I was not completely convinced after this last special election that the entire political atmosphere had completely changed and as result I did not go shorting every Democratic contract on Intrade I could find. Scott Brown may have become the 41st Republican vote in the Senate but I believed it was more because he ran a great campaign while Coakley did everything she could do to lose. The Curt Shilling gaffe will secure Martha Coakley’s place in the history books. Scott Brown did campaign on being the 41st vote but there were bigger factors at play in this election than just Obama and Health-Care.
Most Congressional Democrats running for re-election are seasoned campaigners and will not screw up as badly as Coakley. For the ones that do, the White House will now take more direct control and they have reached out to David Plouffe to be more involved with the 2010 elections. The Special Election may have wakened up the Democratic establishment to how toxic 2010 might become for them.
As a result of the special election Obama Administration has taken a huge hit in it’s political capital and has gotten almost nothing for it. The healthcare bill that remained is now all but dead. The only chance that remains for health-care reform is to start from scratch or pass stripped down version that will have bipartisan support. I always thought it was foolish of Obama to go after Health-Care reform when the economy still has not recovered. The economy is bound to recover, if you focus on fixing that and the regulatory system, it could recover faster and better than before. Why not go after health-reform then, when the voters have seen you at work and actually fix something first? Going after health-care reform before the economy has recovered looks much like Bush going to Iraq when we haven’t finished up in Afghanistan.
Right now, I am going Short on OBAMACARE.PASS.JUN10 at around 35.5%.
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