Weekend Box Office Predictions & Bets (1/29/10)-(1/31/10)

The big question mark this weekend is how much will Edge of Darkness gross for Opening Weekend? Mel Gibson’s new movie is based off a BBC TV series in the 1980’s and has the same director. From what I hear, the series was quite good and so have the reviews for the movie. Despite some predictions in the $20 Million+ range, my model is still predicting an Opening Weekend below expectations. When in Rome seems like it is going to come in right as expected and will probably not surprise anyone.

I found out recently about a betting site that offers betting lines for movies on opening weekend. I put some money on www.intertops.com and will be betting there as well as on Intrade. On Intrade I am shorting Edge of Darkness on the $16 Million price point for 60% and the $18 Million price point at 70%. On Intertops I hedged by putting equal bets on $11-$16 Million at +150 and $16-$21 Million at +150.

Movie	Opening Weekend Prediction
Edge of Darkness	$14.86 Million
When in Rome	$11.08 Million

P.S – Sorry, for the late posting but my internet was down for most of the day.

Twitter and The State of the Union

This is a pretty cool video of how Twitter is being used to measure how people are reacting to the State of the Union. The amount of information that could be gathered for research must be astronomical.

The Democrats are Falling Apart

So now after the humiliating defeat in Massachusetts, Obama has announced a three year freeze on discretionary spending. It’s something Obama debated against during the campaign and the left hates it. It looks like they are pandering to the Tea Party. But I think there might be a little turf war going on with the Congress and the White House.

The Congress screws up health-care way before Massachusetts, but that put the final nail in the coffin. He announces new banking regulation and a bi-partisan task force to cut the deficit. Before that task force can even be approved, he announces this new cut. The Senate has rejected his bi-partisan task force, probably because of his most recent move. Could Bernanke’s confirmation also be a casualty of this entire debacle. According to the Huffington Post, Democratic leaders are having a tough time getting the 60 votes and are making deals for some Senators to vote to just end debate and not have to approve Bernanke. Currently Intrade gives Bernanke a 94.5% chance of being reconfirmed.

The State of the Union is really going to be interesting now. What is he going to say? What policies is he going to pursue now with health-care going down the drain. The State of the Union is Wednesday at 9:00PM EST. What will he say?

Weekend Box Office Analysis (1/22/10)-(1/24/10)

Well just when I thought things were going okay. I get screwed over by $10,409. The Tooth Fairy did not meet some high expectations as I predicted but it wasn’t quite as low either. $14 Million was my break-even point and it went just right over. The good thing is that the model predicted that Legion would beat out Tooth Fairy which it did. Extraordinary Measures came in small like expected.

Movies	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Legion	16,380,000	17,501,625	6.85%
Tooth Fairy	11,570,000	14,010,409	21.09%
Extraordinary Measures	7,650,000	6,012,594	21.40%
		Average	16.45%

This week does not look too good for movies opening this week either. Avatar will probably be #1 again. It has already broken Titanic’s record and it will still be the #1 movie at the weekend box office. Amazing. I thought Edge of Darkness with Mel Gibson was building up a little word of mouth but I’m not so sure now. We’ll see how the weekend turns out.

	MTC	RS
Edge of Darkness	$15 Million	$22.5 Million (Between 21-24)
When in Rome	$11 Million	$12.5 Million (Almost Teen Millions)

The Political Aftermath of Scott Brown’s Victory

I was not completely convinced after this last special election that the entire political atmosphere had completely changed and as result I did not go shorting every Democratic contract on Intrade I could find. Scott Brown may have become the 41st Republican vote in the Senate but I believed it was more because he ran a great campaign while Coakley did everything she could do to lose. The Curt Shilling gaffe will secure Martha Coakley’s place in the history books. Scott Brown did campaign on being the 41st vote but there were bigger factors at play in this election than just Obama and Health-Care.

