Feels Good to be Back #Winning

I'm back trading again. I was previously being backed by friends for the Mid-Terms. I had some wins but overall it didn't swing my way.  Could have been a huge win though,  so I don't regret some of my decision making.  Loss stung though and I was out of commission for a while. I'm back now though, with my own money getting ready for the 2012 Republican Nomination.

I'm still a big fan of Huckabee.  It's true that some of his posturing has shown that he might not be running again, but he can still jump in a couple of months from now and it might even work out better for him. These primaries are tricky.  I've got some money on American Idol too, we'll see how that turns out.  Can't believe I missed the Oscars, I bet there was some sweet action.  

Election Day on Intrade

Well everyone, it’s finally here.  Please feel free to post comments or tweet me today.  Tell me your predictions, trades, and how you think it's going.  All the Senate Control contracts seem to be trading below 50%.  One of them is going to expire at 100%, so this is going to be a very interesting night.  Colorado, West Virginia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Washington are the hot states to watch for the Senate tonight. 

I personally have some contracts going long on Rubio (R) in Florida, Johnson (R) in Wisconsin, Murray (R) in Washington, Prop 19, Senate Neither, and Rep.Senate.50+.

I have contracts going short on Buck (R) in Colorado and Toomey (R) in Pennsylvania. 

I don’t have any House contracts.  I didn’t want to invest all the time and energy into them required.  I don’t think I’ll win everything today.  My PA, CO, and Prop 19 positions to be more specific. PA and CO are hedges against my Senate Control contracts and my position in Prop 19 is leftover from when it was still leading in the polls.  Good luck to everyone.  If I find any trades I think are good, I’ll tweet or post them after I’ve gotten what I need. 

Intrade Senate Snapshot (11/1/2010)

Well it now looks like the two most important states to watch will be Colorado and Washington. Washington being the most likely Republican upset and Colorado being the most likely Democrat upset. (D) Sestak's chances in Pennsylvania are now very slim and PPP came out with a poll showing (R) Toomey with a 5 point lead. Looks like my bet there will not win but I considered it a hedge against my Senate Neither trade which looks spot on the money now. If Washington goes to the Republicans (I have some contracts going Long on Rossi now) and Intrade gets all the other Senate races right, we'll see a 50-50 Senate, with VP Biden casting the tie breaking vote. That'd be kinda fun for the next two years.

Intrade Senate & House Forecast (10/25/2010)

The polls are going all over the place and it’s getting hard to believe any poll at face value. Unless polling is seriously underestimating the “enthusiasm gap,” I don’t think we’ll see a Republican Senate. It’s still in play but the clock is starting to run out. The question now is whether Republicans make it to 49. This also depends on a bunch of toss ups going favorably their way. Nevada and Illinois are starting to look Republican lean but Democrats are threatening in Colorado and Pennsylvania.

The House

The Senate

Colorado and Pennsylvania are looking to be the nail biters that everyone thought Illinois and Nevada would play. Sharon Angle seems to be in the lead right now with early voting going on so some of these polls gives us information on polls cast today. I'll think she'll win this one but it's still going to be close and she might not be worth at 62.9%. Illinois still has many undecideds but has been steadily trending Republican this cycle. California has also been steadily polling for Boxer even though Fiorina is still within striking distance.

Pennsylvania and Colorado have been very sporadic in the polls and Republicans could be more vulnerable there than previously thought. Bennet seems to be slowly catching up to Buck and may overtake him by election night. Polling in Pennsylvania has been mostly in favor of Toomey and he is definitely still the favorite now. I think this race is closer then it appears and I still think Toomey is overvalued.

Intrade Senate Snapshot (10/24/2010)

All the action on Intrade seems to be focused on the Senate races. Here is a quick snapshot of the political markets.

*Intrade considers Murkowski as Other in the Alaska Senate Market but as a Republican for Congressional control contracts.