With the mid-term elections heating up, the Senate races on Intrade seem to be the only ones getting the attention. Here's the rundown of the 5 Senate races you need to know about if you want to trade successfully this November.
1.) Florida - Intrade Odds:(R) Marco Rubio 50% Vs. (I) Charlie Crist 47.5% Vs.(D) Meek or Greene 6%, Vol 5734
The Florida Senate race started to get interesting when Marco Rubio started seriously challenging Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination. It got really interesting when Crist dropped out of the Republican primary and decided to make an Independent run. The fact that this race is still close shows that it was a pretty smart move on Crist's part to not go after his party's nomination when it was clearly lost. Crist may be poised for a drop in the polls once the Democrats settle on a nominee but until now, he has been handling his Independent candidacy well and has managed to get a large percentage of Democrats on his side. Marco Rubio has recently started to poll ahead of Crist and is once again the odds on favorite, but Crist has proved that he is capable of fighting this to the end. This may be the beginning of the end for Crist and with Crist splitting the Democratic vote, Rubio might finally beat out Crist.
2.) Nevada - Intrade Odds:(D) Sen. Harry Reid 58.7% Vs. (R) Sharron Angle 44%, Vol 5315
The Democratic Senate Majority leader may find himself completely out of job this November facing off against Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle. Both candidates are very polarizing and with so much on the line for the Democrats and the Tea Party, this race is bound to stay heated until election day. Sharon Angle is not your typical Republican candidate but Nevada is not your typical state. Many will doubt whether or not she can pull out this upset and this could make for a prime opportunity for some trades as we get closer to November. Right now, I'll agree with the consensus and say that Harry Reid is in the lead, but watch out for Angle. With a bad election climate for incumbents and Democrats, Angle could come out as the beneficiary.
3.) California - Intrade Odds:(D) Sen. Barbara Boxer 57.3% Vs. (R) Carly Fiorina 43.9%, Vol 1754
Sen. Boxer is facing a tough re-election battle against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina. Boxer has built a significant war chest but Fiorina's ability to self fund her campaign if she needs too will help make this a tough battle. Recent polling has both Fiorina and Boxer in the lead with SurveyUSA differing in results from PPP and Rasmussen. Currently, I have a small short against Boxer because I think she is overvalued and has a significant chance of losing this November.
4.) Kentucky - Intrade Odds: (R) Rand Paul 75% Vs. (D) Jack Conway 25%, Vol 1683
Rand Paul, son of Congressman Ron Paul seems to be leading the Tea Party to victory in the Blue Grass state. With the latest polling showing Rand Paul leading by 5% points, his price on Intrade might be a little overvalued. Jack Conway, along with left wing sites such as Talking Points Memo and the Huffington Post have been trying to portray Paul as somebody who holds views outside the interest of Kentucky and mainstream voters. As long as Paul can avoid a serious misstep or scandal, he should be well on his way to becoming a Senator in the new Congress.
5.) Connecticut - Intrade Odds:(D) Richard Blumenthal 74.1% Vs. (R) Linda McMahon 28.5%, Vol 1616
With Chris Dodd retiring, the Democrat Richard Blumenthal is poised to take over. He faces a strong challenge from self funder Linda McMahon who has the money to make this a fight. Blumenthal has gotten some skepticism for exaggerating his military service in Vietnam but has continued to have a comfortable lead in the polls. A recent poll by Rasmussen has him up by 7% points and a Republican victory the odds on Intrade reflect that he is a heavy favorite. A Republican victory in Connecticut seems unlikely and if it did happen, a Republican takeover of the Senate might be the result.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
The Colorado Senate Primaries
I'm back and just in time for the Colorado Senate Primaries. Boy, did they get interesting at the last minute. For the Democrats, Sen. Michael Bennet has been trying to hold off a challenge from Andrew Romanoff who according to a poll done by SurveyUSA was leading the race by 3% as of two weeks ago. This led to the price on Intrade for Romanoff to rise to 74%.
For the Republicans, that same SurveyUSA poll also had Ken Buck beating Jane Norton (not surprisingly) by 9% points . But then yesterday, PPP came out with a poll that turned both races on it's head. That poll gave Sen. Bennet a lead of 6% points and Norton a lead of 3% points. Her first lead in the race in many, many, months.
