[Update] Box Office Returns 9/25/09 - 9/27/09

Obviously, I didn't do well on the box office this weekend. Surrogates pulled in a measly $14.9 Million for the weekend. I expected better from a Bruce Willis movie. I saw I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell which is in limited release right now. A proper review of the movie will be given soon. Here is how I did this weekend.

Daily Chuck Predictions

Surrogates: $22.5 Million; Actual $14,902,692 - 33.8% Off
Fame: $14 Million; Actual $10,011,682 - 28.5% Off
Pandorum: $5.5 Million; Actual $4,424,126 - 19.7% Off

Movies Wagered on Average - 33.8% Off
Total Average - 27.33% Off

Box Office Returns 9/25/09 - 9/27/09

Daily Chuck Predictions

Surrogates: $22.5 Million
Fame: $14 Million
Pandorum: $5.5 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

SURROGATES.+$20.0M (Going Long)
SURROGATES.+$22.0M (Going Long)

Chris Masse - Always Finding Fault

Chris F. Masse, over at Midas Oracle wrote a post criticizing a Financial Times article which was about betting on U.K politics. The FT article discusses Intrade as one of many possible places to bet on politics and gives readers a small description about the site.

Masse's criticisms are three fold.

[*] The Financial Times never mentions that InTrade has been breaking US laws by providing its betting services to US residents —whereas BetFair abides by the US laws. Will the Financial Times mention that InTrade CEO John Delaney fears to be arrested at a US airport, as soon as he lands the plane?

Well, I wouldn't expect the Financial Times to tell it's readers this, especially when the article discusses betting on politics in general and isn't just about Intrade. Not to mention that the Financial Times is a British newspaper and most of it's readers are not American.

[**] Total bullshit. The liquidity of InTrade’s prediction markets on finance has been thin since the CFTC fined InTrade with a $150.000 penalty —which is something the Financial Times never told its readers about.

I guess Chris Masse doesn't look at Intrade very often. The Daily DJIA Close. Fri Sep 25 2009 (Market Maker) Market on Intrade already has over 3,000 contracts traded just for today. I certainly wouldn't call that a "thin" amount of liquidity. There are also thousands of contracts that have been currently traded in the 2009 Year End Dow Jones Industrial Average market, the How far will the Dow fall before the end of 2009? market, and the US Economic Growth by Quarter market.

[***] So what, baby? At one time in the future, when the US legalize real-money prediction markets, BetFair will have more liquidity than InTrade on the US political prediction markets.

This isn't even really criticism, it's just a prediction (without much evidence to back it up) about what might happen in the future. I guess Chris Masse finds fault with the Financial Times because they don't agree with his predictions.

Basically, Chris Masse used the Financial Times article to try and take Intrade down a notch or two, even though it didn't reveal any new negative information. I expect better from a blog that claims to be the "#1 source of information on prediction markets."

Intrade Price Chart with American Odds

Here is a chart I made to convert the price on Intrade if going long or going short into American Odds.

American Odds (Going Long)	Intrade Price	American Odds (Going Short)
+1900	5	-1900
+900	10	-900
+567	15	-567
+400	20	-400
+300	25	-300
+234	30	-234
+200	33.3	-200
+186	35	-186
+150	40	-150
+122	45	-122
-100	50	-100
-122	55	+122
-150	60	+150
-186	65	+186
-200	66.7	+200
-234	70	+234
-300	75	+300
-400	80	+400
-567	85	+567
-900	90	+900
-1900	95	+1900

The Waiting Game....

Well, the JACKSON.MURDER.DEC09 contract is now trading in the mid 60's thanks to the uncertainty of when Dr. Conrad Murray will be indicted. We finally got some news to work off of in the past couple of days.

