Box Office Returns - Weekend 7/31/09-8/02/09

This week we have Funny People written and directed by Judd Apatow and starring Adam Sandler and Seth Rogan. The ads haves been somewhat mediocre, some good and some bad but I saw plenty of ads and I am in the key demographic. It also only has 3,000 theaters, less then Aliens in the Attic but it definitely will have more screens, which is what really matters. Reliable tracking is saying it will be high 30's and Adam Sandler can easily make this type of money in a weekend. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry made $34.23 Million opening weekend and You Don't Mess with the Zohan made $38.53 Million opening weekend.

Judd Apatow has made written/directed two great movies with 40 Year Old Virgin and Knocked Up and reviews for Funny People have been positive. I think that his brand name combined with Sandler's will give this movie a big Opening Weekend. I am expecting $37 Million+.

Aliens in the Attic is facing some steep competition with G-Force which is in 3-D and tracking doesn't have this passing $10 Million. I think it has the ability to reach that but not by much more.

Opening Weekend Predictions
Funny People: $37 Million
Aliens in the Attic: $10 Million

I have gotten some contracts shorting Aliens in the Attic at $11 - $14 Million and have gone long on Funny People $35-$40 Million.

Was Michael Jackson dead hours before Murray called 911?

This might be the most overlooked piece of information in the death of Michael Jackson. The chef for Michael Jackson has written a blog post on Larry King's blog detailing the timeline of Michael Jackson's death and includes some very interesting information.

The day of Mr. Jackson’s death, I didn’t see him. But his room was upstairs, so that wasn’t unusual. Dr. Conrad Murray had been coming over daily since I returned to the Jackson house in the beginning of June. He would normally arrive around 9 a.m. and leave shortly after lunch. I didn’t really know him well, but everyone in the house was friendly with each other, and he was no exception.

Dr. Murray usually came down to the kitchen around 10 a.m. to get Mr. Jackson something to eat or drink, but on June 25th he didn’t come downstairs. Again, this didn’t strike me as that unusual — I thought maybe Mr. Jackson’s rehearsal time had been pushed back and he was sleeping late.

This however contradicts what breitbart.com is reporting what the chef said,

Chase said Tuesday that she had gotten used to seeing Murray coming and going from the mansion. The doctor usually arrived about 9 or 9:30 p.m. and would go upstairs to Jackson's room, and she said she would not see him again before she left—sometimes late in the evening—but understood he was staying the night.

I'm guessing the 9AM in the Larry King blog post is a typo and is supposed to be 9PM. Jackson was taking Propofol to sleep. The only reason I could think of for Dr. Murray to arrive at 9AM in the morning would be to wake Jackson but to have him using Propofol for the entire night completely unsupervised seems extremely dangerous. It's one thing to not have safety equipment but to leave Jackson completely alone is criminally negligent.

Now this is pretty big and very important regarding the timeline for when Dr. Murray may have known Michael Jackson was already under cardiac arrest or dead. According to TMZ two of Murray's employees were at the storage facility picking up documents at around 9:22 AM Los Angeles time.

I now have two theories for the timeline.

Theory #1
Dr. Conrad Murray overslept past 10AM and Michael Jackson was already dead when he woke up. This happened around 12 Noon, he panicked, called for Michael Jackson's son Prince and started to administer CPR to try and revive Jackson. He calls 911 at 12:22 and he really is telling the truth when he told police investigators that he found Michael Jackson 20-30 Minutes before he called 911.

Theory #2
Dr. Conrad Murray woke up on time as usual somewhere around 9AM. He finds Michael Jackson already dead and knows he is in deep, deep, trouble. He calls his employees shortly thereafter and orders them to go to the storage facility and pick up all the documents related to Jackson. He doesn't come downstairs to pick up breakfast because he has more important things to do like covering his own ass. Finally he decides he cannot wait any longer and must stage a scene to make himself look good. He runs downstairs around 12PM and calls for Michael Jackson's son so he can be a witness that he tried to save Jackson and there was nothing he could do. He doesn't call 911 for another 20-30 minutes that way the body temperature of Michael Jackson won't look as suspicious. He overrules the paramedics declaring the time of death to help him in this goal.

Both theories make him look pretty bad but theory #2 is much more damaging. Quite frankly I don't know which one is more likely and Murray's employees picking up documents at the storage facility might be completely coincidental. Until we get the coroners report which has now been pushed back another week I don't think we can truly have any idea of the time of death.