So what happened in Colorado? Why did PPP show the race so differently from SurveyUSA, especially when both are reliable posters? I believe it is due to a number of factors.
1.) Money - Both Jane Norton and Sen. Bennet have raised more money then their respective opponents. A lot more money.
Sen. Bennet has raised $7,704,446 to Andrew Romanoff's $1,962,579. Jane Norton has raised $2,872,274 to Ken Buck's $1,260,043. Now this type of monetary difference may not make a difference among the hardcore party activists, who probably support Romanoff in the Democratic party and Ken Buck the tea party favorite in the Republican party. But it may make a big difference with Getting Out the Vote efforts and advertising for those undecided voters who are more non-nonchalant about voting and politics.
2.) Missteps by both Andrew Romanoff and Ken Buck.
Romanoff has been very negative against Bennet and has tried to paint him as the Washington insider even though he has been in the U.S Senate for less than two years. Some of these negative ads have not been entirely truthful and may have backfired.
Ken Buck has put his foot in his mouth with two statements these last two weeks and it may cost him the election. In one statement Buck said "Why should you vote for me? Because I do not wear high heels, I have cowboy boots. They have real bullsh** on them." And in another he insulted some of the birthers that unfortunately make up a portion of the Tea Party. "will you tell those [expletive] at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera?"
Whatever happens tonight, it will have been a very interesting race and the national media trying to paint these races as simply the establishment candidate vs. outsiders misses the point. All elections have individual characteristics that affect the narrative of the race. It is not just about how voters view the Tea Party and the Obama Presidency.
Daily Chuck Evaluation (As of Right Now)
Democratic Primary
Michael Bennet: 55%-60%
Andrew Romanoff: 40%-45%
Republican Primary
Ken Buck: 50%-55%
Jane Norton: 45%-50%
Disclosure
CO.DEM.SENATE.ROMANOFF - Selling Short - Avg 73.5%
CO.REP.SENATE.BUCK - Selling Short - Avg 65%
For the Republicans, that same SurveyUSA poll also had Ken Buck beating Jane Norton (not surprisingly) by 9% points . But then yesterday, PPP came out with a poll that turned both races on it's head. That poll gave Sen. Bennet a lead of 6% points and Norton a lead of 3% points. Her first lead in the race in many, many, months.
So what happened in Colorado? Why did PPP show the race so differently from SurveyUSA, especially when both are reliable posters? I believe it is due to a number of factors.
1.) Money - Both Jane Norton and Sen. Bennet have raised more money then their respective opponents. A lot more money.
Sen. Bennet has raised $7,704,446 to Andrew Romanoff's $1,962,579. Jane Norton has raised $2,872,274 to Ken Buck's $1,260,043. Now this type of monetary difference may not make a difference among the hardcore party activists, who probably support Romanoff in the Democratic party and Ken Buck the tea party favorite in the Republican party. But it may make a big difference with Getting Out the Vote efforts and advertising for those undecided voters who are more non-nonchalant about voting and politics.
2.) Missteps by both Andrew Romanoff and Ken Buck.
Romanoff has been very negative against Bennet and has tried to paint him as the Washington insider even though he has been in the U.S Senate for less than two years. Some of these negative ads have not been entirely truthful and may have backfired.
Ken Buck has put his foot in his mouth with two statements these last two weeks and it may cost him the election. In one statement Buck said "Why should you vote for me? Because I do not wear high heels, I have cowboy boots. They have real bullsh** on them." And in another he insulted some of the birthers that unfortunately make up a portion of the Tea Party. "will you tell those [expletive] at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on the camera?"
Whatever happens tonight, it will have been a very interesting race and the national media trying to paint these races as simply the establishment candidate vs. outsiders misses the point. All elections have individual characteristics that affect the narrative of the race. It is not just about how voters view the Tea Party and the Obama Presidency.
Daily Chuck Evaluation (As of Right Now)
Democratic Primary
Michael Bennet: 55%-60%
Andrew Romanoff: 40%-45%
Republican Primary
Ken Buck: 50%-55%
Jane Norton: 45%-50%
Disclosure
CO.DEM.SENATE.ROMANOFF - Selling Short - Avg 73.5%
CO.REP.SENATE.BUCK - Selling Short - Avg 65%
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