New Jersey Gubernatorial Election, 2009

After waiting and watching the race in New Jersey, I finally decided to take a position late in the race against democrat Corzine when he looked overvalued compared to his position in the polls. The polls keep going back and forth between Corzine and Christie and the latest batch of polls seem to be in Christie's favor. The latest poll by SurveyUSA has Christie +3, Quinnipiac has Christie +2, but Monmouth/Gannett has Corzine +2.

With Christie appearing to have reversed the trend in favor of Corzine, I think New Jersey is a complete coin flip. Most of the polls are within the margin of error and show that this race is simply too unpredictable right now. New Jersey is not known for its clean politics and with so much on the line, certain voting "discrepancies" might come about that could change the outcome of the election. Voter turnout and enthusiasm will also be a significant factor.

I currently have 35 contracts shorting NJ.GOV2009.DEM(Corzine) at 61.7%. If it's going to be a coin flip, I'm going to get the undervalued side of the coin. Personally, I think it will come down to Daggett voters changing their minds and strategically voting for Christie to put him over the top. Whatever happens shouldn't be a surprise though. Polls and pundits are all over the place on this one.