Intrade Senate & House Forecast (10/25/2010)

The polls are going all over the place and it’s getting hard to believe any poll at face value. Unless polling is seriously underestimating the “enthusiasm gap,” I don’t think we’ll see a Republican Senate. It’s still in play but the clock is starting to run out. The question now is whether Republicans make it to 49. This also depends on a bunch of toss ups going favorably their way. Nevada and Illinois are starting to look Republican lean but Democrats are threatening in Colorado and Pennsylvania.

The House

The Senate

Colorado and Pennsylvania are looking to be the nail biters that everyone thought Illinois and Nevada would play. Sharon Angle seems to be in the lead right now with early voting going on so some of these polls gives us information on polls cast today. I'll think she'll win this one but it's still going to be close and she might not be worth at 62.9%. Illinois still has many undecideds but has been steadily trending Republican this cycle. California has also been steadily polling for Boxer even though Fiorina is still within striking distance.

Pennsylvania and Colorado have been very sporadic in the polls and Republicans could be more vulnerable there than previously thought. Bennet seems to be slowly catching up to Buck and may overtake him by election night. Polling in Pennsylvania has been mostly in favor of Toomey and he is definitely still the favorite now. I think this race is closer then it appears and I still think Toomey is overvalued.