Missed Opportunity by Intrade

It's too bad that Intrade never decided to make a contract about Zelaya returning to power in Honduras. It would have been interesting to follow. If Intrade had made a contract, it probably would have expired today at a 100. The New York Times has an update on the political situation there.

By ELISABETH MALKIN
Published: October 30, 2009

MEXICO CITY — A lingering political crisis in Honduras seemed to be nearing an end on Friday after the de facto government agreed to a deal that would allow Manuel Zelaya, the deposed president, to return to office.

The government of Roberto Micheletti, which had refused to let Mr. Zelaya return, signed an agreement with Mr. Zelaya’s negotiators late Thursday that would pave the way for the Honduran Congress to restore the ousted president and allow him to serve out the remaining three months of his term.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton confirmed on Friday that Mr. Zelaya and Mr. Micheletti had approved what she called “an historic agreement.”

“I cannot think of another example of a country in Latin America that, having suffered a rupture of its democratic and constitutional order, overcame such a crisis through negotiation and dialogue,” Mrs. Clinton said Friday in Islamabad, where she has been meeting with Pakistani officials.

Nate Silver Weighs In on Intrade Price

Nate Silver has decided to weigh in on the race in New Jersey and the split in the polls where some of the polls show Christie in the lead and others show Corzine in the lead.

By Nate Silver

There's a rather strange split in the polls in New Jersey's gubernatorial race: those conducted by live interviewers have Jon Corzine leading by an average of 4.2 points, but those conducted via IVR (automated scripts or "robopolls") have Chris Christie leading by an average of 3.0 points...

An automated poll tends to be associated with lower response rates, since an automated script can't do as much a human to coax someone into an interview, and therefore sometimes tends to reach a more enthusiastic set of respondents (in effect, it may serve some of the same functions as a very tight likely voter screen)...

For that matter, I'm not yet ready to make a forecast for New Jersey; I certainly don't see it as self-evident that Jon Corzine ought to be as much as a 2:1 favorite, which is where Intrade has him now.

Intrade Election Wire (October 29, 2009)

Giving you the latest predictions on Intrade for you.

New Jersey Gubernatorial Election	Bid	Ask	Last
(D) Corzine	65.5%	70%	67.1%
(R) Christie	34%	35%	34%
(I) Daggett	1%	2.9%	2.1%

Virginia Gubernatorial Election	Bid	Ask	Last
(R) McDonnell	96.1%	97.9%	98%
(D) Deeds	2%	4.5%	5%

NY-23rd Congressional Election	Bid	Ask	Last
(D) Owens	50%	52%	50%
(C) Hoffman	46.5%	47.5%	47.5%
(R) Scozzafava	5%	9.9%	5%

What is Going On in New Jersey?

Yesterday, betting on Corzine looked like a sure thing. He seemingly had momentum and a new Suffolk University poll had him in the largest lead of the election. In that poll Corzine is ahead 42% to Christie's 33%, a full 9 point lead.

Now, two new polls that have come out with Christie in the lead.

	Rasmussen	Public Policy Polling
(R)Christie	46%	42%
(D)Corzine	43%	38%
(I)Daggett	7%	13%

And as a result the price on Intrade for Gov. Corzine(NJ.GOV2009.DEM) has gone from a high of 74.8% and has now dropped to 60% with a current Bid of 58% and Ask:62.1%

I guess the lesson here is to trade off of trustworthy polls. SurveyUSA,which might be the best pollster out there said Friday that Christie was +2. Now, all of a sudden yesterday we are supposed to believe that Christie is down by nine points? Sorry, I don't think so. I am currently shorting (D)Corzine(NJ.GOV2009.DEM)and almost switched positions yesterday. I'm glad I didn't.

Chris Daggett Has a Better Chance of Being a Governor Than Creigh Deeds

That's what the prediction market Intrade is saying. Unbelievably, political traders and bettors on Intrade are predicting Independent candidate for Governor of New Jersey Chris Daggett has a better chance than Democratic candidate for Governor of Virginia Creigh Deeds. This has to be very embarrassing for Creigh Deeds whom the White House is already blaming for having lost the Gubernatorial Election that has not even taken place yet.

