The Cantor Exchange

As some of you have already heard, this April 20th, the same people that run the Hollywood Stock Exchange will open the Cantor Exchange, a real money trading site for box office grosses trading in America.  In the last couple of months I have become a member of both the HSX and the CE.  I never really took HSX seriously until talk of CE opening a while ago.  I have accounts open on both sites and was sent this e-mail three days ago. 

Dear Chuck,

Get ready to start trading movies! The launch of real-money movie futures trading is almost here.

Cantor Exchange expects to receive final regulatory approval by April 20, 2010, and will start trading Domestic Box Office Receipt (DBOR) Movie Futures shortly thereafter.

We will soon begin accepting customer funds. In a few weeks we will send you instructions on funding your account and information on our incentives for doing so prior to "opening day".

Please note that the practice market will be stopped when the current It Pays to Practice period completes at the end of March, so that we can gear up for the launch. In the mean time, you can continue your practice trading to sharpen your skills and get yourself ready. If you have not gotten involved in practice trading yet, now is your chance to try to earn some cash while you practice and prepare for real-money futures trading!

Please let us know if you have any questions about the upcoming launch or about It Pays to Practice.

Get ready. The countdown has begun...

Richard Jaycobs
President, Cantor Exchange

Practice Trading: practice.cantorexchange.com
More Information: www.cantorexchange.com
Real-Money Futures Site: futures.cantorexchange.com

customerservice@cantorexchange.com +1 212.829.5455

Our address:
499 Park Avenue
New York, NY 10022

Like HSX, the Cantor Exchange will have futures for the 4-Week Total Gross of feature films appearing in North America.  It does not appear that CE will have Opening Weekend derivatives even though they have them on the HSX site.  It will be interesting to find out how liquid and useful this market can become.  How accurate will the prices be?  Will the prices of CE be significantly different from those on the play money HSX site?  How will Hollywood studios react to a futures market of their movies?

I’ll be monitoring the development of the Cantor Exchange and if I think I can get some good action, I’ll consider putting some money.  Currently, I’m practicing on HSX to just get a feel for how it works and I’m up $700,000(yay, monopoly money!)

HT: Midas Oracle

Box Office Predictions & Bets - Cop Out & The Crazies

Well, I finally got what I think are good odds on Intertops. My model is predicting a better than expected weekend for Cop Out with Bruce Willis and Tracy Morgan. The Crazies seems destined for a small opening below $20 Million. Not surprising considering Shutter Island probably stole all of its thunder last week. No bets on Intrade this week but I did go on Intertops and bet on Cop Out - USD 22 million or more for +300.

Movie	Opening Weekend Prediction
Cop Out	$25.88 Million
The Crazies	$17.09 Million

Box Office Results & Analysis

Shutter Island had a really good weekend and my model is now doing a good job of at least being consistent. Nice to see that Martin Scorcese’s new horror doing really well.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Shutter Island	$37.53 Million	$41,062,440	9.41%

Box Office Tracking - Cop Out & The Crazies

 

Movie	MTC	RS
Cop Out	$20 Million	$15 Million (Mid Teens)
The Crazies	$14 Million	$12.5 Million (Low Teens)

DeMint-Rubio for President?

This is just weird. From CNN.

Washington (CNN) – Here's one indicator of Marco Rubio's star power: the Florida Republican Senate candidate has not even won his election, but he's already heading to a key state in the presidential nominating process.

Rubio will join Sen. Jim DeMint, one of his political patrons, for a three-city tour of South Carolina on March 15 to "promote common sense ideas and new conservative leadership," a GOP source in the state told CNN Monday.

DeMint aides will also launch a new Web site - DeMintRubio.com - to promote the tour starting Tuesday. DeMint broke with his GOP colleagues in the Senate last summer to endorse Rubio in his GOP primary battle against Gov. Charlie Crist. The conservative senator also introduced Rubio before the rising star's speech last Thursday to the Conservative Political Action Conference.

I have to ask the obvious question. DeMint-Rubio for President? Could it be possible that an entire presidential ticket is being planned before a part of the ticket has even been elected to national office? Seems far fetched and a little risky politically but with the expected Republican win in the fall and Rubio running away with it in the primary, it may not be that damaging.

I disagree with CNN thinking this is a sign of Rubio running for President but one more for DeMint. DeMint's name does come first and he may touting Rubio around as showing he has the leadership to recognize the new direction the Republican party needs and desperately wants.