It looks like the police are going to close the investigation in a couple of weeks and present the case to the L.A District Attorney. Probably around the 2nd-3rd week of October. Then it will be up to the DA to charge Dr. Murray with manslaughter right away or use a grand jury to review the evidence and issue out the indictments. There are several reasons to do this according to Radar Online,

"The grand jury meets in secret, and no one associated with the proceedings, including witnesses can discuss anything outside of the grand jury room."

"More importantly, if Dr. Conrad Murray is indicted, there will be no preliminary hearing, and this is often done in high profile cases in Los Angeles. If an indictment is handed down, it goes straight to arraignment, and then to trial. The potential jury pool couldn't be tainted by saturated media coverage of a preliminary hearing."

We also know that now the DA is using a grand jury to subpoena Nicole Alvarez, the girlfriend of Conrad Murray that was probably the location of where Dr. Murray was sleeping when treating Michael Jackson.

Will the DA use the grand jury to indict Dr. Murray or will they issue charges right away. One thing that might give the DA motivation to issue charges right away is that they consider him a "definate flight risk" according to the Chicago Sun-Times.



I am now holding 1/3 of the positions that I was before, waiting for the DA to issue charges before the end of the year. I think they will and they are just using the grand jury to close all the holes left in the investigation. They do not want to issue indictments and then get blindsided by the Dr. Conrad Murray's testimony at court just because she was being "uncooperative."

[Update] Box Office Returns 9/18/09 - 9/20/09

Well as you guys can tell, I did really well with my predictions except for the one that mattered. Megan Fox made a really bad decision to be in Jennifer's Body. I wonder if we'll ever her see again? The Informant with Matt Damon came in as expected as did Love Happens.

Daily Chuck Predictions

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs: $26.5 Million - Actual: $30,304,648 - 12.6% Off
Jennifer's Body: $15.5 Million - Actual: $6,868,397 - 55.7% Off
The Informant!: $12 Million - Actual: $10,464,314 - 12.8% Off
Love Happens: $9 Million - Actual: $8,057,010 - 10.5% Off

Movies Wagered On Average: 55.7% Off
Total Average: 22.9% Off

College Football and Wong Teasers

For those of you who were wondering what the hell is a teaser and how to bet them, here is a small explanation from the paper NFL Sports Betting and the Basic Strategy Teaser: A Practical Application of Bootstrap Methods by Carl P

To play a teaser, a bettor chooses 3 games to wager on. On each of the games, the bettor receives an additional +6 points on the spread, and wins his wager if all three selected games beat the readjusted spread. For example, a bettor deciding to place a teaser on three games with point spreads of +2, -7.5 and +1.5 wins his wager if the rst team covers at +8, the second team covers at -1.5 and the third team covers at +7.5. If any of the teams does not cover the readjusted spread, 1 then the wager is graded as a loss.

Because scoring in the NFL most commonly comes in chunks of 3(as a result of a eld goal) and 7 (as a result of a touchdown), 3 and 7 are the most common margin of victory (see gure 1). Thus, a teaser in which all the readjusted lines \cross" both the 3 and the 7, i.e., unadjusted lines between -7.5 and -8.5, or between +1.5 and +2.5 (henceforth referred to as teasable games), should hold extra value not possessed by other teasers. This is known as a basic strategy teaser.

The Geogia Tech/Miami game crosses the 7, the Virginia Tech/Nebraska game crosses the 3.

The Florida State teaser is clearly the worst one, as I had the option to tease the BYU side from -7 to -1 crossing both the 3 and 7. I just can't make a bet that will make me want to root for my team to lose.

Date placed:
Sep 17, 2009 1:57a
3 Team Teaser #148966473
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread

(101) Georgia Tech +11½ Thu@7:45p
Competitor:(102) Miami (Florida)
Teased 6.0 points
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread

(142) Virginia Tech +1 Sat@3:30p
Competitor:(141) Nebraska
Teased 6.0 points
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread

(175) Florida State +13½ Sat@7:00p
Competitor:(176) BYU
Teased 6.0 points

I already lost this bet unfortunately, Georgia Tech got trounced in their recent trip to Miami. Their QB is terrible and Miami can pass the ball really well.