In other related news Dr. Conrad Murray's home in Las Vegas was searched by authorities while he was there. I don't think they will find very much because Dr. Murray had plenty of time to move any incriminating evidence after his Houston office was searched days earlier. We can blame the Las Vegas District Attorney for this one because of some jurisdictional BS according to TMZ.

I believe the delay in the search warrant of Dr. Conrad Murray's home may have caused a delay in the coroner's report and that the Los Angeles District Attorney's office originally had wanted to release the report this week to come at the same time with criminal charges and an arrest. Apparently from the discussions of lawyers on news channels, this wouldn't be very unusual and is probably a smart move. However, the delay may also mean that they do not have enough evidence to arrest him and they are pushing it back to try and build up more evidence to charge Dr. Murray criminally. We must consider all posibilities.

And finally, TMZ is reporting that the sisters who went to the storage facility have differing stories about what was taken from the storage facility. One of them says she wasn't even there and that her sister took some vials while the sister who did go says she took a chair. TMZ has video of their differing stories in the article linked.

Michael Jackson was given Propofol

CNN and the AP have confirmed now that Michael Jackson was administered Propofol 24 Hours before his death. TMZ is saying the cops knew all along because Dr. Murray told them he gave it to Michael Jackson in one of his interviews.

Here is what appears to have happened. Michael Jackson was taking Propofol regularly to fall asleep and Dr. Conrad Murray was the one who would administer it to him. The administration of Propofol is extremely dangerous and Dr. Murray may have done it without the use of of an EKG or pulse oximeter which could have sounded a warning had Michael Jackson been in danger.

Dr. Murray may have fallen asleep or simply wasn't paying attention but whenever it was that he went back to attend Michael Jackson, he might have already been dead. At this point Dr. Murray tries to revive him, even in the presence of one of Michael Jackson's children and calls 911.

Dr. Murray says that he called 911 thirty minutes after he found him not breathing and that alone is very suspicious. The timeline is in question and will probably be very important to acquire a conviction. Three hours before Dr. Murray called 911, two of his staffers went to a storage facility and took some boxes with files. This could be entirely coincidental and completely unrelated but if the time of death for Michael Jackson is earlier then we think, then the information in those boxes could be extremely important.

When the paramedics arrived Michael Jackson was already dead and wanted to declare the time of death. Dr. Murray overruled them and doctors did not declare the time of death until he was already at the hospital. Dr. Murray still tried to revive him at this point according to TMZ.

After one of the interviews with Dr. Murray, another search is triggered of Michael Jackson's house and this search finds a stash of drugs under many aliases including Propofol. A manslaughter investigation is triggered and search warrants are executed to search Dr. Murray's offices in Houston.

Later this week we should get the final coroner's report with the long awaited toxicology report. If the toxicology report supports what the authorities already know and there aren't any big surprises, then I expect Dr. Murray to be arrested on the charge of manslaughter shortly thereafter.

Currently, I have 75 JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 Contracts going long at a price of 32.7

Box Office Returns - Weekend 7/24/09-7/26/09

Looks like G-Force leads the weekend with an $11-$12 Million Friday going towards a $31-$34 Million Weekend.

The Ugly Truth seems to have beaten $10 Million for its opening day but may not reach $30 Million for the weekend. It will probably fall somewhere in the $26-$29 Million range.

Orphan had a $5 Million Friday and looks to have $11-$14 Weekend.

An Interview with Adanthar

Adanthar, a professional poker player and Intrader was kind enough to grant me this interview about his thoughts on Intrade. Here is the interview.

The Daily Chuck: How long have you been playing poker online professionally?

Adanthar: Give or take 5 years

The Daily Chuck: What stakes do you currently play?

Adanthar: I don't play much now and when I do it's typically razz/stud 8 (no real reason, I'm just lazy), but I mostly played Multi Table Tournaments (all stakes) and Medium Stakes No Limit ($2/$4 - $5/$10)*

The Daily Chuck: How long have you been playing at that level?

Adanthar: Several years - I've never needed to step down but don't like playing too high.

The Daily Chuck: So what got you involved with Intrade?

Adanthar: Initially, I actually got involved through a politics forum thread. The idea that any given market was a perfect/optimized entity that could not be beaten always seemed laughable to me, and when several people suggested I put my money where my mouth is, I decided to take a few weeks and see how far I could run with it.

It very quickly became clear that Intrade was not just beatable, but that I probably had a better hourly rate spent actively trading than playing MSNL, so I never looked back.

The Daily Chuck: When were you most actively trading?

Adanthar: The best opportunities always happen when there's a lot of active volume, so I was most busy on any given primary night.

The Daily Chuck: How much money are we talking about? Was this all your money?

