Can Scott Brown pull an upset in Massachusetts?

Public Policy Polling dropped a huge bomb on Saturday Night. Their latest poll on the Massachusetts Special Election for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat has the Republican Scott Brown in the lead by 1% point! As a result, an election that was once an afterthought has become the primary battleground in the Health-Care debate. A Republican victory in Massachusetts to take away the 60 seat Democratic majority in the Senate would be truly disastrous for the Democratic party looking forward to the 2010 General Elections. However, Scott Brown is definitely still the underdog. Their are three polls which show Coakley in the lead. One by the Boston Globe that shows the Democrat Coakley up by 15% points, one by Rasmussen which shows Coakley up by 9%, and a Democratic internal poll which shows Coakley up by 14%.

Like all special elections, predicting the result is extremely difficult. The wide range of polls from accurate firms can attest to that. Even though, Scott Brown is the underdog, I think their is much good news in his favor that one has to take into account. He did better than Coakley in the last two debates (in my opinion), has the current momentum, and raised $1.3 Million dollars yesterday in a money bomb that his campaign was hoping to raise $500,000. With a week to go, the race has heated up tremendously. So much so that Coakley put a negative ad attacking Brown that seems to have backfired. The video was pulled by her campaign off of youtube. Personally, I give Scott Brown a 20% chance of winning this thing. PPP made a mistake with the New York Special Election but that may have been because the poll was conducted during the dropping out of one of the main candidates.

Daily Chuck Position – 45 Shares of MA.SPEC.SENATE.REP at 12%.