Weekend Box Office Results (November 20-22, 2009)

Looks like Twilight: New Moon completely broke through pretty much everyone's expectations. It did amazingly well at the box office and broke the midnight opening record as well as the opening day record. My initial reaction when seeing the preliminary tracking numbers was that this was really, really, huge. I toned down my expectations because I have had a history of predicting way too big. This predicting stuff is just so hit and miss. The good news is my inaccuracy helped me with Twilight, but hurt me with Blindside. Someone was offering odds that were "too good." I don't feel that bad though, pretty much everyone was off except the mysterious trader who came in late Friday and was able to get some easy money. Cost me most of my profits. I'm going to follow a new rule for myself. No trades on Friday after 3:00PM.

Daily Chuck Results

Twilight New Moon: $104.7 Million - Actual: $142,839,137 - 36.4% Off
Blindside: $16.5 Million - Actual: $34,119,372 - 106.8% Off
Planet 51: $10.5 Million - Actual: $12,286,129 - 14.5% Off

Movies Wagered on Average - 71.6% Off
Total Movie Average - 52.57% Off

Daily Chuck Positions

TWILIGHT.SAGA.+$100.0M - Long - Avg: 60% - Win
TWILIGHT.SAGA.+$105.0M - Long - Avg: 49.8% - Win
TWILIGHT.SAGA.+$110.0M - Long - Avg: 33.3% - Win

BLIND.SIDE.+$18.0M - Short - Avg: 63.3% - Loss
BLIND.SIDE.+$20.0M - Short - Avg: 60% - Loss
BLIND.SIDE.+$22.0M - Short - Avg: 50% - Loss

Here is tracking for next week. I am going to start regularly posting tracking numbers from now on. I have been doing a little bit of statistical anlysis on past tracking numbers. Nothing to serious yet. But MTC is definitely better than RS. MTC can still make big mistakes though and had predicted Blindside at $17 Million. These tracking numbers are ultimately provided by notfabio as always.

MTC (5-Days)

Old Dogs: $33 Million
Ninja Assassin: $18 Million
The Fantastic Mr. Fox: 16 Million

RS (5-Days)

Old Dogs: $40 Million
The Fantastic Mr. Fox: $17 Million
Ninja Assassin: $15 Million