Democrats Likely to Retain Control of Congress After 2010 Elections

Looking ahead towards the 2010 Congressional Midterm Elections, the Democrats seem poised to keep both houses of Congress despite the fact that Republicans are likely to take up to 30+ seats back. Currently on the Intrade Prediction Market, Republicans have a 36.5% chance of taking back control of the House of Representatives. This is despite the fact that the minimum bid on Intrade betting that Republicans will gain around 30+ seats is at 55%. The Democrats, with currently 257 members in the House can afford to lose 38 seats and still maintain control.

The Republicans winning anywhere from 30-35 seats in 2010 would still be a huge victory and certainly give them much more power to stop and stall legislation backed by the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Obama’s administration. Such a gigantic swing in the number of Congressional seats would also let the Republicans claim that the American people are turning against Obama’s policies and favor a more Republican/Conservative platform.

Luckily for the Democrats, the Senate is also very likely to be kept under their control. The contract on Intrade, on whether or not the Senate will stay in control of the Democrats is trading at 93% in what appears to be a lock. This will help the Democrats maintain that the majority of the American people still agree with them and support the Democratic Congress and the President.

If Intrade is right, then both parties will likely claim victory in the aftermath of election day. The Republicans will win a lot of seats, claim to have a public mandate and momentum, but will still be in the minority. The Democrats will lose a lot of seats and power but maintain majority control and not suffer another humiliating defeat like the 1994 Midterm elections. Ultimately, the night might ultimately prove to be a political draw with both sides benefiting and losing.