Saturday Box Office Update

Halloween II, The Final Destination, and Taking Woodstock are coming in exactly as I had expected this weekend. Money Metal Bets had a great post and some good reasoning on the box office this weekend, but I got the best of him on The Final Destination.

Looks like the competition from Rob Zombie's Halloween II was not enough to stop The Final Destination from raking in the cash with 3-D technology. Taking Woodstock came in as expected and Demetri Martin makes a respectable debut on the big screen. Nothing big, but his future is bright. Hopefully, he can get some bigger movies in the future.

From Nikki Finke's DHD,

FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM: Sources are giving me the following numbers for Friday:

1. The Final Destination 3-D (New Line/WB) NEW, Fri $11M, Estimated Wkd $26M

2. Halloween II (Weinstein Co) NEW, Fri $7M, Est Wkd $17.5M

3. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein/Uni) WEEK 2, Fri $6M (-60%), Est Wkd $17.5M

4. District 9 (Sony) WEEK 3, Fri $3M, Est Wkd $10M

5. Julie & Julia (Sony) WEEK 4, Fri $2.1M, Est Wkd $7M

6. G.I. Joe (Paramount) WEEK 5, Fri $2.1M, Est Wkd $7M

7. Time Traveler's Wife (WB) WEEK 3, Fri $2.1M, Est Wkd $6.5M

8. Taking Woodstock (Focus) NEW, Fri $1.4M, Est Wkd $4M

From Box Office Guru's Twitter Account,

FRI BO: Final Destination $10M/$24-27M wknd, Halloween2 $7M/$16-18M, I Basterds $5.5M/$16-18M, D9 $3M/$9-10M, GI Joe $2M/$7-8M.

I expect the FINAL.DESTINATION.+$25.0M contract to expire at 100, The HALLOWEEN. 2.+$15.0M contract to expire at a 100, and the TAKING.WOODSTOCK.+$5.0M contract to expire at 0.

I have no idea what number the HALLOWEEN. 2.+$17.5M contract will expire at.

Weekend Box Office

This week I'll be referring you to an excellent trader and regular commentator of this blog. Money Metal Bets, has a great post on the Box Office this weekend on his blog Prediction Market Insights. His reasoning is pretty solid and there is only one movie this weekend that I disagree with him on.

Mark Sanford burns Bulls on Intrade Again

Mark Sanford had a press conference to respond to the call of resignation made by the Lt. Gov Andre Bauer. He seemed a little ticked off and said he will not resign. He didn't take questions after the press conference even though he said he would.

The SANFORD.DEPART.DEC09 on Intrade jumped to 40% on the news that Mark Sanford was holding a press conference in response to the Lt. Gov.'s call. It quickly fell to 20.1% when Sanford made it clear that he was not resigning. Somebody got burned.





Update: 8:18 PM

TMZ gets Affidavit for Search Warrant

If you can read pdf files, the affidavit that TMZ linked is a real treat. We finally get an in depth view of the investigation. I recommend starting on page 9 which is actually an affidavit filed in California that came with the Texas affidavit. It is much more detailed and contains more information.

The TMZ article is pretty good and is summarizing the really juicy parts of the affidavit.

Dr. Conrad Murray withheld information about Propofol to the doctors and paramedics trying to save Michael Jackson's life. Dr. Murray's timeline of the day's events don't make any sense because of the number and length of cell phone cards.

I don't see how he doesn't get criminally charged with the death of Michael Jackson at this point. The JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 and JACKSON.MURDER.DEC10 should expire at 100.

L.A Times Finally Gets Useful Information

From the L.A Times article Lethal levels of propofol found in Michael Jackson's body, affidavit says [Updated]

L.A. County coroner's officials found lethal levels of the powerful anesthetic propofol after examining Michael Jackson's body, according to a search warrant affidavit unsealed today in Houston.

According to the search warrant, Jackson's doctor, Conrad Murray, told detectives with the Los Angeles Police Department that he had been treating Jackson for insomnia for about six weeks. He had been giving Jackson 50 milligrams of propofol every night using an intravenous line, according to the court records....

