Intrade and New York's 23rd District's Special Election

Personally, I had sold all of my NY23.SPECIAL.OTHER(Hoffman) contracts because I thought that the race was too difficult to accurately assess. At first, I had shorted Hoffman because he was a third party candidate and there were news stories out that he didn't know much about the issues facing New York's 23rd District.

I figured as a third party candidate, he didn't have a chance. But when Sarah Palin endorsed him and he came out ahead in two "polls." I realized that his momentum, some of which was artificially manufactured, made him a viable candidate. I switched positions at a loss but before Scozzafava dropped out. When hearing about her endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens, I decided to get out while I was ahead and come out with a little profit. This was before two more polls came out and showed Hoffman in a huge lead. One by PPP(Public Policy Polling has Hoffman +17 and another by Sienna showing Hoffman +5.

Scozzafava's endorsement of Owens seems very spiteful and only justifies conservatives' beliefs that she was a RINO(Republican In Name Only). She isn't the type of republican that conservatives want. Conservatives are sick of their party not representing them in Washington. For too long, the republican establishment has not been as deficit reducing as their campaign rhetoric would have everyone believe. The last thing they want is another republican who is practically a liberal.

I wish I hadn't gotten out of my position and had kept Hoffman, but I am definitely not willing to pay more than $7 to win less than $3 on a candidate in a special election. I currently give Hoffman a valuation from 60%-65%.