Adanthar: I started with $12,750 or so (10K on Intrade; I also had some money on WSEX's poker site and moved it to Matchbook, which had political contracts). The first 10K arrived shortly after the Iowa primaries and I moved the rest in mid-January.

On November 3, 2008, I had control over a number in the low six figures, about half of it mine. I've since moved the vast majority of it back out but am obviously satisfied both with my earnings and the outcome of the bet.

The Daily Chuck: Are you still currently trading? What contracts are you trading at the moment?

Adanthar: I left a small fraction of my former bankroll online and have a 25% ROI (Return On Investment) this year, but haven't been very active. My last major trade was being on the right side of the auto bailout contract in January, and I've had some other minor hits/misses in the last six months.

The Daily Chuck: How successful have you been on Intrade?

Adanthar: My overall ROI is greater than 400%.

The Daily Chuck: When dealing with politics almost everyone has a particular political party or candidate that they favor over another. What political party or candidates do you favor, how do you think this affects your decision making and what do you do, to try and separate what you want to happen from what you think will happen?

Adanthar: 90% of what I do is looking at statistical trends vs. human psychology. This is no different on Intrade than it is on a poker table. From looking at various forums (2+2, Intrade's own forums, FreeRepublic, DailyKos, etc.) I had realized that the vast majority of diehard political partisans (i.e. the people most likely to have money on Intrade) tend to support their preferred party's or philosophy's position on absolutely every issue and surround themselves with others who think the same way, which ultimately makes them unable to consider alternative viewpoints and, crucially, also makes them unable to accurately estimate voting patterns.

To put it another way, the same people that bet on the politician they want to win without regarding the likelihood of that actually happening are also the people that give their opponents proper odds to draw and then tell each other bad beat stories when the other guy gets there, reinforcing their biases in the process.

Personally, although I am a moderate Democrat, I am first and foremost concerned with hard data. My picks were not guided by whom I personally hoped or even thought would win except in the abstract - I was primarily concerned with where I thought the market would go next and, to a lesser extent, poll accuracy. Ultimately, while I thought Obama was a large favorite for the entire general election cycle, I was much more interested in where the blue line was compared to the red line on any given day and how I could profit off the likely movement over the next week or less. For example, I realized that Obama's stock would move up if he won the Wisconsin primary, even though, looking at the polls, his win was a foregone conclusion, so I held onto my Obama contracts until after that primary.

The Daily Chuck: Do you only trade political contracts?

Adanthar: I trade all contracts that involve multiple decision points. Most of the time, I stay away from decisions that are made by one person (Supreme Court nominations) since they are harder to handicap, but do follow all contracts that are determined by an election, a business success/failure, etc. that have multiple public variables.

The Daily Chuck: Do you think the prices on Intrade accurately reflect the true odds?

Adanthar: Not even close.

The Daily Chuck: Why do you think that is?

Adanthar: It's an inefficient, extremely beatable market and will pretty much remain so forever, just like every other market that is significantly influenced by human psychology (at this time, all of them.) While it's true that Intrade is smaller and thus more susceptible to a handful of individual traders' biases, the same effect applies to all markets; for example, the very obvious oil bubble and its deflation were brought on by speculation much more than any actual real-world demand for oil. Because markets are fueled by speculation, it should not be a surprise that humans, who are fundamentally irrational in many of their decisions, also often all speculate in one direction and force the price of an object away from its actual 'true' value.

The Daily Chuck: What type of contracts have you found to be the most exploitable?

Adanthar: Anything that ends quickly can be exploited simply because of the ability to leverage small wins.

The Daily Chuck: What's your biggest loss and win?

Adanthar: I think it's something like -$2500/+$11K in a night, respectively. It's hard to say for sure because I'd often trade several positions a day.

The Daily Chuck: What would be your biggest piece of advice for someone like me, looking to become a more successful trader?

Adanthar: In general, you simply have to learn to separate what you want to happen from what you think will happen. There are a few good books for this - I wholly recommend Fooled by Randomness in particular.

*($2/$4 – $5/$10) represents the small blind and big blind required to play at a poker table at Medium Stakes, the typical buy-in is 100x the Big Blind

No Box Office Predictions this Week

I've been kind of busy lately and I have to get ready to move to a new place soon. There doesn't seem to be much action on Intrade either so it's not like i'm missing anything. Though, I will try to provide some updates when the numbers come in for those of you who do bet this weekend.

Dr. Conrad Murray's office gets raided by DEA

TMZ, just learned that the DEA has raided the Houston office of Dr. Conrad Murray.