On the morning Jackson died, Murray tried to induce sleep without using propofol, according to the affidavit. He said he gave Jackson valium at 1:30 a.m. When that didn't work, he said, he injected lorazepam intravenously at 2 a.m. At 3 a.m., when Jackson was still awake, Murray administered midazolam.

Over the next few hours, Murray said he gave Jackson various drugs. Then at 10:40 a.m., Murray administered 25 milligrams of propofol after Jackson repeatedly demanded the drug, according to the court records.

Box Office, Rand Paul, and Michael Jackson

No box office predictions this weekend. I keep getting the #1 movie wrong but keep making up for it with other movies. I'm going to take a break from making box office predictions to clear my head.

Rand Paul made around $430,000 in one day for his money bomb. His goal was $1 Million so he fell way short of that goal but he has probably surpassed Trey Grayson in fundraising. The last figures we had for him was on June 30th and he had $603,000, with roughly $596,000 cash on hand. Rand Paul has started out well in this campaign. There is a long road ahead, anything can happen.

And big thanks to Jesse Livermore for bringing this to my attention. A pharmacy in Beverly Hills was searched in connection with the Michael Jackson manslaughter investigation. So far the source for the Fox News story has proven to be truthful with one of his predictions. We should see the JACKSON.MURDER contracts expire at 100 within weeks. I bought the contracts that I had sold back and will not be getting out anytime soon.

The Fox News story on Michael Jackson Manslaughter Investigation

Yesterday, Fox News had a story which sent the JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 and JACKSON.MURDER.DEC10 contract trading into the high 80's and 90's. Very good news for those who have been following this blog and have actually heeded my advice. This story by no means assures that those contracts are going to expire at a 100 but it seems more and more likely that Dr. Conrad Murray is going to be criminally charged with manslaughter.

I have a couple of thoughts on the Fox News story. I have no doubt that they truly have a law enforcement source who told them the information that they published. My only question is who is the source and how truthful is that person? What if that person is lying for God knows what reason? What if that person is just telling Fox News rumors that he is hearing around the office? What if they did it as a way to respond to the video that Dr. Conrad Murray made and released to the public. We don't really know.

The L.A District Attorney has dismissed the story as "completely and totally false." I wouldn't be buying at 90 with the D.A saying something like that.

The source in the Fox News story made two predictions,
1.) That Dr. Conrad Murray will be arrested and charged with Manslaughter within 2 weeks.
2.) That a L.A pharmacy would be searched prior to that arrest.

So we now have a way to see if the source is being truthful. If the 2nd prediction turns out to be true, we should see an expiry very soon. If not, we will have to consider that the source was not accurate and that we basically know exactly what we did before the Fox News story broke.

I am still going long on these contracts but I sold a bunch at 90 because I think it was a little overvalued at the moment and that the price would come down in the coming days. I plan to buy some of those contracts back if the price goes down significantly once the hype from the Fox News story has died down.

Rand Paul will win the Republican Primary in Kentucky

I just want to go on the record right now and say that. At first, I didn't think he had more than a 20% chance of winning the Republican Senate nomination and even though I am a big fan and was hopeful about his electoral chances. I wasn't willing to put a wager on it. I was even called out on it by Jesse Livermore.

Well, I changed my mind today because I saw this recent poll done by SurveyUSA. Trey Greyson, the favorite leads Paul 37% to 26%, only 11 points! The primary will be in 9 months and tomorrow on August 20th, Rand Paul is hoping to have a one day money bomb of 1 Million dollars. Rand Paul has never been elected to political office before nor has he ever run for political office before. To be polling in the double digits alone is an accomplishment. I didn't expect him to be competitive so soon.

Rand Paul, is the son of Republican Congressman Ron Paul and holds very similar views to his father. He is a Libertarian running in the Republican party merely because third party candidates don't really stand a chance in this country. He was not named after Ayn Rand as others may have told you.

I think Rand Paul is going to be a rising star within the Republican Party and the Libertarian movement across America. He gets lots of national air time on Fox News, appearing regularly on the Glenn Beck Show and that's advertisement you can't buy. I have no doubt that his supporters will be as ardent and hardcore as his Father's.