In an age where the Vice-Presidency has taken on more power, why not plan a dual attack for the nomination? Campaigning in the primary with a running mate already determined might give him an edge over his opponents in multiple ways. Appealing to different demographics, running in multiple locations at the same time, showing your idealogical consistency and delegating authority for an efficient and organized campaign for the Presidency. You can even consider the possibility of a two pronged attack with both candidates running with the agreement to endorse the other one on the way to a win?

2012 is still far away. We haven't even had the Mid-Term elections so this is just wild speculation and I certainly wouldn't like to tie my money up for 2-3 years but this was just my first couple of thoughts when reading this.

Ron Paul wins CPAC Straw Poll

CPAC Straw Poll Results

Sen. DeMint was not on the list for Presidential contenders but respondents were asked about his favorability rating. He had the highest favorability and lowest unfavorability.

Box Office Predictions – Shutter Island

I am going to New Orleans for my birthday this weekend. I can only do a quick update. No bets this weekend.

Movie	Prediction
Shutter Island	$37.53 Million

Box Office Analysis – Percy & the Olympians, Valentine’s Day, and the Wolfman

Valentine’s Day had a great weekend and helped make sure that Avatar didn’t regain it’s #1 status. I doubt it ever gets #1 again. Shutter Island should easily defeat it this next weekend. For the 4-Day weekend, my model underestimated all three movies and was only close for the Wolfman. I made a smaller profit this weekend than last weekend but I am happy that I had to risk even less in order to do so.

The really cool thing was we once again had early numbers provided by a user on HSX. Too bad he won’t be posting again as he got in trouble. The numbers that he reported seemed to be from theaters that have higher than average Per Theater Averages. Had he provided more numbers, projecting Friday’s Box Office gross could have been determined roughly at around 8PM EST. This should be a warning to all future traders that Insider Trading on this market is possible even earlier in the day. Even so, I don’t think I have seen any such instance.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Valentine's Day	$48.45 Million	$63,135,312	30.31%
The Wolfman	$33.58 Million	$35,555,065	5.88%
Percy and the Olympians	$28.20 Million	$38,661,634	36.71%
--	--	Opening Weekend Average	24.30%

Box Office Tracking – Shutter Island

Looks like Shutter Island directed by Martin Scorsese starring Leonardo Dicaprio can have a decent opening around $35 Million. Apparently someone is already giving Shutter Island a 76% chance of going over $37.5 Million on Intrade. Talk about buying high and really early.

Movie	MTC	RS
Shutter Island	$33 Million	$25 Million (Mid 20’s)

Opening Weekend Box Office Predictions & Bets (2/12/10)-(2/15/10)

For this 4-day weekend we have Valentine’s Day, Percy and the Olympians, and the Wolfman. All the movies seem to be opening around expectations. This weekend their weren’t many takers and I was only able to make a fraction of the bets I wanted. I went long on Valentine’s Day at the $37.5, $40.0, and $42.5 Million price points.

Movie	Opening Weekend Prediction
Valentine’s Day	$48.45 Million
Percy and the Olympians	$33.58 Million
The Wolfman	$28.28 Million

Who Challenges Obama in 2012?

Sarah Palin’s recent hand gaffe has me convinced that she will not win the Republican nomination in 2012. She does not seem to have the political savvy, to be able to build up a successful Presidential campaign. Building a successful campaign is no easy feat and takes an entire organization. As Nate Silver points out, she is not surrounding herself with the right people that can give her the advice that she needs. She has little experience and resigned her Governorship in Alaska before it was over. She may be popular now but how will she look two years from now? Sarah Palin is currently trading at 23% as the favorite on Intrade. I refuse to short this right now because this contract is so far away from expiry and it is basically locking up money for 3 years. There will be better opportunities to bet on between now and the Republican nomination.

Mitt Romney is the favorite in my view for a couple of reasons. He has run before and got 2nd in both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. That takes an impressive organization and even though he didn’t win, he gave himself a very good chance. He is an effective organizer and can reach into his own personal fortune if he needs to. With McCain out of the way, Romney has a clear path to victory starting with New Hampshire. If he can win Iowa too, it’s over. Mitt Romney is currently trading at 21% on Intrade.

One of the downsides to Romney is that he is currently not in politics. I feel that in order to appear Presidential one must be constantly involved in public policy making. Whether it be Governor or Senate, you must be constantly serving or fresh from having served the public in some way. Personally, I feel we have no idea what the Republican nomination race is going to look like. There is a huge vacuum waiting to be filled and some one is going to fill it.