"We're told 8 Drug Enforcement Agency vehicles arrived at his offices about 30 minutes ago. Two LAPD detectives also arrived on scene along with uniformed members of the Houston Police Department and 10 members of the DEA's Tactical Diversion Team. There are another dozen or so DEA agents on hand.

The law enforcement agents, armed with a search warrant, entered the property and began going through the property."

According to a Fox News article a day before the D.E.A raid.

"investigators are using the results of preliminary toxicology reports, which have not yet been released to the public, to track down the sources of the drugs found in high concentrations in Jackson’s system."

I think the L.A.P.D and the D.E.A already know what caused Michael Jackson's death and have delayed the toxicology report being released to the public to gain time in the investigation against Dr. Conrad Murray. I think TMZ and other sources have been correct so far and that the authorities already know it was the drug Propofol that caused Jackson's death. Even the story in the LA Times titled Murder charges in Michael Jackson case are unlikely, source says had this to say if the drug Propofol is found to be the cause of death.

"If the toxicology report indicates that Jackson's death was caused by propofol, the powerful anesthetic found in his home, prosecutors could bring charges against doctors or others involved in giving him the drug. Prosecutors have discussed a range of possible charges in that scenario "all the way up to involuntary manslaughter," the senior law enforcement official said."

All that needs to happen for the Intrade murder contract to expire at 100, is for Dr. Conrad Murray to be charged for some type of unlawful killing, he does not need to be convicted which is much more difficult. The prosecutors just need to have enough evidence to maybe convince a jury.

Considering the speed and intensity of the investigation, along with the high profile news attention that it will be getting, I am expecting the District Attorney's office to throw the book at Dr. Murray. Right now I give a 50% chance that the Intrade contracts JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 and JACKSON.MURDER.DEC10 expire at 100.

[Update: 3:48 PM]

(CNN) — Detectives searched the Houston, Texas, medical office of Dr. Conrad Murray on Wednesday for “evidence of the offense of manslaughter,” Murray’s lawyer said.

40th Anniversary of Man's Historic Walk on the Moon

To celebrate this momentous occasion here is the speech made by JFK entitlded "We Choose to go to the Moon" which was Delivered at Rice University in Houston, Texas on 12 September 1962. Even Obama can't make a speech as good as this one.



Here is the video of Neil Armstrong first setting foot on the Moon.

Michael Jackson Update

News of the World, the British tabloid which broke the story about Michael Phelps smoking Marijuana is reporting that "criminal charges will be filed within days."

THE death of Michael Jackson is to become a MURDER investigation, the News of the World can reveal. An autopsy on the superstar has shown he died from an injected overdose of heavy-duty painkiller Diprivan. Police have told his family they will press charges against one or more people within DAYS and there will be a criminal TRIAL.

Now I don't trust News of The World as much as a I do TMZ but the source for the article is Terry Harvey, a long time friend of the Jackson family. This makes this a very interesting developmentbecause it seems to corroborate what TMZ has been saying all along. Deprivan is the brand name of the drug Propofol.

In another article written by Tonight; Ian Halpert, an Investigative journalist who has done an unofficial biography of Michael Jackson, reports for 60 Minutes II and is a corespondent for CourtTV has also been quoted that criminal charges are likely to be filed.

The late pop icon's unofficial biographer Ian Halperin has claimed the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) is investigating three people in relation to Michael's death.

Ian said: "My source didn't use the word 'homicide', but confirmed they are looking at three suspects. I think it's safe to assume it's the doctors. There are two doctors and then one other person who's definitely not a doctor. I'm convinced, based on information from my source, that yes, homicide or not, there will be charges laid against certain people for acting inappropriately and illegally."

TMZ, has reported that the doctor Conrad Murray has refused to give the LAPD a third interview and while I do not see this as an admission of guilt, I do feel this is a sign that Dr. Murray feels he is a target of investigation and is not willing to give them any information then he already has.

Most of this sounds like rumor and conjecture but multiple sources are repeating similar information and the chance of criminal charges being filed in the death of Michael Jackson appears to be much more likely.

Harry Potter's Magic Fades

Once again, movies prove how unpredictable they can truly be. After having a big Opening day and Thursday, many people raised their predictions for Harry Potter and expectations were for $90+ for the weekend. But according to Nikki, Harry Potter made $26 Million on Friday and is headed for an $80 Million weekend. Barely over the $77 Million that Order of The Phoenix made.