Most Congressional Democrats running for re-election are seasoned campaigners and will not screw up as badly as Coakley. For the ones that do, the White House will now take more direct control and they have reached out to David Plouffe to be more involved with the 2010 elections. The Special Election may have wakened up the Democratic establishment to how toxic 2010 might become for them.

As a result of the special election Obama Administration has taken a huge hit in it’s political capital and has gotten almost nothing for it. The healthcare bill that remained is now all but dead. The only chance that remains for health-care reform is to start from scratch or pass stripped down version that will have bipartisan support. I always thought it was foolish of Obama to go after Health-Care reform when the economy still has not recovered. The economy is bound to recover, if you focus on fixing that and the regulatory system, it could recover faster and better than before. Why not go after health-reform then, when the voters have seen you at work and actually fix something first? Going after health-care reform before the economy has recovered looks much like Bush going to Iraq when we haven’t finished up in Afghanistan.

Right now, I am going Short on OBAMACARE.PASS.JUN10 at around 35.5%.

Weekend Box Office Predictions (1/22/10) - (1/24/10)

This week looks to be really slow for movies opening this weekend. Avatar will probably be number #1 again. I only bet on one movie and I am going Short on Tooth Fairy. My main position is shorting $14 Million, so if it goes over that, I will not have a profitable weekend.

Movie	Prediction	Position
Legion	$16,380,000	None
Tooth Fairy	$11,570,000	Short, $12M, $14M, and $16 Million
Extraordinary Measures	$7,650,000	None

Weekend Box Office Analysis (01/15/10)-(01/18/10)

Here is how I did on MLK weekend.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
The Book of Eli	$39,550,000	$38,437,553	2.89%
Lovely Bones	$16,910,000	$19,910,348	15.07%
The Spy Next Door	$14,440,000	$12,877,043	12.14%
--	--	Opening Weekend Average	10.03%

Here is tracking for the next group of movies opening at the box office.

Box Office Tracking	MTC	RS
Legion	$17 Million	$15 Million (Mid-Teens)
The Tooth Fairy	$15 Million	$22.5 Million (Low Twenties)
Extraordinary Measures	$7 Million	$5 Million (Mid Single Digits)

Statement by John Delaney on Intrade's Crash Last Night

From Intrade's Forum.

Dear friends,

As some of you may have noticed our platform suffered an outage last night. For the outage and any inconvenience I am sincerely sorry.

The outage arose as a result of our primary internet service provider (ISP) having technical issues and an unrelated issue switching over to our back-up cloud computing solution. We have this morning implemented additional measures to ensure that should such an eventuality recur it will not cause a comparable outage.

Again my sincerest apologies and that of the team for the outage.

Sincerely,

John Delaney
CEO
www.intrade.com
Follow me on Twitter http://twitter.com/JDelaneyIntrade

Join Intrade.net on LinkedIn http://bit.ly/iyQlF

Scott Brown will be the Next Senator of Massachusetts

Well, it looks like Martha Coakley has conceded and the AP and CNN are calling the race for Republican Scott Brown.  Scott Brown has pulled off one of the biggest upsets in recent political history.  The Democrats have lost their 60 seat majority in the Senate that Al Franken waited about 6 months for. 

It’s unfortunate that the Intrade Prediction Market is down right.  It’s not the only site that experienced heavy traffic and I heard even the Drudge Report was down for a little while.  Still, I would have expected Intrade to be ready for something like this.  People are trading real money.  This is serious business. 

I’m currently still holding on to 30 positions at 12%.  I sold some at around 60% to make sure I didn’t lose no matter what happened tonight.  One of my best bets with regards to amount risked to amount won.  An amazing run on Intrade.  People who bought in under 40% got a great deal.  Congratulations to everyone who won.  Better luck next time to those who lost. 

To Sum it All Up

I bring you Jon Stewart. Boy is he angry that the Democrats have blown this race in Massachusetts. I’m glad to see him get so emotional when the Democrats fail. He does a very good job of showing why the Democrat Martha Coakley is probably going to lose. They mention the gaffes she makes and how she has completely caught unprepared to win the seat left to her by Ted Kennedy.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Mass Backwards
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

I’m still going long on Scott Brown and expect him to win with 51%. Even though turnout is apparently high. I still expect Martha Coakley to lose with around 47% of the vote. When the votes come in I expect we will have to wait until 60% - 70% of the vote to call it.

