Election Day on Intrade

Well everyone, it’s finally here.  Please feel free to post comments or tweet me today.  Tell me your predictions, trades, and how you think it's going.  All the Senate Control contracts seem to be trading below 50%.  One of them is going to expire at 100%, so this is going to be a very interesting night.  Colorado, West Virginia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Washington are the hot states to watch for the Senate tonight. 

I personally have some contracts going long on Rubio (R) in Florida, Johnson (R) in Wisconsin, Murray (R) in Washington, Prop 19, Senate Neither, and Rep.Senate.50+.

I have contracts going short on Buck (R) in Colorado and Toomey (R) in Pennsylvania. 

I don’t have any House contracts.  I didn’t want to invest all the time and energy into them required.  I don’t think I’ll win everything today.  My PA, CO, and Prop 19 positions to be more specific. PA and CO are hedges against my Senate Control contracts and my position in Prop 19 is leftover from when it was still leading in the polls.  Good luck to everyone.  If I find any trades I think are good, I’ll tweet or post them after I’ve gotten what I need. 

Intrade Senate Snapshot (11/1/2010)

Well it now looks like the two most important states to watch will be Colorado and Washington. Washington being the most likely Republican upset and Colorado being the most likely Democrat upset. (D) Sestak's chances in Pennsylvania are now very slim and PPP came out with a poll showing (R) Toomey with a 5 point lead. Looks like my bet there will not win but I considered it a hedge against my Senate Neither trade which looks spot on the money now. If Washington goes to the Republicans (I have some contracts going Long on Rossi now) and Intrade gets all the other Senate races right, we'll see a 50-50 Senate, with VP Biden casting the tie breaking vote. That'd be kinda fun for the next two years.