Usually, Nikki underestimates a little and $85 Million is still possible but looking unlikely. I definitely wouldn't put 38 Bids at a price of 52 like there is on Intrade right now. I reversed my position going long on 85 and 80 Million. I'm just glad I was able to short $100 Million a while ago and was able to hedge my position.

It seems that demand for Harry Potter was really pent up and the people who wanted to watch Harry Potter came rushing at midnight and Opening Day. Hearing that the reviews were good and that the movie appealed to girls more, I expected some of the audience to make a repeat viewing of the movie. I saw many tweets mostly from girls saying they would watch it again or already had. However, that doesn't seem to be the case and Harry Potter might have had better Word of Mouth had it stuck closer to the book. I saw many people complain about the ending and I didn't like it either.

[Update: 10:21AM]

From Box Office Guru's twitter account,"FRI BO: Potter $27M/$79-83M wknd, Ice Age $5.5M/$16-19M, Transformers $4M/$13-14M, Brüno $2.9M/$8-10M, Proposal $2.7M/$8-9M"

Busy Friday

Lots of news today, let's start with Box Office News first. Variety is reporting a $21.9 Million Thursday. Right in line with my prediction. I have gone long on $80 Million and $85 Million on Intrade.

With regards to the Michael Jackson murder contract, TMZ continues to report that it is a homicide investigation, that Propofol was definitely the cause of death of Michael Jackson and that Dr. Conrad Murray is now in Texas. The District Attorney's office has admitted there is a criminal investigation.

And last but not least, there have been interesting developments in Iran and the Intrade contract related to it. There has been some significant pressure downward in past days and we have seen contracts trading in the 70's and even one at 65. However, bids are back up in the 80's right now. Today there were protests that have the been the biggest in weeks coinciding with Friday prayers being led by Moussavi supporter, Rafsanjani. Bloomberg is reporting the number of people involved in the protests numbered in the millions.

"Some 1.5 to 2.5 million people took the opportunity provided by Friday prayers to get around a ban on protest rallies and gathered in the streets around the university, according to an estimate by Ayandeh News Web site."

Box Office Returns - Weekend 7/17/09-7/19/09

Harry Potter looks like it made $58 Million for Opening Day which is little higher then what I thought it could be. Regardless, Harry Potter is going to have a great 5-day opening compared to Order of the Phoenix.

Opening day has proven that the loss of IMAX theaters will not be as big of a factor as I had previously thought. It also shows that the hype and buzz of this movie is bigger then OOTP.

Here is my prediction for the rest of the weekend. I have currently shorted $100 Million on Intrade.

Thurs: $22.31 Million
Fri: $31.37 Million
Sat: $34.38 Million
Sun: $27.88 Million

$93.63 Million 3-Day

Michael Jackson

Intrade's latest addition to contracts that you can bet on is whether someone will be charged with the unlawful death of Michael Jackson.

According to TMZ, police are treating Jackson's death as a homicide and the primary suspect is Dr. Conrad Murray. Dr. Arnold Klein is also under investigation. It seems many of the drugs that Michael Jackson had in his home were acquired with false names, administered illegally and may have led to his premature death.

The drug the police authorities believe caused his death is Propofol, and the DEA is currently involved in the investigation finding out where the Propofol that Michael Jackson had came from.

In a couple of weeks the toxicology report is going to come out and I think it is going to confirm what the police believe is the cause of death. By then they should have the evidence they need to charge one of Michael Jackson's doctors with his unlawful death.

Some people may think of TMZ as just a tabloid but from what I have seen from their work in the past, they don't put out stories like this without doing their homework. They are a pretty trustworthy news source as far as I am concerned.

Right now, I'm betting TMZ has got this story right and that someone is going to go to jail for Jackson's death.

Harry Potter Makes 20 Million for Midnights!

Harry Potter just broke the midnight opening record. 20 Million+ says Nikki, I'm thinking that midnight will be around 21-22 Million when all is said is done. $50 Million Opening Day looks for sure, I'm expecting $52.5 Million-$57.5 Million for Opening Day.

[Update:1:20 PM]

Well it looks like Harry Potter made $22.2 Million at Midnight. That's simply incredible. Transformer's Opening Day record is definitely in Jeopardy.

Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Harry Potter is looking to beat $50 Million for Opening Day and possibly make more than $15 Million for Midnight showings if Online ticket sales are any indication.

