Virginia Gubernatorial Election 2009

This race was over more then a month ago. Deeds went way to negative and tried to make the college thesis written by McDonnell into a bigger negative story then it actually was. They used it to attack him to often and never really offered the voters an alternative choice. Such a negative campaign might have worked against an incumbent with low approval ratings but that is not a good strategy against another when the other candidate is trying to win the seat for the first time.

McDonnell has stayed in the lead from the beginning and avoided making any large mistakes. Whatever he did to manage the thesis crisis worked and republicans will now be able to get back a state which has been turning more and more blue. The republicans will use it as propaganda that the American people are turning against Obama and the democrats. It will be true to some extent. Obama and the democrats are losing some public support but it will not be as much as republicans would have you believe.

I had to wait a while for my prediction for Virginia to come true, but that was the price for getting in on the action when it was still good. I have 34 contracts of VA.GOV2009.REP(McDonnell) at a price of 62.1 going long. I fully expect this to expire at 100%.