Rand Paul certainly has an uphill battle to climb. Trey Greyson is basically the protege and heir apparent of (R)Senator Jim Bunning and has much of the Republican establishment in Kentucky behind him. He also leads in fundraising but I think that will change after the weekend. After seeing the poll done by SurveyUSA and Rand Paul's fundraising ability, the Republican establishment might not be so quick to dismiss Rand Paul's candidacy and blindly support Greyson.

So, I've decided to take Jesse Livermore up on his offer and put my money where my mouth is. The terms of the wager aren't as good as before but I like my chances.

Daily Chuck Positions
REP.KY.SENATE2010.PAUL - 20 Contracts at 24

[Update] Box Office Returns - Weekend 8/14/09-8/16/09

Well, it looks like I was right on Time Traveler's Wife and really wrong District 9. I haven't been able to get the #1 movie right in a while now but I keep getting the smaller movies to make up for it. Needless to say this weekend was not a winner for me.

What happened with District 9 is that I built a position pretty early when tracking had the movie around $20 Million. I saw some good odds at $25 Million and thought I was getting a steal. When tracking went up to $25 Million the very next week, I kind of shrugged it off and didn't pay it too much attention. I really didn't think a movie about Aliens which was really about Apartheid could have been any good or would get any box office success. Boy, was I wrong.

Daily Chuck Accuracy
District 9: Prediction $27.3 Million - Actual $37,354,308 - 36.8% Off
Time Traveler's Wife: Prediction $18 Million - Actual $18,623,171 - 3.4% Off
The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard: Prediction $7.5 Million - Actual $5,642,137 - 24.8% Off
Bandslam: Prediction $5 Million - Actual $2,231,273 - 55.3% Off
Ponyo: Prediction $3 Million - Actual $3,585,852 - 19.5% Off

Movies Wagered On Average - 20.1%
Total Opening Weekend Prediction Average - 27.96%

Weekend Estimates

From BoxOfficeGuru's Twitter Account

FRI BO: District 9 $14M/$35-38M weekend, Time Traveler's Wife $7.5M/$20-23M, G.I Joe $7M/$21-23M, Julie & Julia $3.5M/$11-12M, G-Force $2M/$6-7M.

Looks like I am going to lose my District 9 positions. I'm hoping that it drops big today and that their was a huge rush to see it on Friday. I don't think it's likely though with the great reviews and Word of Mouth that it has been getting. Time Traveler's wife might help me cut my losses a lot for this weekend if it drops below $20 Million. That doesn't appear too likely either. This weekend has started out quite terribly for me. Let's see if it gets better.

Box Office Returns - Weekend 8/14/09-8/16/09

This week we have 5 movies being released with District 9 being the one everyone is betting on. There has been little to no action on The Goods, Bandslam, and Ponyo. District 9 is the one with the big question mark and I have seen predictions all over the place and reviews are coming in overwhelmingly positive. Hype and buzz on the internet seems through the roof but it reminds of much of the same hype for Watchmen.

No doubt, this movie will be better but I don't think the general public is clamoring for this movie like many may think. I am shorting District 9 because tracking has it around $25 Million, the theater count is low around 3,049, and G.I Joe is still out there raking in the big bucks. With all the other movies coming out this weekend, I feel District 9 is not going to be able to do really well at the Box Office.

For Time Traveler's Wife, I think Julie and Julia is going to take some of it's customers but still do relatively well.

Daily Chuck Predictions
District 9: $27.3 Million
Time Traveler's Wife: $18 Million
The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard: $7.5 Million
Bandslam: $5 Million
Ponyo: $3 Million

Daily Chuck Intrade Positions
DISTRICT.9.+$25.0M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$27.5M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$30.0M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$32.5M - Short/Sell
DISTRICT.9.+$35.0M - Short/Sell

TIME.TRAVELER.+$20.0M - Short/Sell
TIME.TRAVELER.+$22.5M - Short/Sell
TIME.TRAVELER.+$25.0M - Short/Sell

Intrade Consensus/Prediction
TIME.TRAVELER.+$15.0M - 75% Probability
TIME.TRAVELER.+$20.0M - 50% Probability
TIME.TRAVELER.+$25.0M - 25% Probability

DISTRICT.9.+$25.0M - 68% Probability
DISTRICT.9.+$30.0M - 59% Probability
DISTRICT.9.+$35.0M - 45% Probability

BANDSLAM.+$7.0M - 40% Probability

THE.GOODS.+$6.0M - 55% Probability
THE.GOODS.+$8.0M - 41% Probability

Virginia Gubernatorial Race

I have taken a small position going long on the VA.GOV2009.REP contract for a price of 62.5. I feel a little lucky because the last time I checked it, the best I could get was 70. Here is why I have I think he will win.