Personally, I believe that this is the result of a panic in the Creigh Deeds Derivative on Intrade. (D)Creigh Deeds is far behind in the polls. SurveyUSA last had him behind by 19 points, but he is a main candidate representing the Democratic Party. In a state that voted for Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate's chances have to be better then 3%!

Chris Daggett definitely doesn't have a chance of being Governor of New Jersey and is clearly trading high as the result of good press coverage as a potential spoiler in the New Jersey Gubernatorial election. Quite frankly, he might not even get 20%. Ultimately, market prices can be highly influenced by people's emotions and partisan thinking. In this case it might not matter very much, neither Deeds or Daggett stand a good chance of winning and it's possible they might both be overvalued!

Political Traders on Intrade currently have Independent candidate for Governor of New Jersey Chris Daggett at 7%. The current Bid and Ask as of this writing is Bid:6% Ask:7%



Political Traders on Intrade currently have Democratic candidate for Governor of Virginia Creigh Deeds at 3%. The current Bid and Ask as of this writing is Bid:3.1% Ask:4.9%

Weekend Box Office (10/23/09) - (10/25/09)

Daily Chuck Predictions

Saw VI: $27 Million
Astro Boy: $12 Million
Cirque du Freak: Vampire's Assistant: $9.5 Million
Amelia:$3.5 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

SAW.VI.+$25.0M - Long
SAW.VI.+$27.5M - Long

ASTRO.BOY.+$10.0M - Long

Afghanistan: The War and The Election

As you know, one of the hot topics besides Health-Care Reform is Afghanistan and whether or not we should have a surge of troops similar to Iraq to gain back control of a war that was ignored by the government and overshadowed by the Iraq War. Obama has now taken over the Presidency and has had to clean up multiple messes including this one. Eight years after September 11th, we still have not captured or killed Osama Bin Laden and the Taliban is still fighting and killing us for control of the country.

If I was Barack Obama I would take my time with a decision to send more troops also. Quite frankly, I don't think anybody really knows what to do. On the one hand, Obama has Generals that turned around the Iraq War saying we can win Afghanistan also and are restless over delay for a decision.

On the other hand, we have already been there eight years and President Karzai is practically forced to accept a runoff because roughly a third of his ballots are fraudulent. The run-off election will be held on November 7th, and then we might have to wait days and maybe even weeks to get the results. Vice-President Biden has also been very vocal in his opposition to a large increase of troops.

Can President Karzai win a run-off now that he has been forced to accept that a lot of his ballots were fraudulent? Does Dr. Abdullah Abdullah stand a chance? Does it even matter who wins? So many questions and variables regarding Afghanistan to consider.

Right now, Intrade is Predicting a 70% chance that an announcement will be made to send over +10,000 troops to Afghanistan by the end of 2009.

I'm very skeptical any foreign entity can retain control of Afghanistan for a lengthy amount of time. The United Kingdom could not. The Soviet Union could not. And now after eight years the United States finds itself not fully in control and on the verge of a bigger conflict.

If the United States increases the involvement of troops in Afghanistan I believe it should accomplish these goals.
1.) Destroy as much of the Taliban and Al Qaeda as possible.
2.) Establish control for the local civilian government.
3.) Train a large, self sufficient, Afghan Military to take over control.
4.) Get out quickly.

Not many people know that the Afghan government left in place when the Communists left survived for two years without help. That is why it is so important that the civilians trust the government. I think President Karzai has lost this trust with the Afghan people and the U.S Government has realized this. The U.S and Allies have forced Karzai to a run-off that he did not want and I don't think they want him to win. That is why I decided to bet against Karzai recently. I put a sizable position that Karzai will not win the run-off election for the Afghan Presidential Election of 2009.

With the recent announcement of a run-off election and analysis of the fraudulent results, I decided to take a 30% chance that President Karzai will not win and that Dr. Abdullah Abdullah will be the new President of Afghanistan.

Weekend Results

I lost all of my football bets. I don't think I'll be doing those next weekend. My movie results were a lot better and added to the account that mattered most to me. I'm probably a lot better off that Tradesports isn't around anymore.

