Intrade Senate & House Forecast (10/25/2010)

The polls are going all over the place and it’s getting hard to believe any poll at face value. Unless polling is seriously underestimating the “enthusiasm gap,” I don’t think we’ll see a Republican Senate. It’s still in play but the clock is starting to run out. The question now is whether Republicans make it to 49. This also depends on a bunch of toss ups going favorably their way. Nevada and Illinois are starting to look Republican lean but Democrats are threatening in Colorado and Pennsylvania.

The House

The Senate

Colorado and Pennsylvania are looking to be the nail biters that everyone thought Illinois and Nevada would play. Sharon Angle seems to be in the lead right now with early voting going on so some of these polls gives us information on polls cast today. I'll think she'll win this one but it's still going to be close and she might not be worth at 62.9%. Illinois still has many undecideds but has been steadily trending Republican this cycle. California has also been steadily polling for Boxer even though Fiorina is still within striking distance.

Pennsylvania and Colorado have been very sporadic in the polls and Republicans could be more vulnerable there than previously thought. Bennet seems to be slowly catching up to Buck and may overtake him by election night. Polling in Pennsylvania has been mostly in favor of Toomey and he is definitely still the favorite now. I think this race is closer then it appears and I still think Toomey is overvalued.

Intrade Senate Snapshot (10/24/2010)

All the action on Intrade seems to be focused on the Senate races. Here is a quick snapshot of the political markets.

*Intrade considers Murkowski as Other in the Alaska Senate Market but as a Republican for Congressional control contracts.

Is Pennsylvania Now a Toss Up?

Yesterday, PPP surprised the hell out of me and reported that Democrat Joe Sestak now held a 1 point lead over Republican Pat Toomey. The result came from what I consider a reputable poster and  two Democratic internal polls also showed a lead for Sestak.  Although these internals are probably biased towards Sestak, the fact that these polls would show him in the lead at all, shows that the race has significantly tightened. 

Now, a new poll by a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows Sestak at 44% and Toomey at 41%.  Looking over past polls, I can only find two instances since September where Toomey polled 50% or higher.  If Toomey had locked this race up like it appeared, I would have expected many more results with him above 50%.  For example, (R) Ron Johnson has polled above 50% nine times in the Wisconsin Senate race since September. 

I decided to pull the trigger and short Toomey on Intrade at 75%.  In my opinion, he’s no longer a 3 to 1 favorite and I don’t know if I can honestly claim he’s still the favorite.  Polling in Pennsylvania will no doubt come out soon to try and confirm whether or not there is a trend in favor of Sestak.  I’m betting there is and that by election night, Joe Sestak will have another comeback to celebrate.

Intrade Senate & House Forecast - 10/19/2010

With two weeks to go the battle for the Senate has intensified.  More races seem to be in play and polling is starting to get sporadic. Two weeks ago, it seemed like we might only have three races to worry about, Washington, Nevada, and Illinois.   Now I am tracking 9 races with both candidates trading above 20% and under 80%. 

The House of Representatives

Predictions for the House have continued to get worse and worse for Democrats.  Each week that has gone by has seen Republican gains increasing and now bettors on Intrade are saying it is 63.9% likely that Republicans gain 55+ seats in the House of Representatives.  This would be a gain greater than 1994!

 
The Senate

Polls for the Senate are starting to get sporadic and the only trend that I can find is that most races are becoming more unpredictable or more competitive.  PPP and Rasmussen seem to be differing from each other more often than not and internal polls from both sides seems to be aimed at changing the perception of the races they poll and not realistically portraying the electorate as they should. 

By counting every individual seat, Intrade is predicting that Republicans will have a total of 49 seats.  Just enough for the Senate Neither contract to expire at 100%.  Despite the number of changes that have happened over the past week, Republicans seemed to be headed for just enough seats to not gain a majority.  This has been a trend throughout this electoral season and I expect it will probably continue until election day. Republicans seem to be competitive in many more races than Democrats and across the board are winning votes on the margins, where it matters most.

Senate Forecast	Democrats	Republicans	Independents
Grouped	52.07	48.06	2.08*
Individual	49	49	2

 

*Intrade counts Sen. Lisa Murkowski as a Republican for the Senate Control contracts.

Will Intrade Consider Sen. Lisa Murkowski to be a Republican or Independent?

Both.

