Happy New Year!

Well, it looks like the new year is finally upon us. 2009 was a pretty interesting year and even though there were not that many political elections, I was still able to find stuff to consistently trade and blog about. 2009 was terrible year for the economy and even though we got out of the recession (officially) we lost a lot of jobs and are making a slow recovery. 2010 looks to be an interesting year with mid-term elections to look forward. We will have a couple of interesting primaries to trade and ponder on until November.

I have no Box Office predictions this weekend because there are no movies opening this weekend. Next weekend, we have Youth In Revolt and Leap Year. Youth in Revolt looks kind of funny and I'll probably be watching it when it comes out.

Good Riddance 2009. May the next year prove to be infinitely more fun and enjoyable!

P.S Apparently, we are supposed to say it's Twenty-Ten, Not Two-Thousand-And-Ten. I don't really care but, it kind of sounds better to me, so I'll be using it.

Merry Christmas

No predictions for this holiday weekend. I got a new computer and was too busy moving everything around to do any meaningful predictions or bets for this weekend.

No Favorite in the Florida Republican Senate Primary

Bettors on Intrade are giving both Gov. Charlie Crist (REP.FL.SENATE2010.CRIST) and Marco Rubio (REP.FL.SENATE2010.RUBIO) a 50% chance of becoming their party's next Senate candidate. Marco Rubio continues to grow in popularity and if Charlie Crist doesn't do something to win back conservatives, he could find himself losing a primary a lesser known candidate in a state where he is the Governor. The latest Rasmussen poll of the race shows how dire the situation is for him right now.

Governor Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio are now tied in the 2010 race for the Republican Senate nomination in Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters finds Crist and Rubio each with 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Crist’s support has fallen from 53% in August to 49% in October. Rasmussen Reports noted at the time, “The fact that Crist has fallen below 50% in a primary against a lesser known opponent suggests potential vulnerability.”

Rubio’s name recognition has grown in recent months and he is now viewed Very Favorably by 34% of Likely Primary Voters. That’s up from 18% in August. As his name recognition increased, Rubio’s support in the polls has jumped from 31% in August to 43% today....

Crist angered many conservatives in the state when he embraced President Obama’s $787-billion economic stimulus plan. While the Republican establishment has endorsed Crist, many prominent GOP conservatives including Mike Huckabee, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and former Bush adviser Karl Rove are backing Rubio.

Marco Rubio is on a roll right now and just needs to continue focusing on campaigning and spreading his conservative message. He got a nice boost in recognition and publicity when Doug Hoffman the conservative candidate was almost able to win NY-23RD Congressional District. Rubio definitely has the momentum on his side right now and considering how early it is in the race, he has a very good chance of winning an election against a very formidable candidate.

Weekend Box Office Results (12/18/09)-(12/20/09)

This weekend was pretty frustrating. The blizzard that hit the northeast may have cost me some serious money and ruined my prediction. At the same time, I feel I only have myself to blame because a good prediction takes into account all possible variables that can affect the outcome and I did not take into account the weather. Ironic, considering one of the main messages of Avatar is nature and the power that it contains. Another weekend gone by and another lesson learned.

Avatar did amazing this weekend and despite the blizzard, it almost beat the December Opening Weekend record held by I Am Legend. It also had a Sunday percentage decrease (-3.1%) that was lower than it’s Saturday one (-4.6%). This helped push Avatar over $75 Million and helped me cut some of my losses by going long on a couple positions on $75 Million Monday morning. I think the Sunday decrease also showed the true potential that Avatar had this weekend without the blizzard.

Percentage wise, I still did very good this weekend and had a Absolute (%) Difference below 15%. It’s just too bad I bet on the wrong way. As long I can continue to make predictions within 20% of the actual, I’ll feel very good about my chances of winning on Intrade. Winning and losing can often come in streaks and in the summer I felt I was on a really hot streak that I would be paying for later. The good thing about betting on the box office is that you always have another opportunity the next week.

	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Avatar	$86.58 Million	77,025,481	12.4%
Did You Hear About the Morgans?	$7.35 Million	6,616,571	11.08%
Movies Bet On Average	--	--	12.4%
Total Average	--	--	11.74%

Weekend Box Office (12/18/09) - (12/20/09)

Update 3:34 PM EST

Well, it looks like my midnight prediction was way too high. Avatar made around $3.5 Million at midnight. Still good but lower than I was anticipating. Avatar feels like it is going to be big and with so many 3D screens, the number that my model spit out just kept making sense. I'm using some new variables and I'm pretty much trying them out this weekend.

Daily Chuck Predictions

Avatar: $86.58 Million
Did You Hear About the Morgans: $7.35 Million

I couldn't get the prices I wanted but I still think I'm getting the better side of things. 3D surprised everyone with Monster Vs. Aliens. 3D movies from my experience, seem to do better than expectations most of the time.