Lots of Surprises at the Golden Globes

Amazing, the Golden Globes shocked pretty much everyone.  Avatar, won Best Picture (Drama) and James Cameron won Best Director.  The win in the Best Director category covered my losses in the Best Picture (Comedy or Musical) category where I had suspected that Nine would go down in flames, too bad I picked the wrong two movies.  The Hangover won in a huge upset which nobody saw coming. 

Sandra Bullock’s win in the Blind Side completely subsidized my losses pulling for Carey Mulligan.  Robert Downey Jr.’s win in the Best Actor (Comedy or Musical) category which I knew was undervalued and helped me have a profitable night out of this venture.  Matt Damon’s performance in the Informant was forgettable and I think the rumors of him winning in this category were just that.  Even Robert Downey Jr. seems to have been surprised. 

Predictions and Bets for the 2010 Golden Globes

Awards shows can sometimes provide good betting opportunities. They are notoriously unpredictable and there are usually a couple of surprises. This year's Golden Globes look to be the same.

I mostly try to go pick undervalued underdogs and pass over slight favorites. In some categories, I’ll hedge and pick multiple candidates if I think the prices are good. The predictions with no price and position information are predictions with no money behind them. For the categories where I picked two candidates, the one ranked higher is usually the one bet on most.

Category	Prediction	Price	Position
Best Picture - Drama	Up in the Air	--	--
Best Picture – Comedy or Musical (1)	500 Days of Summer	16.3%	Long
Best Picture - Comedy or Musical (2)	It’s Complicated	13.0%	Long
Best TV Series - Drama	Mad Men	--	--
Best TV Series – Comedy or Musical	Glee	--	--
Best Actor - Drama	George Clooney	--	--
Best Actress – Drama (1)	Carey Mulligan	46.7%	Long
Best Actress – Drama (2)	Sandra Bullock	30.0%	Long
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical (1)	Robert Downey Jr.	21.2%	Long
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical (2)	Matt Damon	18.3%	Long
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical	Meryl Streep	--	--
Best Director Motion Picture	James Cameron	24.3%	Long
Best Supporting Actor	Christopher Waltz	--	--
Best Supporting Actress	Mo-Nique	--	--

I think Nine is going to do terrible at the Golden Globes because it was both a commercial and critical failure. As a result, I think the Best Comedy or Musical category to be wide open along with Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical. Sherlock Holmes was pretty good and some experts seem to think he has a good shot. I was going to only have one position in that category but I’ve seen a lot of late predictions with a Matt Damon upset. So I decided to hedge with some Matt Damon contracts.

Part of the reason that I think that I think Up in the Air will win Best Drama is because I think Avatar voters will vote for James Cameron in the Best Director category. Avatar is a great movie because of him and I think the HFPA will reward the person who is most responsible for what is soon to be the #2 highest grossing movie of all time. How do you not give him the Best Director award?

Intrade - (R) Scott Brown 50%, (D) Martha Coakley 50%

Latest news from the Intrade Prediction Market is that traders consider Scott Brown as even money. Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate in Massachusetts to replace the Senate seat left by Ted Kennedy is no longer the favorite. This on the Saturday before the election! Scott Brown has risen from 10% to 50% in one week.

Here is the chart for the Republican Scott Brown on Intrade.

 

Here is the chart for the Democrat Martha Coakley on Intrade.

Weekend Box Office Predictions (1/15/10)-(1/18/10)

Nobody was offering much this weekend and I don’t feel like setting prices. So I have no positions for this weekend’s box office. I have some bets on the Golden Globes, so don't worry, this weekend will not be gamble free. Regardless, here are my weekend predictions for the 4-day weekend. Book of Eli should get really close to $40 million for the 4-day weekend. Jackie Chan’s new kids movie doesn’t look like it will be too successful and I am predicting it to lose to Lovely Bones.