Weekend Box Office Results

Daily Chuck Predictions

Where The Wild Things Are: $38 Million - Actual $32,695,407 - 14% Off
Law Abiding Citizen: $15 Million - Actual $21,039,502 - 40% Off
The Stepfather: $5 Million - $11,581,586 - 132% Off

Paranormal Activity: $18 Million - $19,617,650 - 9% Off

Movies Wagered On Average - 86% Off
Total Weekend Average - 48.75% Off

Well, I really screwed up on The Stepfather and wasn't even close. It really ruined my prediction averages. Thanks to the risk management of my bets though, I was still able to profit from this weekend. It's all about getting good odds. I had made a prediction of Where the Wild Things at $38 Million but I didn't get positions because I thought the price was overvalued.

Daily Chuck Positions

STEPFATHER.+$6.0M - Short - Expiry at 100 (Loss)

LAW.ABIDING.+$16.0M - Long - Expiry at 100 (Win)
LAW.ABIDING.+$18.0M - Long - Expiry at 100 (Win)

College Football - Week 8

Here are some bets on College Football I made. I'm wondering if it's wise or not to tease games and then single bet on the same games. I guess we'll find out.

Single #152836273
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(149) USC -10 Sat@3:30p
Competitor:(150) Notre Dame

Single #152836272
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(159) Virginia Tech -3 (1.87) Sat@6:00p
Competitor:(160) Georgia Tech

Single #152836271
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(120) Wisconsin -3 (2.10) Sat@12:00p
Competitor:(119) Iowa

Single #152836270
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(110) Texas -3½ (1.95) Sat@12:00p
Competitor:(109) Oklahoma

---------------------------------------------------------------

3 Team Teaser #152836338
Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(120) Wisconsin +3 Sat@12:00p
Competitor:(119) Iowa
Teased 6.0 points

Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(159) Virginia Tech +3 Sat@6:00p
Competitor:(160) Georgia Tech
Teased 6.0 points

Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread
(149) USC -4 Sat@3:30p
Competitor:(150) Notre Dame
Teased 6.0 points

Box Office Returns 10/16/09 - 10/18/09

This week we have three weekend openers and for the first time that I can remember, a market for movie after it has already had an opening weekend. Where the Wild Things Are seems poised to easily take 1st place. Fighting for 2nd will be Couples Retreat on its 2nd weekend, Law Abiding Citizen and Paranormal Activity which opened last week with only 100 theaters. It still opened to an outstanding $7.9 Million and made $49,379 on average per theater. That's a new record for movies that open with 100+ theaters. The Stepfather is easily going to lose out of the movies opening this weekend.

For more in depth analysis of this weekend's Box Office, one can go to Prediction Market Insights.

Daily Chuck Predictions

Where The Wild Things Are: $38 Million
Law Abiding Citizen: $15 Million
The Stepfather: $5 Million

Paranormal Activity: $18 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

STEPFATHER.+$6.0M - Short

LAW.ABIDING.+$16.0M - Long
LAW.ABIDING.+$18.0M - Long

The Stuff Election Dreams Are Made Of

In the past two weeks, (D) Gov. Corzine has made an amazing comeback in his re-election campaign and on Intrade.

On September 31, Corzine was given about a 30% chance of winning the Governor's Election in New Jersey according to Intrade. Now with less then three weeks to go until election night, Corzine has soared to an amazing 63% and has consistently traded at that level for the last day. If you had invested $100 on Corzine shares 15 days ago, you could sell it for over $200 today.

The funny thing is, Republican candidate Christie is still in the lead in many polls but has seen his lead diminish in the past months with no end in sight. If the trend continues, Corzine will probably win. Corzine has gone negative in the past weeks, attacking Christie for his weight and leaving Independent candidate Daggett alone to wreck havoc on Christie's candidacy. Corzine is also apparently not afraid of being associated with Obama as he will be making another campaign stop for him.

Right now, I give Corzine roughly a 55% chance of winning this election. If the election were held today, I think Christie would barely win, but he has not been able to stop the bleeding and by the time election time rolls around, Corzine might have a 1 or 2 point lead if current poll trends continue.

Guest Speaker Congressman Jason Altmire

On Monday, I went to my "Political Parties and Campaigning" class and had (D)Congressman Jason Altmire speak to the class and tell us about his campaign experience. Congressman Altmire happens to have graduated from Florida State University and was on the football team for a limited time. Enough time to earn him a '89 Sugar Bowl ring. Injuries cut short his career but he was at least able to play against Deion Sanders. He currently represents Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district.