I Am Legend made $77.2 Million Opening Weekend in December 2007, without 3D. James Cameron is one of the few directors that carries a lot of weight around them. Avatar may not made the above numbers without 2D but 3D is a whole new different ball game.

Daily Chuck Intrade Positions

AVATAR.+$80.0M - Avg @ 50% - Long
AVATAR.+$85.0M - Avg @ 45% - Long

Avatar Has Finally Arrived

By tomorrow morning, we should know what Avatar will have made at midnight tonight. I'm expecting a bigger than expected number. I'll guess somewhere around $7-$10 Million. Tomorrow, I will post predictions for both Avatar and Did You Hear About the Morgans? Avatar is getting some pretty insane buzz and I think it could have the potential to be enormous.

Below is the latest Time and Sales price chart from Intrade. It appears that traders believe an $80 Million+ Opening Weekend is very likely. If the prediction turns out to be true, than the Opening Weekend record for December held previously by I Am Legend at $77.2 Million will be broken.

Here are some news articles on how tickets have sold so far.

L.A Times: Movie projector: 'Avatar' headed for $200 million-plus worldwide opening

One of the most expensive movies of all time is poised for a huge box office debut this weekend, though nowhere close to the biggest ever.

"Avatar" will likely gross about $80 million from Friday through Sunday in the U.S. and Canada, according to several people who have seen pre-release public surveys. Thanks to largely positive reviews, however, the people said the movie could easily outperform what polling currently indicates and end up even higher.

People close to the studio said executives are concerned about managing expectations for their costly picture going into the weekend. Fox's domestic distribution president Bruce Snyder said he expects the movie to open to $50 million to $60 million.

"Avatar" will benefit from surcharges at theaters with digital 3-D projection. About 60% of its theaters in the U.S. and Canada, and 30% internationally, are showing the movie in 3-D. Because Cameron shot "Avatar" using new 3-D technology, which has been a heavy part of the movie's publicity and advertising, the vast majority of its grosses are expected to come from screens that can display it. IMAX large-format 3-D screens are expected to be particularly lucrative.

Forty-four percent of advance ticket purchases at online ticket seller Fandango are for Imax screens, 43% are standard-size 3-D and just 13% are 2-D. At competitor MovieTickets.com, 55% are IMAX 3-D, 31% are regular 3-D, and 14% are 2-D.

Nikki Finke: 'Avatar' Now 78% Of Online Tickets Sales

UPDATE: That's as of this morning, according to the big online movie ticketseller Fandango. MovieTickets.com says Avatar currently accounts for 70% of all its ticket sales this week and is reporting 350 sold out Avatar performances. Both services say between 68%-78% ticket buyers are male. And that 75%-89% of all Avatar ticket sales are for 3-D or IMAX 3-D screenings.

Fandango also just surveyed more than 2,000 Avatar ticket-buyers and found:

* 76% consider themselves fans of James Cameron
* 45% say that "James Cameron's return as a director" was the main draw
* 72% say the positive advance reviews have increased their interest in the movie
* 70% say they do not care about the film's budget
* 72% had seen STAR TREK in theaters
* 62% had seen TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN in theaters
* 48% had seen TERMINATOR SALVATION in theaters
* 15% are ages 18-24
* 37% are ages 25-34
* 33% are ages 35-49

Weekend Box Office Results (12/11/09) - (12/13/09)

Well it feels good to have a successful weekend once again. I feel like a weight has been lifted off of my shoulders and will be able to concentrate better on Avatar coming out this weekend. I don't have any idea how it will come out yet but I'm definitely going to go watch it this weekend. I won all my bets this weekend, not by much but I'll take it. Here are how my predictions fared this weekend.

	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
The Princess & the Frog	$22 Million	$24,208,916	9.12%
Invictus	$12.5 Million	$8,611,147	45.16%
Movies Bet on Average	--	--	9.12%
Total Average	--	--	27.14%

Here's tracking for this weekend including Avatar.

	MTC	RS
Avatar	$72 Million	Almost High 60’s ($66 Million)
Did You Hear About the Morgans?	$6 Million	Mid Teens ($15 Million)

Weekend Box Office (12/11/09) - (12/13/09)

After talking to some of my professors, I've decided to keep working on my box office model but will not be using the results until I can get it the way I want. These estimates below came from the information I have but have been adjusted by me since my model is not completely ready.