Movie	Daily Chuck Prediction
The Book of Eli	$39,550,000
Lovely Bones	$16,910,000
The Spy Next Door	$14,440,000

Box Office Update

Intrade's Box Office contracts for this weekend are Friday through Monday. Confirmed to me by e-mail with Intrade.

Intrade Update

The Massuchusetts Senate Race has gotten a little tighter. Rasmussen now has Brown within 2 points. As a result Scott Brown's chances have gone up. One interesting thing about the market as of this writing is that the Bid are equal to 101%. Some traders are also going long on the (MA.SPEC.SENATE.REP) contract when they could be going short on the (MA.SPEC.SENATE.DEM) contract for much cheaper. My guess is there are some new users on Intrade.

Can Scott Brown pull an upset in Massachusetts?

Public Policy Polling dropped a huge bomb on Saturday Night. Their latest poll on the Massachusetts Special Election for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat has the Republican Scott Brown in the lead by 1% point! As a result, an election that was once an afterthought has become the primary battleground in the Health-Care debate. A Republican victory in Massachusetts to take away the 60 seat Democratic majority in the Senate would be truly disastrous for the Democratic party looking forward to the 2010 General Elections. However, Scott Brown is definitely still the underdog. Their are three polls which show Coakley in the lead. One by the Boston Globe that shows the Democrat Coakley up by 15% points, one by Rasmussen which shows Coakley up by 9%, and a Democratic internal poll which shows Coakley up by 14%.

Like all special elections, predicting the result is extremely difficult. The wide range of polls from accurate firms can attest to that. Even though, Scott Brown is the underdog, I think their is much good news in his favor that one has to take into account. He did better than Coakley in the last two debates (in my opinion), has the current momentum, and raised $1.3 Million dollars yesterday in a money bomb that his campaign was hoping to raise $500,000. With a week to go, the race has heated up tremendously. So much so that Coakley put a negative ad attacking Brown that seems to have backfired. The video was pulled by her campaign off of youtube. Personally, I give Scott Brown a 20% chance of winning this thing. PPP made a mistake with the New York Special Election but that may have been because the poll was conducted during the dropping out of one of the main candidates.

Daily Chuck Position – 45 Shares of MA.SPEC.SENATE.REP at 12%.

Weekend Box Office Results (1/8/10)-(1/10/10)

This weekend I lost a little and won a little. Overall, a small loss for the weekend. I’m a little disappointed but the model is starting to turn out some interesting numbers. This week or the next, I should be able to add a variable that I think will help considerably.

	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Daybreakers	$18,000,000	$15,146,692	18.84%
Leap Year	$7,570,000	$9,202,815	17.74%
Youth in Revolt	$10,930,000	$6,888,334	58.67%
		Average	31.75%

Box Office Tracking (01/15/10)-(01/18/10)

These tracking numbers are all for the 4-day weekend.

Update: Intrade's contracts for this weekend are for the 4-day weekend, Friday through Monday.

	MTC	RS
The Book of Eli	$38 Million	$32.5 Million (Low Thirties)
The Spy Next Door	$20 Million	$27.5 Million (High Twenties)
Lovely Bones	$20 Million	$17 Million (Between 16 and 18)

Golden Globes Preview & Odds - Best Motion Picture - 2010

The Golden Globes which are scheduled one week from now can be traded and speculated on at the Intrade Prediction Market. The Daily Chuck will do a preview on a couple of awards in the next week in anticipation of the awards. Today, we will be looking at the Best Motion Picture category which The Golden Globes differ from the Oscars in one major way. They have two categories for Best Motion Picture, those that qualify as a Drama and those qualifying as a Comedy or Musical.

