It looks like the political elections were very kind to me. My predictions for New Jersey and Virginia came through, but the one for New York 23rd did not. The good thing about that is when Dede Scozzafava announced she had endorsed Owens, I retreated out of my Hoffman position and didn't get back in because I thought Hoffman had become much over-valued. Not getting back in turned out to save me a lot of trouble and when the first results were coming in and showed Owens in the lead. I quickly went long on Owens at better than 2 to 1 and cleaned up.
Special elections are "special" for a reason and everyone should realize how hard it is to forecast them. Turnout is low, candidates are not that well known, polling is difficult and swings can occur quickly. With so many things happening so quickly, traders should have realized that polls still including Scozzafava's name shouldn't have accounted for much.
I'm surprised New Jersey wasn't closer but i'm not going to complain. Seems that Corzine's comeback was merely due to Daggett doing better and when his support fell through, so did Corzine chances of winning.
Overall, I'm happy that I did my research and that nothing surprised me on election day. I was prepared for anything and was able to take advantage when the opportunities show up.
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