From Fandango,

"(Los Angeles, July 13) -- Harry Potter is successfully casting his spell on moviegoers across the country, selling out more than 1,000 showtimes on Fandango, from San Francisco to New York, from Anchorage, Alaska to Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. As Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince opens tomorrow night at midnight, theater owners are scrambling to add additional showtimes throughout the witching hours on Wednesday morning. "

"The sixth Harry Potter movie currently represents:
•One of the fastest-selling titles in Fandango's nine year history, on track to replace Twilight as the company's third top-selling advance ticketer (following Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith and The Dark Knight, occupying the #1 and #2 spots, respectively).
•A higher number of advance tickets sold for Harry Potter 6 than sold for Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Iron Man or Sex and the City at the same point in the sales cycle on Fandango.
•96% of daily ticket sales on Fandango."

From Box Office Magazine,

"Monday Afternoon Update (1:16 p.m. PT): MovieTickets.com is currently reporting 1,300 sold-out showings of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince worldwide, including 950 midnight sellouts in the U.S. alone. Half-Blood Prince is currently outpacing seven of the top 10 all-time ticket sellers. The Warner Bros. release still trails Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, The Dark Knight and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire."

They aren't counting the same shows. Movietickets and Fandango have exclusive deals with different theater chains. Opening Day is definitely going to be big despite the fact that the "real" IMAX screens will not be showing Harry Potter. This is because IMAX made an exclusive deal for Transformers to be shown for a number of weeks and some of those overlap with the release of Harry Potter.

The only question is how much does Harry Potter gross this weekend? Harry Potter is very front loaded and it having a much bigger Opening Day does not mean that the weekend will increase likewise. Right now I have no contracts for Harry Potter, I think Harry Potter will definitely have a bigger weekend then the previous $77 Million made by Order of the Phoenix but I think the prices being asked are too high. I don't really feel comfortable going short or long right now.

[Update: 3:13PM]

From Box Office Magazine,

Tuesday Morning Update (11:43 a.m. PT): Fandango.com is now reporting more than 2,500 sold-out shows, and the ticketing site is currently selling an average of eight HP6 tickets per second. The wizard flick is currently outpacing Twilight in Fandango’s advance ticket sales, and by day’s end, it may even end up outpacing The Dark Knight, according to an official statement.

Tuesday Morning Update (11:36 a.m. PT): MovieTickets.com is now reporting 2,000 sold-out performances for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, including almost 1,500 midnight sellouts in the U.S. alone. The film is outselling all of the Harry Potter films at the same point in the sales cycle, with the exception of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.

Get the Popcorn Out!

Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation hearing is about to begin and everyone's watching to see if she crashes and burns. It's kind of like a NASCAR race, it's only interesting if someone screws up. Obama has skillfully picked Sotomayor knowing that her race and gender would make her harder to attack. You can watch for yourself here. The Republicans have been pushing the Latinos away and they have to tread carefully with how far they push Sonia Sotomayor. She's looking to a get very strong majority in the Senate if she doesn't trip up in the Hearing. If the Senate doesn't like the answers she gives to the Committee then she could find herself barely squeaking by.

I have no position with how the Senate votes on Sonia Sotomayor yet because I think that will largely depend on how Sotomayor does in her hearings. Let's see how she does.

[Update] Box Office Returns - Weekend 7/10/09 - 7/12/09

Well, it looks like I was very wrong about Bruno and very right about Beth Cooper. Bruno which opened Friday with around $14 Million looked like it could finish the weekend with $35-$37 Million. However, it had around a $9 Million Saturday which is absolutely horrible. This movie simply pushed it too far. People didn't like the many parts with male nudity and I heard about a lot of walkouts in many parts of the country. That should give you a good idea of how disgusting this movie is. At this point, $30 Million for the weekend might not even happen.

I originally wanted Bruno to go above $42.5 Million but when I saw the first numbers on Fri night, I was able to go short and make up my losses and more for Bruno. It seemed I went a little too short considering what Friday's number truly was but that doesn't matter anymore. Saturday was way worse then anyone could have thought so all my bets are looking really safe now.

I Love You Beth Cooper looks like it will finish right around $5 Million. There is simply too much competition and too little buzz. It's performing as many expected.

Next week, we have Harry Potter and it is selling like crazy. Many sell outs already. Doubt it can have a $100 Million weekend but you never know in this business. Anything can happen.

Box Office Returns - Weekend 7/10/09 - 7/12/09

This week, we have Bruno and I Love You Beth Cooper. Bruno is the sequel to Borat and as such I am expecting a much bigger weekend then what Borat did. The interesting thing about Borat is that it made more on its second weekend then it did on its first. This is because they released Borat with less then a 1,000 Theaters and then ramped up the amount of theaters later in the weekend when they realized it was actually making money.