Best Motion Picture - Drama; The Favorite - Up in the Air; The Dark Horse - Avatar

For Best Drama, Up in the Air seems to be the heavy favorite despite the tremendous box office success and popularity of Avatar. The movie Up in the Air; starring George Clooney as Ryan Bingham, a man who travels around the country firing people, is a good movie in the sense that it captures the mood of the country in the economic mess that we are currently in. It seemed a little too long and boring for my tastes, but had some really good moments. Personally, I liked the Hurt Locker more but I can understand why Up in the Air is the favorite. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) is the group that decides the Golden Globes and they like to vote for movies with star power and a message. According to bettors on Intrade Inglorious Basterds and Precious don’t have much of a chance.

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical; The Favorite - Nine; The Dark Horse - 500 Days of Summer

For Best Comedy or Musical, Nine continues to the favorite in a category of relatively light weights. Nine has been a commercial bomb and has not received very good reviews. It has a 30% score according to the Top Critics on Rotten Tomatoes. This is the type of demographic that the HFPA is apart of and I think it shows the weakness of Nine in this category. Despite this, there doesn’t seem to be a movie that can compete to Nine in this category. It’s Complicated is funny but Meryl Streep has two movies in this category and votes for her might be split. The HFPA would never vote for The Hangover despite the fact that it is easily the funniest movie of the year. 500 Days of Summer at least made a profit and was commercially successful but may not be well known enough in this category to win. One interesting note about this market is the volume for 500 Days of Summer. At 214 it has traded more contracts than any other in the market. Maybe some traders are considering it a bargain?

Weekend Box Office Predictions (1/8/10)-(1/10/10)

This week, we haven’t had much action in the Intrade market but I am hoping it will pick up. I have some positions already but not as many as I want. Later on today, I will update this post, but here are my predictions for the weekend. Interestingly enough, my model gives Youth in Revolt a better weekend than Leap Year. I would have figured that Avatar would still crush any and all competition and any movies opening this weekend would suffer but honestly, how much more can Avatar make? Most people I feel who would watch Avatar have done so already. In any case, the chick flick Leap Year looks like it is going to get stomped. Too bad for Amy Adams, I kind of like her.

Movie	Prediction for Opening Weekend
Daybreakers	$18,000,000
Youth in Revolt	$10,930,000
Leap Year	$7,570,000

Box Office Tracking (01/08/10 – 01/10/10)

 

	MTC	RS
Youth in Revolt	$10 Million	$5 Million (Mid Single Digits)
Leap Year	$9 Million	$12.5 Million (Low Teens)
Daybreakers	$16 Million	$11.5 Million (Almost Teens)

Democrats Likely to Retain Control of Congress After 2010 Elections

Looking ahead towards the 2010 Congressional Midterm Elections, the Democrats seem poised to keep both houses of Congress despite the fact that Republicans are likely to take up to 30+ seats back. Currently on the Intrade Prediction Market, Republicans have a 36.5% chance of taking back control of the House of Representatives. This is despite the fact that the minimum bid on Intrade betting that Republicans will gain around 30+ seats is at 55%. The Democrats, with currently 257 members in the House can afford to lose 38 seats and still maintain control.

The Republicans winning anywhere from 30-35 seats in 2010 would still be a huge victory and certainly give them much more power to stop and stall legislation backed by the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Obama’s administration. Such a gigantic swing in the number of Congressional seats would also let the Republicans claim that the American people are turning against Obama’s policies and favor a more Republican/Conservative platform.

Luckily for the Democrats, the Senate is also very likely to be kept under their control. The contract on Intrade, on whether or not the Senate will stay in control of the Democrats is trading at 93% in what appears to be a lock. This will help the Democrats maintain that the majority of the American people still agree with them and support the Democratic Congress and the President.

If Intrade is right, then both parties will likely claim victory in the aftermath of election day. The Republicans will win a lot of seats, claim to have a public mandate and momentum, but will still be in the minority. The Democrats will lose a lot of seats and power but maintain majority control and not suffer another humiliating defeat like the 1994 Midterm elections. Ultimately, the night might ultimately prove to be a political draw with both sides benefiting and losing.