Their is only one poll where the Republican wasn't in the lead and he has since consolidated his lead with many polls saying he might win by double digits.

Here are the amount each have raised. Interestingly, Virginia has no limit on how much one can donate to a candidate. They just have to disclose who is giving the money.

Robert F McDonnell has raised $11,637,867
Creigh Deeds has raised $7,175,020

This election will take place November 3rd, so expiry will be a while from now and I usually don't like to get contracts so far out but I think McDonnell will continue to hold on to his lead and that I might not see the price I got ever again.

Health-Care Reform - Part 2

In this piece I will talk about ways to reform Health-Care that will decrease costs and help develop a better marketplace that is more robust and cost efficient.

We should start by letting individuals enjoy the same tax deductions and tax breaks that corporations have when providing health-care to their employees. These tax breaks for corporations help big businesses vs small business and incentivize people to find work and stay at that job even though they may not like it simply to have insurance. A lot of people don't want to lose their health insurance when they lose their job. Let them have the same tax breaks that corporations have and we will have more individual health-care plans that are best fit the people paying for them.

Let health insurance companies compete nationwide. Why this isn't already allowed is beyond my understanding. This rule can only restrict competition and increase health-care costs for all. By letting people choose plans from across the country, consumers will be able to find the cheapest plan and health insurance companies will have to compete more vigorously for their customers. As a result they will provide cheaper and better plans.

Expand the use of Health Savings Accounts. Make them easier to use and incentivize people to use them by giving them better or equal tax breaks as regular insurance plans. The best way to reduce health-care costs is for people to use their own money to pay for their own health-care. By letting people use HSAs where they save their own money and use them for health-care costs, people will be much more willing to search out the Doctor or medical care that gives them the same service for a cheaper price. We need to get rid of the current system of health-care where people go into a Doctor's office with little regard to the price because insurance is covering it. Doctor's need to have their prices in plain sight of all customers and make it clear what the costs are going to be.

One way to encourage people to use HSAs would be to allow HSA users the option to invest the money in their HSAs much like we do for IRAs and retirement accounts. This will encourage more companies to provide HSAs and will increase investment and savings around the country. Benefiting the whole economy.

We need to let people receive tax deductions or enjoy lower insurance costs if they get regular check-ups and stay healthy. We want to reduce health care costs in the future to reduce the use of Medicare and Medicaid. One way to do this is to make sure people get medical care before their problems get bigger and more expensive.

We need to reduce costs by having Tort Reform. I am no law or legal expert but it seems to me that Doctors are paying way to much for malpractice insurance and have to worry constantly about frivolous lawsuits. Doctors should be sued when they make mistakes and punished for them but many good doctors have to pay more because of frivolous lawsuits that increase their own malpractice insurance. One doctor who is a friend of my family has had two such lawsuits and his malpractice insurance went up dramatically because of that. He did nothing wrong in both instances and was basically punished for it. He in turn will pass on some of these increased costs to his customers and the cost of everyone's health-care will go up in turn.

Finally, we need to allow Doctors to deduct the cost of providing health-care to those who cannot afford it. This way Doctors will provide care to those who need it and still be compensated for their work.

I believe many of these steps will benefit the entire health-care industry. We need to reduce costs by getting government out of the way and not by getting more government involvement. Government does not know how to provide health-care, Doctors do. Let's let them make most of the decisions and make it easier for companies to provide Health Savings Accounts and insurance plans that meet the demands of consumers.