Bruno Trailer



Borat made $26.5 Million its 1st weekend and $28.3 Million its 2nd weekend. That's $54.8 Million for it's first two weeks. Now to help us plan for Bruno, we should get a better idea of what Borat could have made if it followed the regular box office pattern that most movies do. With a plain 40% drop for its 2nd weekend and the same amount of revenue for the first two weeks, Borat would probably have made around $34.25 Million its 1st weekend and $20.55 Million its 2nd weekend.

Now I expect Bruno to do better then Borat because it's a sequel and it is being released in the summer. Considering the Hangover which is also rated R made $45 Million, I think Bruno can make something similar. I'm predicting around $43 Million for Bruno.

I Love You Beth Cooper is going against Bruno, Transformers and Ice Age 3. I don't why they thought it was good idea to release the movie this weekend but I don't expect it to get very much. The key demographic for this movie has other movies that it can go and watch. So I'm predicting around $5 Million for I Love You Beth Cooper.

Microsoft Needs to be Very Worried

Google just announced it is getting into the Operating System business. The software will be open sourced and it will be called Google Chrome OS.

Here is a quote from the Google Blog Announcement

Google Chrome OS is an open source, lightweight operating system that will initially be targeted at netbooks. Later this year we will open-source its code, and netbooks running Google Chrome OS will be available for consumers in the second half of 2010. Because we're already talking to partners about the project, and we'll soon be working with the open source community, we wanted to share our vision now so everyone understands what we are trying to achieve.

Speed, simplicity and security are the key aspects of Google Chrome OS. We're designing the OS to be fast and lightweight, to start up and get you onto the web in a few seconds. The user interface is minimal to stay out of your way, and most of the user experience takes place on the web. And as we did for the Google Chrome browser, we are going back to the basics and completely redesigning the underlying security architecture of the OS so that users don't have to deal with viruses, malware and security updates. It should just work.

Bill Gates really needs to think deeply about the direction Microsoft is taking. Because if he is not careful, he could find his company a victim of the changing times. Google is innovating, growing, and expanding, while Microsoft struggles to keep up in many key areas. Microsoft gained its dominance by doing what Google is doing right now. They created a product that made computers easier to use and benefited greatly from the lack of meaningful competition, especially in the OS market.

Google is now doing the same, coming into a market place and bringing innovative products linking them all together to support an ever expanding network to increase its market share. This is how Google has continued to grow from being just a search engine to something much, much, more.

If Google can accomplish its goal of creating a faster and easier to use Operating System, Microsoft could be an extinct or an endangered species in less then 10 Years. Google Chrome OS could be immensely popular and I definitely look forward to using it.

Constitutional Crisis in Honduras

The recently kicked out President of Honduras Manuel Zelaya is trying to return to power in Honduras with the help of the international community, the U.N, and the O.A.S.

Zelaya was kicked out by the military over a week ago and power was transferred to the Roberto Michletti, who was the President of the Congress. Because there was no Vice-President, the next in line for the Presidency goes to the President of Congress much like the Presidency would go to the Speaker of the House in the U.S in the absence of the Vice-President. It is also important to note that Michletti is a part of the same political party as Zelaya.

I hesitate to call the situation a coup d'état because the removal of the President was supported by both the Congress and Supreme Court of Honduras. Also, Zelaya was repeatedly ignoring orders from the Supreme Court declaring the vote on a referendum that he wanted "illegal." When the military refused to obey the orders of the President, he fired the head of the military. The Supreme Court reinstated the head of the military and then decided to kick out the President on the day that a vote was to take place.

The international community quickly condemned the "coup" and demanded that a President that has lost the legitimacy of Congress, The Supreme Court, and the military be returned to power. This President was kicked out by the government 6 months before his term was to expire. The government must have seen him as an extreme threat to Democracy considering that every President has one term in office only and that this rule is one of the hardest parts of the Constitution to change.

The new President, Michletti has stated that he will only be President until a new one is sworn in which would be decided by a Presidential Election scheduled in November. The new government is not without fault as it has made some mistakes on its own and has suspended some constitutional guarantees through a curfew. The curfew is supposedly temporary, and the constitutional guarantees suspended are only done during the hours of the curfew, but it is a little unsettling for a democracy to claim to be on the side of the Constitution while also suspending constitutional guarantees. The new government has also shut down some Pro-Zelaya media stations.

If the new government does not follow the Constitution, they could lose legitimacy in the eyes of the people of Honduras and may lose power themselves. A similar situation happened in Venezuela in 2002 when Hugo Chavez was temporarily kicked out by a coup in Venezuela. The new government changed so many rules, so quickly, that the military changed it's mind and brought Chavez back to power. The new Honduran government would be smart to learn from the mistakes of others.