Congressman Altmire quit his job and had one really important primary challenger, Georgia Berner. She was a successful business woman with no political experience but much political influence. When first meeting then candidate Altmire, she made him wait outside her office showing him all of her awards and accommodations.

He went on with the campaign because he felt that 2006 would be a year where Democrats would take back control of Congress, which they of course did. Candidate Altmire decided to go all out campaigning and made many more campaign appearances and stops then his much richer and overly confident opponent. Without having taken one poll himself, candidate Altmire won the primary for the Democrat party and would now face three term incumbent (R)Melissa Hart who was an election veteran and had won her past three races by +10 point margins.

Needless to say candidate Altmire was huge underdog but he gave it his best shot. Luckily, Melissa Hart underestimated him also and didn't give her election campaign as much time or thought as she should have. She still easily raised more money, but didn't work as hard.

Candidate Altmire had around $100,000 in cash in June and went to then Congressman Rahm Emanuel to try and get some money and attention from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee which he chairs. The amount was not enough for Rahm Emanuel to give him the light of day and Altmire was not given much chance by the national party to win. Candidate Altmire called back and asked for money but was once again dismissed by Rahm when he told how much he had raised.

Finally, a month before the election, Rahm Emanuel calls and asks how much cash he has on hand. Candidate Altmire had only $250,000 at the time and he lied about how much he had. Rahm Emanuel called him out with that dirty mouth of his and asked again "how much?" Altmire tells him and Rahm Emanuel "suggests" that if he were in his position, he would spend all his money in the next week. Altmire protests and tell Emanuel that if he did that, he would quickly be out of money. Rahm Emanuel repeats what he said and Altmire confusingly repeats what he said.

After the phone call, Altmire discusses the phone call with his advisors and they agree to spend most of the money for a week's worth of ads. Jason Altmire was able to run TV ads for the entire last month thanks to the large amount of donations he received in the last month. Only then did many realize he had a shot against a Republican incumbent and donate money. He ended up winning by +4 points.

He gave some piece of advice for those who may want to run a political campaign in the future.

• No campaign stop is too small or insignificant.
• Use polls to find out winning issues.
• Do not spend any of your own money! Unless of course, your filthy rich.
• Start campaigning early.
• Use technology to your advantage.

In both the primary and general election, Jason Altmire was the underdog and raised less money then his main opponent. He won by sheer will and hard work. Now he gets to tell the woman who made him wait outside her office what to do, literally, she works on one of his advisory comittees. Keep your friends close and enemies closer, I guess.

[Update] Box Office Returns 10/09/09 - 10/11/09

I'm actually very surprised by the success of Couple Retreat. $34.3 Million for the weekend was above many people's expectations and another movie has yet again stumped many box office gurus.

With this win on Couple's Retreat I have made back most of the losses from Surrogates and Jennifer's Body and I am once again profitable with the Box Office over the last 30 days. I've had a couple of rough weeks, but I have stayed in there, controlled myself with bankroll management and finally got a big score.

Results For...

Daily Chuck Predictions

Couples Retreat: $28 Million - Actual: $34,286,740 - 22.5% Off

Movies Wagered on Average: 22.5% Off
Total Average: 22.5% Off

Daily Chuck Positions

COUPLES.RETREAT.+$25.0M - Long - Expiry at 100
COUPLES.RETREAT.+$27.5M - Long - Expiry at 100
COUPLES.RETREAT.+$30.0M - Long - Expiry at 100

Couples Retreat Easily Cashes In

Looks like Couples Retreat had a very good Friday with $12.3 Million and I'm guessing the movie will have around $31-$33 Million for the weekend when all is said and done.

The movie had terrible reviews but had no competition. I think this is the driving factor with regards to the success of this movie. This movie also shows how useless reviews can be to try and estimate the opening weekend of some movies. No doubt they are a factor, but I believe it is a small one in determining the success of a movie.