As I recall, wong teasers are profitable for the NFL and not College Football, but I don't remember where I heard it or if it's true.

Box Office Returns 9/18/09 - 9/20/09

Daily Chuck Predictions

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs: $26.5 Million
Jennifer's Body: $15.5 Million
The Informant!: $12 Million
Love Happens: $9 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

J.BODY.+$15.0M - Long

College Football

I made a teaser bet on College Football for this weekend.

Date placed:
Sep 17, 2009 1:57a
3 Team Teaser #148966473
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread

(101) Georgia Tech +11½ Thu@7:45p
Competitor:(102) Miami (Florida)
Teased 6.0 points
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread

(142) Virginia Tech +1 Sat@3:30p
Competitor:(141) Nebraska
Teased 6.0 points
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread

(175) Florida State +13½ Sat@7:00p
Competitor:(176) BYU
Teased 6.0 points

Risk US$ 55.56 to win US$ 100.01

In order to win, I have to win all three of these games, much like a parley. The tease is that they give me 6 points on every spread.

Let's see if i'm any good betting on sports.

The Daily Show on ACORN

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
The Audacity of Hos
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Healthcare Protests

[Update] Box Office Returns 9/11/09 - 9/13/09

Well it looks like I did a really good job this weekend with my box office predictions. At least the ones that mattered anyway. Tyler Perry did pretty well and easily won the weekend. Whiteout and Sorority Row basically took the same amount of money and they must have done a good job of taking each other's customers. 9 did pretty well and came in as expected. Tim Burton's movie are always hyped up a little bit and its opening on wednesday makes it look like it had a weak opening. It'll make money and Tim Burton will keep making movies.

Daily Chuck Predictions

Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself - $23.5 Million; Actual - $23,446,785 - 0.2% Off
9 - $9.5 Million; Actual - $10,740,446 - 13.1% Off
Whiteout - $11 Million; Actual - $4,915,104 - 55.3% Off
Sorority Row - $8 Million; Actual - $5,059,802 - 36.8% Off

Movies Wagered On Average - 6.65% Off
Total Opening Weekend Prediction Average - 26.35% Off

Box Office Returns 9/11/09 - 9/13/09

Well after a very boring Labor Day weekend we get three movies opening this weekend. 9 opened Wednesday and made $3.1 Million on it's Opening Day. None of the movies open with more then 3,000 theaters and it looks to be a slow weekend.

Daily Chuck Predictions
Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself - $23.5 Million
Whiteout - $11 Million
9 - $9.5 Million
Sorority Row - $8 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

Shorting
BAD.MYSELF.+$27.5M
9NINE.+$12.5M

Obama's Speech on Health-Care

The Intrade contract on the Public Option didn't really see a big change in price thanks to the President's Speech to Congress. Republican Joe Wilson even heckled the President yelling "you lie". He apologized immediately after and shows us the kind of respect the President has across party lines. This could really rally the Democrats and give them the shift in momentum that they need.

One thing that will help them along these lines is the Economy getting better. Democrats will be able get credit for the economy getting better and use it to their advantage. This is why I think health-care reform was doomed from the start. The Obama Admnistration had barely "fixed" the economy and went directly to reforming health-care. It's sort of like George W. Bush going into Iraq when we hadn't quite finished the job in Afghanistan.

I doubt the economy is going to get better enough to help the Democrats get the Public Option but anything is possible. The speech didn't look like it helped much with the Public Option much either. The price on Intrade went up a little bit and has now basically come back down.

I still don't have a position on the public option contract but I'm inclined to think
that it will fail. I don't want to short it at this price though.

Here is the price history.

Did Intrade Predict the Resignation of "Green Jobs Czar" Van Jones?

On September 5th, during the labor day weekend, Van Jones (Special Adviser for Green Jobs at the Council on Environmental Quality in the Obama Administration) resigned over controversy raised by Glenn Beck of his radical past.