I asked Carl Wolfenden (Intrade's Exchange Operations Manager), about how Intrade would handle the Alaska Senate Contracts and the Senate Control contracts if she won. Here's his answer.

Thanks for your enquiry. For the Alaska Senate race market Lisa Murkowski is considered an OTHER because Joe Miller is the official Republican candidate. But Murkowski is officially running as a Republican so if she wins the seat will be considered a Republican seat for purposes of our Senate control and Republican seats markets.

- Carl Wolfenden

I'm busy today but I will do the Intrade Senate Forecast later.  

Republican Senate May be a Bridge too Far

As it stands right now.  Of the four closest Senate races; Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia, Republicans would need to win all four in order to control 51 seats.  For those betting on Intrade, the situation gets more complicated with Murkowski putting up a fight in Alaska. 

The Republican candidate in Illinois, Mark Kirk was at one point in this electoral season, a 70% favorite on Intrade to win the seat. Right now, both the Democrat and Republican candidate last traded below 50%! Usually, candidates are overvalued in electoral markets, but the fact that the market is undervaluing both Kirk and Giannoulias shows how much of a toss up Illinois truly is. I have taken no position in this race and I’ll probably stay away until election night. 

In Nevada, Sharon Angle has continued to keep up with Harry Reid in the polls and it may finally be starting to go her way.  She raised an astronomical $14 Million in the 3rd quarter and is listed 1st on the Nevada ballot thanks to the fact that candidates are listed in alphabetical order.  For Sen. Harry Reid, staying on as Senate Majority Leader rests mostly with his ability to keep his own seat.  There aren’t very many scenarios where he wins Nevada and Republicans take over the Senate.  Sharon Angle last traded at 48.1% but there is currently a lot of 250 contracts bidding at 50.1%.

In Washington, Republican candidate Dino Rossi was almost considered out of it as the Democrat candidate Patty Murray looked like she was starting to run away with it.  A month ago, she was trading around the mid-60’s on Intrade and looked as good as a 2 to 1 favorite.  Rossi has come back to make it competitive but it still might not be enough. The latest Rasmussen poll continues to show Rossi but as Nate Silver recently pointed out, Rasmussen also has a history of overestimating the Republican’s chances in the state.  I’ll agree with traders on Intrade that Washington is currently leaning toward the Democrat.  Patty Murray last traded at 58% to win the Washington Senate seat. 

Finally, we get to West Virginia where a really popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin decided to run for Senate and is facing a tough electoral battle against Republican candidate John Raese.  West Virginia was mostly ignored during this electoral season until Raese won the primary and surprised everyone by catching up to Manchin and then him passing  in the polls.  A recent poll by PPP now has Manchin in the lead by 3% but he still remains behind by 2.4% in pollster.com’s average of the polls.  I favor Raese in West Virginia and I personally have some contracts shorting (D) Joe Manchin. 

What all these four races show is that the Democrats are not losing without a fight.  No doubt Republicans can win any one of these four races, but they have to win four races for a majority and that might simply be out of their reach. If I had to list which states are most likely to go Republican, I would list them in this order, #1 West Virginia, #2 Nevada, #3 Illinois, and #4 Washington.

Intrade Mid-Term Forecast (10/12/2010)

Republican’s chances to win the House and Senate continue to improve with every passing week. With three weeks left until election day, Democrats are not getting enthused to go to the polls and vote for their candidates with the same ferocity as Republicans. This enthusiasm gap continues to push race after race into the Republican camp.

The House of Representatives

Republicans are continued favorites to win the House, trading close to 80% to win control.

The biggest change in the chart below is that the probability of Republicans gaining 50+ seats in the House has increased 23.1% in less than 3 weeks! The contract is now trading at 64.1% and that’s practically 2 to 1 odds! The bulls are betting heavy on Republicans.

The Senate

Republicans continue to gain Senate seat after seat and Nevada is now the latest state favored by Intrade to fall to Republicans. The recent movement in favor of Sharon Angle may be coming from recent polls that show her in front and news that Sharon Angle is listed 1st on the Nevada ballot and Harry Reid is listed 7th. The Tea Party candidate Ashjian is listed 2nd however and might siphon off some votes from Angle. Currently, if you count each individual race Republicans are now favored to win 50 Senate seats.

Intrade Senate Forecast	Democrats	Republicans	Independents
Grouped	49.00	48.85	2.41
Individual	48	50	2