repeat his great 1st debate performance and David Cameron did so well in the 3rd debate that I decided right there to go back long on the Tories for a majority.

I also have a little bit going long on Charlie Crist in the FL Senate Race. I'm not exactly sure he can win, but Crist currently leads Rubio in the most recent poll of the now three way race in Florida. November is going to be very interesting in my home state. I think Rubio is a little over valued at the moment trading around 50%-55%. He should definitely be the favorite considering he should have organizational advantage now that he has won the Republican primary but Charlie Crist should not be dismissed so easily. He is the Governor and there does appear to be a section of the electorate that would be willing to vote for him.

Hopefully for next weekend, I'll be able to bet and post on Iron Man 2 but that is a big if at this point.