From ERC Box Office,

TITLE	STUDIO		SITES		GROSS		AVG		TOTAL
1	COUPLES RETREAT	Universal	·	3000	·	$35,000,000	·	$11,667	·	$35,000,000
2	ZOMBIELAND	Sony	·	3038	·	$15,500,000	·	$5,102	·	$48,125,000
3	CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS	Sony	·	3077	·	$13,750,000	·	$4,469	·	$98,000,956
4	TOY STORY/TOY STORY 2 (3D)	Walt Disney	·	1752	·	$8,500,000	·	$4,852	·	$23,502,348
5	PARANORMAL ACTIVITY	Paramount	·	159	·	$5,500,000	·	$34,591	·	$6,713,241

Box Office Returns 10/09/09 - 10/11/09

I didn't really want to go long on Couples Retreat but it is not facing any competition. Zombieland is a good movie and will probably have a very small drop but it's on it's 2nd weekend. I think this factor will help Couples Retreat meet it's expectations.

Daily Chuck Predictions

Couples Retreat - $28 Million

Daily Chuck Positions

COUPLES.RETREAT.+$25.0M - Long
COUPLES.RETREAT.+$27.5M - Long
COUPLES.RETREAT.+$30.0M - Long

Politickr Intrade Market Wrap - Oct 7, 2009

Video created by Andrew Goldberg

Who will be Elected Governor of New Jersey and Virginia?

According to Intrade, we have a dead heat in New Jersey and a done deal in Virginia. After months of being behind in the polls, Democratic Governor Corzine has finally pulled into the lead according to a poll by Fairleigh Dickinson. I have never heard of that pollster and I don't really believe them. Never the less, Rasmussen and a DailyKos/Research2000 show the race is getting closer and closer. Both polls show that Christie has a +4 point lead. The decrease in the lead isn't because Corzine has been polling better, it's because Republican Christie has been polling worse. If he can't stop the steady loss in support that he has been having for the last couple of months, we could very well see Gov. Corzine win his bid for re-election. He is currently trading at 50% right now.

I have not made a wager in this election either way, it seems clear that Christie is on the downtrend but he has consistently polled ahead and the Fairleigh Dickinson poll may not be accurate. Corzine has barely polled above 40% at any time in this race and Christie has to just stop the bleeding. I have to give the edge to Christie because he has consistently polled in the lead and I think with the election just around, Christie will barely squeak by. Look for a race that is too close to call on election night.

Here is how (D) Gov. Corzine has been trading recently on Intrade.



Here is a history of polling for the race in New Jersey.



In Virginia, my prediction that McDonnell would win is looking like a sure thing. McDonnell has been trading as high as 88% recently. The latest poll done by SurveyUSA has McDonnell in the lead by 11%. With less then a month to go, Democrat Creigh Deeds looks like a huge underdog with less then a month to go. Apparently, McDonnell has done well to stem the damage from his embarrassing thesis going public. There was another incident where a McDonnell supporter made fun of Deed's speaking ability, but I doubt it will hurt McDonnell's chances at this point.

As I said before I have money on Republican McDonnell for the race in Virginia. I bought him when he was at 62.5%. He last traded at 88%. A Republican win in Virginia looks like a sure thing and Republicans will use the election as propaganda that the people are turning against Obama. Remember that Virginia was a state that Obama won in his Presidential election that Senator Kerry and Vice President Al Gore had not.

Here is a history of polling for the race in Virginia.



Here is the Closing Price History on Intrade for (R)McDonnell for the past three months.

SNL Points Out Failures of Obama Administration

When Saturday Night Live, the comedy sketch show in New York turns on Obama, things can get a little messy. The sketch is kind of funny and pretty strong in its message. That basically Barrack Obama hasn't really done anything...(with a 60 Senate seat majority mind you).

The trip to the International Olympic Committee that Obama took to try and win the games for Chicago has become a symbol for Obama latest string of failures. His failure to get the Public Option being his grandest to date. Democrats had been hoping for the day that they could bring back Health-Care reform and now they feel Obama blew it.

Rio de Janeiro wins Olympic Bid

Intrade got it right (at last minute mind you) and the 2016.OLYMPICS.STH.AMERICA was trading as the favorite right before the shock announcement that Chicago would lose its bid in the first round of voting. Madrid and Rio de Janeiro were the two finalists this year with Rio de Janeiro winning the bid for a South American Country for the first time.

This is another big win for Brazil which has been becoming a more influential and powerful country. Brazil will now host the 2014 World Cup as well as 2016 Summer Olympics. It also seems that President Obama does not have the amount of international clout that he and his team thought they had in swaying the members of the International Olympic Committee.

No Box Office Predictions this weekend.