Box Office Returns - Weekend 8/07/09-8/09/09

G.I. Joe is looking to have a big opening of around $50 Million+ and I really cannot understand why. I don't like the trailers and I think the plot looks silly but the hype is building and this movie looks to be another mindless summer action movie that does really well at the Box Office. The G.I. Joe franchise has been around since my father was a child and millions of kids have grown up playing with the action figures (myself included) and watching the show on T.V.

I have not taken any position on this movie because I personally don't think it will get good word of mouth and do well, but the amount of theaters at 4,007 and the sudden turn around in they hype of the movie has deterred me from shorting the movie. Online ticket sales are doing well and I am not going to make a bet I am not comfortable with. I am fine with just sitting out and watching what happens.

Julie and Julia looks to be a hit with Meryl Streep and Amy Adams. I consider both of these actresses very, very, good and I think they are going to make another hit by counter-programming against G.I. Joe. I have not taken any positions on this movie either because

With regards to Perfect Getaway, I think the movie has the potential to be good but I think it is going to be crushed by the competition this weekend. I have not taken positions on any movies this weekend.

Weekend Predictions
G.I. Joe - $45 Million
Julie and Julia - $21 Million
Perfect Getaway - $5 Million

I know I said I would post Part 2 for Health-Care Reform but I forgot what day it was and that will be posted tomorrow.

Health-Care Reform - Part 1

I have stayed away from the healthcare contract on Intrade for many reasons. One, I consider myself very emotionally charged on the subject and I do no think that I can make an objective decision right now with regards to whether or not it will be passed. Two, the political situation regarding the public option changes quickly and suddenly with every newscycle. One day it looks like public option is going to be passed and then the next it looks like it is going to die. I don't want to get involved right now and have to pay attention to every little news story to make sure that my money is safe. Granted, every contract on Intrade that one acquires requires some constant attention, but the US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 contract on Intrade is a little too demanding on my time considering how volatile the contract has been.

My thoughts on the public option are these. I think it is a terrible idea. Having the government getting more involved in health-care is not a solution to control costs. If anything the costs of health-care will go up as a result of a public option. The state of Massachusetts has been running a similar health-care program and the costs have gone up and not down. The CATO institute has a good paper detailing the failures of the Massachusetts model here.

What seems to be the primary goal of the Democrats in passing the public option is to have the health-care business under government control and kill the insurance industry. I am no fan of the insurance companies and I think they have been doing a terrible job of helping their own customers but having a government run insurance company doesn't solve anything but getting more people crappy coverage. Now we as taxpayers are going to have to pay for an insurance company to run at a loss.

The Democrats want a single payer healthcare system, they cannot pass it right now so they want to have the government at least become heavily involved and take out some of the insurance companies. How do we expect private run companies that are trying to run a profit to compete with a giant subsidized insurance corporation that can provide more then they could at the expense of us, the taxpayers? The simple fact is that some of them will but many will not. They will be forced out of business and more and more people will have to go to the public option. Once enough people are using it and the insurance industry is all but dead, the Democrats will try to pass a single payer health-care system.

Now, I know we have problems in today's health-care system and costs are burdening the American public. But we need not sacrifice a private industry which is responsible for many of the great advances in medicine that we have seen over the past decades. Tomorrow, I will introduce reforms that will reduce costs, expand coverage, and keep the health-care business in the private market where it belongs.

Here is a recent special by John Stossel on Health-Care reform.

[Update] Box Office Returns - Weekend 7/31/09-8/02/09

Well, Funny People didn't do nearly as well as I thought and tracking was really, really, off for this one. I also had some stale bids that I couldn't take down because I didn't have internet access. The lesson I learned this week is to not put orders in that can only be canceled by me. I should have put orders that would have cancelled after a couple of hours. That's something that would have been relatively easy to do.

I actually came out ahead $4.05 when everything was all said and done this weekend. So I'm pretty happy that my mistakes didn't cost me much this weekend.

Aliens in the Attic didn't break ten million and G-Force simply proved to be too much competition. Funny People just didn't advertise itself well and the ads focused way too much on the drama aspects of the film. Universal has had a dismal summer.

Next week we have G.I Joe, Julie and Julia, and the Perfect Getaway.