Is Pennsylvania Now a Toss Up?

Yesterday, PPP surprised the hell out of me and reported that Democrat Joe Sestak now held a 1 point lead over Republican Pat Toomey. The result came from what I consider a reputable poster and  two Democratic internal polls also showed a lead for Sestak.  Although these internals are probably biased towards Sestak, the fact that these polls would show him in the lead at all, shows that the race has significantly tightened. 

Now, a new poll by a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows Sestak at 44% and Toomey at 41%.  Looking over past polls, I can only find two instances since September where Toomey polled 50% or higher.  If Toomey had locked this race up like it appeared, I would have expected many more results with him above 50%.  For example, (R) Ron Johnson has polled above 50% nine times in the Wisconsin Senate race since September. 

I decided to pull the trigger and short Toomey on Intrade at 75%.  In my opinion, he’s no longer a 3 to 1 favorite and I don’t know if I can honestly claim he’s still the favorite.  Polling in Pennsylvania will no doubt come out soon to try and confirm whether or not there is a trend in favor of Sestak.  I’m betting there is and that by election night, Joe Sestak will have another comeback to celebrate.