Zelaya now is increasing the tension within the country trying to fly back into the country. Hugo Chavez has been nice enough to let him borrow one of his planes so he can fly around the world gaining support from the international community and try to re-enter the country of Honduras. The new government has issued arrest warrants for Zelaya and has stated that they will arrest him if he tries to enter the country. The new government has decided that they would rather he stay outside and has refused to let him enter the country.

Here is CNN video of Zelaya trying to return yesterday.



The interim government has now lasted for over a week. Which speaks to the legitimacy of the the new government. I don't see how Zelaya can come back into the country and restore order. He would be the lamest of all lame duck Presidents and I fear that Zelaya being reinstated would only lead to more bloodshed and an even deeper crisis in the Government of Honduras.

I'm glad that the methods Chavez used to gain more and more power in Venezuela have not worked in Honduras.

Sarah Palin resigns as Governor of Alaska

Haha, being the Governor of Alaska is even a waste of time for Sarah Palin! The current politicos are definitely underestimating her chances of being the next Republican Nominee. But I definitely don't like this move because it gives her even less experience to work with while running for the Presidency. Still, Mitt Romney better watch out.

Here is the video.

[Update 10:26PM]

I can't personally imagine why Sarah Palin has resigned. Many are saying scandal because of the odd timing(right before July 4th) and the way Sarah Palin spoke but I find it hard to believe that the Democrats couldn't have exposed her first if said scandal did exist.

My best guess is that it has to do with money. Sarah Palin has to deal with over half-million dollars in legal fees. Sarah Palin could be making some real money right now, so why stay in Alaska? Also, if she wants to get started running early for President, Alaska is the worst place to travel from and let's face it, Alaska is not the most influential state in the union.

Whatever the reason, Sarah Palin is here to stay and no doubt we will hear from her soon in the future.

Box Office Returns - Weekend 7/03/09 - 7/05/09

Transformers kind of wore me out last week and there doesn't seem to be much action this week in Box Office contracts either. I guess everyone is just getting ready for Bruno and Harry Potter. I will be providing updates when they come in. This week we have Public Enemies and Ice Age 3. Looking at the prices right now, expectations for the weekend have dropped for both movies. Let's see if the bettors on Intrade have gotten it right.

[Saturday - Update: 9:32AM]

Doesn't look like any of the box office contracts are going to expire long this week. Ice Age 3 had a 17.5 Million Friday and Public Enemies had a 9.6 Million Friday. The numbers for 4th of July are probably going to be roughly the same or lower because the holiday hurts what should otherewise be a bigger Saturday.

The Daily Show on Mark Sanford

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Shut Up, Mark Sanford
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Mark Sanford is having a Mid-Life Crisis

The Mark Sanford scandal is only getting bigger and stranger. This Governor doesn't want to resign but he isn't really leaving himself very many options.

First, he went missing and didn't leave a number. He was supposedly on the Appalachian trail but he comes back from Argentina and admits to an affair. Then e-mails to his mistress are revealed.

Here is the full video of the first press conference where he admits to the affair. Skip to around 7 Minutes if you just want to get to the juicy stuff.



This press conference was an utter disaster in my opinion. He simply spoke too long, was too detailed, and took too many questions. I don't think he should have taken any questions at all quite frankly. I think the people of South Carolina could have forgiven him because he was truly remorseful but you don't have to give them the gritty details.

When you have a press conference like this, honesty is fine, I even welcome it. But if you want to survive politically you should make a short statement, give the relevant details, explicitly state that the affair is over, and that you are moving on with your life and career. Do not take any questions and do not have your wife stand next to you.

Stanford then gives an interview with AP and makes the situation even worse. Saying he "crossed the line," with multiple women.

With every new revelation, comes new calls for his resignation but some Republicans wouldn't mind him in office a little longer because the Lieutenant Governor is running in the primary for the Republic nomination of Gov. in South Carolina and many don't want to give him a boost in the election by having Gov. Sanford resign.

Here is a video of the Young Turks analyzing the whole situation. I think it's pretty entertaining as well as informative.



At this point, I kinda of have to agree that Mark Sanford is probably going to go and with the end of the year being the cutoff point for the SANFORD.DEPART.DEC09 contract I kinda like going long on this one. This story just isn't going away, now Sanford has refused to give his financial statements and there are calls for ethic investigations and the like. I don't see how he can survive by the end of the year.

[Update: 3:32 PM]

Of Course! Right after I decide to finally go long on Mark Sanford he repeats he is not going to resign.