This is a pretty big win for Beck and the hardcore right. Liberals might not like that they are being bullied by someone they consider to be a right-wing lunatic. Will anyone notice though? The Van Jones controversy has been brewing over on conservative radio and internet, but it had barely been noticed by the mainstream media. It is now the middle of labor day weekend and the Obama Administration has killed a story before it even gets started. Pretty smart.

The Price Data for the Intrade contract VANJONES.DEPART.DEC09 was pretty interesting.

Date - Time - Price - Volume
Sep 5, 2009 - 8:18 AM EDT - 69 - 85
Sep 5, 2009 - 8:18 AM EDT - 69 - 85
Sep 5, 2009 - 11:01 AM EDT - 69 - 5
Sep 5, 2009 - 11:06 AM EDT - 80 - 1
Sep 5, 2009 - 2:01 PM EDT - 80 - 2
Sep 5, 2009 - 2:01 PM EDT - 80 - 5
Sep 5, 2009 - 5:29 PM EDT - 71 - 1
Sep 5, 2009 - 5:29 PM EDT - 70 - 3
Sep 5, 2009 - 10:26 PM EDT - 88 - 10
Sep 6, 2009 - 1:04 AM EDT - 88 - 13
Sep 6, 2009 - 1:04 AM EDT -90 - 20

Here it is in a graph.


At around 8:18 AM on September 5th, someone wagered $1,173 to win $527 that Van Jones would resign. This was the very first action on the contract! News that Van Jones was going to resign didn't come out until way later in the day. The first tweet I got about it was at midnight. The Drudge Report, didn't have the story until around 3AM this morning. Whomever, bought those contracts this morning either knew something on the inside or made an amazing prediction.

That bettor put a significant amount of money that Van Jones had at least a 69% chance of leaving his job. I would have given it a much lower chance considering the media didn't seem to be picking the story up and Friday is usually the day that one would dump this type of news.

Intrade, has made another big prediction thanks to the people that use it and risk their own money. Had you asked most political pundits if Van Jones would resign, I doubt most would say yes. Had you asked them to wager $1,173 to win $527, I'm sure that even out of the ones that did say yes, very few would have had the conviction to place the bet. But someone did, and they turned out to be right. This is just another example of how predictions markets are revealing cutting edge information through the price and market mechanism.

Labor Day Weekend Estimates

Looks like All About Steve is going to win the weekend. Gamer is going to have a slow labor day weekend and Extract comes in as expected.

Friday
All About Steve: $3.4 - $3.8 Million
Gamer: $2.5 - $2.9 Million
Extract: $1.2 - $1.6 Million

Four Day Weekend.
All About Steve: $13-$15.5 Million
Gamer: $9.5-$10.5 Million
Extract: $5.3-$5.8 Million

From Box Office Guru,

FRI BO: Final Destination: $3.6M/$14-16M 4day

All About Steve: $3.5M/$14-16M

Gamer: $3.3M/$11-13M

Basterds: $3M/$12-14M

Halloween 2: $1.5M/$6-7M.

Potential Game Changer in Virginia?

In the Virginia Gubernatorial Election of 2009, the controversial thesis that Republican Bob McDonnell wrote back in graduate school has given the Intrade contracts regarding that election with quite a jolt. In one day the price for VA.GOV2009.REP contract dropped from 75% to 60%.



It seems that now the price has somewhat stabilized on Intrade around 65% with the knowledge of two polls one by PPP and the other by Rasmussen, that the thesis has not had a major impact on the current state of the anticipated vote.

The thesis could be a momentum starter for Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds who desperately needs it. Bob McDonnell needs to just stay cool and acknowledge that the thesis is not a big deal because it is 20 years old and doesn't reflect all of his current beliefs. He needs to not lose credibility with some other scandal for the public to buy his excuse. If he can do that, he'll probably go on to win.