Daily Chuck Predictions

The Princess and the Frog: $22 Million
Invictus: $12.5 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

PRINCESS.FROG.+$25.0M - Short - Avg 75%
PRINCESS.FROG.+$27.5M - Short - Avg 60%

Bettors say Tiger Woods is Likely to Lose Sponsorship

When it rains, it pours. More bad news for Tiger Woods, who is having a public relations nightmare over his many alleged affairs. Bettors on the Intrade Prediction Market are currently giving Tiger Woods a 63% chance of losing a major sponsorship deal by March 2010. The four sponsors in question are Nike, Gatorade, NetJets, and Accenture.

The (TIGER.SPONSORSHIP.MAR10) contract on Intrade has been a roller coaster as of recently and has reached a high of 90%, and then fallen quickly to 50% twice. This may be due to Gatorade announcing it has dropped the drink "Tiger Focus." Gatorade is still a sponsor and may have caused the large variance in prices.

The Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, and Stephen Colbert

Jesse Livermore over at Wiser than the Crowd, has a really interesting theory on Ben Bernanke's confirmation not going over easily. He thinks Volcker might be a potential candidate to try and replace Bernanke.

Stephen Colbert had a sketch last night on the Federal Reserve. It’s pretty good and I like seeing the Federal Reserve getting more attention. Stephen Colbert can make some really strong arguments that appeal to both Democrats and Republicans.

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Fed's Dead
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor U.S. Speedskating

Here is the latest closing price chart for the Bernanke contract on Intrade.

Weekend Box Office Results (December 4-6, 2009)

Well, after this weekend's results, it looks like I went a little overboard trying to use my model. The model is still in it's beginning stages and does not have that many observations. I tried to use what data I had to get meaningful predictions but I misinterpreted the information and ran with it. This weekend, I am going to be more conservative in my bets and in reading the data. As I get more information, observations, and experience, I will get bolder and more confident in my predictions.

	Prediction	Actual	Difference (%)
Armored	$13.9 Million	$6,511,128	113.48%
Brothers	$7.5 Million	$9,527,848	21.28%
Everybody’s Fine	$4.8 Million	$3,852,068	24.61%
Movies Bet on Average	--	--	113.48%
Total Weekend Average	--	--	58.12%

Box Office Tracking (12/07/2009)

	MTC	RS
The Princess and the Frog	$22 Million	Mid 20’s ($25 Million)
Invictus	$10 Million	Mid Teens ($15 Million)

Weekend Box Office (12/04/09) - (12/06/09)

Well this week, I am putting my model to the ultimate test. The results for two movies were around the expected range, one was not. When I first saw these results, I was surprised by the number for Armored. Right now, I don't have enough observations to be very confident in these predictions but I will have more as time passes. The good thing is that I don't have to risk too much to test out my prediction.

I wanted to have these predictions out sooner but I wanted to finish establishing my position first. So, don't try and get me to buy some Armored contracts at higher prices, I'm done buying for this weekend.

Daily Chuck Predictions

Armored: $13.9 Million
Brothers: $7.5 Million
Everybody's Fine: $4.8 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

ARMORED.+$8.0M - Long - Avg 50%
ARMORED.+$9.0M - Long - Avg 25%
ARMORED.+$10.0M - Long - Avg 22.3%
ARMORED.+$11.0M - Long - Avg 19.2%

Traders Betting on Bernanke

Bloomberg: Bernanke Has Support of Majority on Banking Panel (Update2)

By Scott Lanman and Alison Vekshin

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke has the backing of a majority of U.S. senators on the Banking Committee for a second term as Federal Reserve chairman.

Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said yesterday that Bernanke has “done a pretty good job,” and that anger in Congress over the Fed’s role in the financial crisis is “misplaced.” Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, said Nov. 20 he will “absolutely” vote for Bernanke.

Criticism of the central bank has mounted in Congress since President Barack Obama nominated Bernanke in August, with many lawmakers blaming the Fed for lax supervision of banks and for taking part in taxpayer-funded bailouts of companies including Citigroup Inc. Some senators said those concerns won’t stop them from backing the former Princeton University economist.

“He’s been far from perfect,” Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, said in an interview yesterday. “He was not quick enough responding last year to many of these issues that we care about, particularly in housing. I want him to focus on jobs. But I think he’s generally done a decent job.”

Traders on Intrade, an online futures exchange, give Bernanke a 90 percent chance of Senate confirmation, up from 89 percent yesterday.

The Fed under Bernanke has slashed interest rates almost to zero and pumped more than $1 trillion into the financial system to battle the deepest recession since the 1930s. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 64 percent from its 2009 low on March 9 as the economy showed signs of revival.

Policy makers last month repeated their pledge to keep rates low for an “extended period” to bring down an unemployment rate at a 26-year high. A government report Dec. 4 is likely to show that companies reduced payrolls for a 23rd straight month, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Not much liquidity though on Intrade.