Awards shows can sometimes provide good betting opportunities. They are notoriously unpredictable and there are usually a couple of surprises. This year's Golden Globes look to be the same.
I mostly try to go pick undervalued underdogs and pass over slight favorites. In some categories, I’ll hedge and pick multiple candidates if I think the prices are good. The predictions with no price and position information are predictions with no money behind them. For the categories where I picked two candidates, the one ranked higher is usually the one bet on most.
| Category | Prediction | Price | Position |
| Best Picture - Drama | Up in the Air | -- | -- |
| Best Picture – Comedy or Musical (1) | 500 Days of Summer | 16.3% | Long |
| Best Picture - Comedy or Musical (2) | It’s Complicated | 13.0% | Long |
| Best TV Series - Drama | Mad Men | -- | -- |
| Best TV Series – Comedy or Musical | Glee | -- | -- |
| Best Actor - Drama | George Clooney | -- | -- |
| Best Actress – Drama (1) | Carey Mulligan | 46.7% | Long |
| Best Actress – Drama (2) | Sandra Bullock | 30.0% | Long |
| Best Actor – Comedy or Musical (1) | Robert Downey Jr. | 21.2% | Long |
| Best Actor – Comedy or Musical (2) | Matt Damon | 18.3% | Long |
| Best Actress – Comedy or Musical | Meryl Streep | -- | -- |
| Best Director Motion Picture | James Cameron | 24.3% | Long |
| Best Supporting Actor | Christopher Waltz | -- | -- |
| Best Supporting Actress | Mo-Nique | -- | -- |
I think Nine is going to do terrible at the Golden Globes because it was both a commercial and critical failure. As a result, I think the Best Comedy or Musical category to be wide open along with Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical. Sherlock Holmes was pretty good and some experts seem to think he has a good shot. I was going to only have one position in that category but I’ve seen a lot of late predictions with a Matt Damon upset. So I decided to hedge with some Matt Damon contracts.
Part of the reason that I think that I think Up in the Air will win Best Drama is because I think Avatar voters will vote for James Cameron in the Best Director category. Avatar is a great movie because of him and I think the HFPA will reward the person who is most responsible for what is soon to be the #2 highest grossing movie of all time. How do you not give him the Best Director award?
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