Two candidates currently on my horizon are Gen. David Petreus and Sen. Jim DeMint. It’s not clear to me that either of these people want to run for President, but I think both would have a really good chance if they entered the race. DeMint has constantly been a vocal supporter of mainstream conservative principles. He can speak very well and is the Senator for South Carolina. One of the early states in the race for the Republican nomination. Gen. Petreus is trading at 2.3% and Sen. DeMint can not currently be traded.

In the end, the 2012 Presidential election is way too far away to give any forecasts with reasonable certainty. Even a prediction by George Will, “In 2013, when President Mitch Daniels, former Indiana governor, is counting his blessings,” can not be reasonably taken seriously.

Opening Weekend Box Office Analysis (2/6/10)-(2/8/10)

This time the blizzard didn’t destroy me and my bet going long on Dear John. I should consider myself lucky for missing something so obvious, again. I don’t think this blizzard was as big as the last one and I had always thought that the effect of the last blizzard was around minus 10% to 15%. Dear John may have actually been bigger had the blizzard not hit. Other then the blizzard all signs pointed to a big weekend for Dear John and I couldn’t the Super Bowl making that big of a dent.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Dear John	$25,940,000	$30,468,614	17.46%
From Paris with Love	$11,610,000	$8,158,860	29.73%
--	--	Opening Weekend Average	23.59%

This weekend we have a 4-Day weekend with Valentine’s Day on Sunday and President’s Day on Monday. Tracking has the movie Valentine’s Day opening in first place for this weekend and even though it looks similar to last year’s He’s Just Not That into You, it appears to be tracking higher. The Wolfman with Benicio Del Toro could have a decent weekend.

Movie	MTC	RS
Valentine’s Day	$50 Million	$42.5 Million (Low 40’s)
The Wolfman	$33 Million	$32.5 Million (Low 30’s)
Percy and the Olympians	$26 Million	$27.5 Million (High 20’s)

Weekend Box Office Predictions & Bets (2/6/10)-(2/8/10)

For Super Bowl Sunday, a weekend that will no doubt hurt male movies the most, Dear John looks like the first real movie that has a chance to take the #1 Weekend spot from Avatar. With the Super Bowl on Sunday, I think Avatar will win Saturday but lose Sunday. Friday should go easily to Dear John so if it doesn’t my predictions and bets will be in trouble.

From Paris with Love looks like it is going to bomb and not do very well at all. Unfortunate, because I thought the director of Taken could have had another sleeper hit on his hands. This weekend I went long on Dear John at the $20 Million and $22 Million price point. I bet a little more than I usually do but that is because I felt I got better odds than I should have. No bets on Intertops since I didn't like those odds as much.

Movie	Opening Weekend Prediction
Dear John	$25.94 Million
From Paris with Love	$11.61 Million

Can You Filibuster Reconciliation?

Senator Jim DeMint seems to think so.

From The Hill article Republicans find loophole in budget ploy to push healthcare,

Though it has never been done, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) says he’s prepared to test the Senate’s stamina to block the Democrats from using the process to expedite changes to the healthcare bill.

Experts on Senate procedural rules, from both parties, note that such a filibuster is possible. While reconciliation rules limit debate to 20 hours, senators lack similiarconstraints on amendments and could conceivably continue offering them until 60 members agree to cut the process off.

The OBAMACARE.PASS.JUN10 contract on Intrade is currently being traded at around 35%.

Weekend Box Office Results & Analysis (1/29/10)-(1/31/10)

Well this week my model did well and helped me win this weekend. I won my hedge on Intertops and my original bets on Intrade as well. Edge of Darkness passed $16 Million but not the $18 Million that would have been disastrous for me. When in Rome came in around expected and my estimate underestimated it a little. Mel Gibson is finally getting work again not like he needed the money and Edge of Darkness will help him get over his past.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Edge of Darkness	$14.86 Million	$17,214,384	15.84%
When in Rome	$11.08 Million	$12,350,041	11.46%
--	--	Opening Weekend Average	13.65%

Here is tracking for “Dear John” and “From Paris With Love”, it seems clear that “Dear John” will be able to be the #1 Opening Weekend but Avatar will probably be #1 overall again. Sometime today it will be the #1 movie in the U.S all time. Incredible! Not only that, but the nominees for the Academy Awards were announced today. What a funny coincidence.

Movie	MTC	RS
Dear John	$24 Million	$17.5 Million (High Teens)
From Paris with Love	$12 Million	$15 Million (Mid Teens)