Intrade Senate & House Forecast - 10/19/2010

With two weeks to go the battle for the Senate has intensified.  More races seem to be in play and polling is starting to get sporadic. Two weeks ago, it seemed like we might only have three races to worry about, Washington, Nevada, and Illinois.   Now I am tracking 9 races with both candidates trading above 20% and under 80%. 

The House of Representatives

Predictions for the House have continued to get worse and worse for Democrats.  Each week that has gone by has seen Republican gains increasing and now bettors on Intrade are saying it is 63.9% likely that Republicans gain 55+ seats in the House of Representatives.  This would be a gain greater than 1994!

 
The Senate

Polls for the Senate are starting to get sporadic and the only trend that I can find is that most races are becoming more unpredictable or more competitive.  PPP and Rasmussen seem to be differing from each other more often than not and internal polls from both sides seems to be aimed at changing the perception of the races they poll and not realistically portraying the electorate as they should. 

By counting every individual seat, Intrade is predicting that Republicans will have a total of 49 seats.  Just enough for the Senate Neither contract to expire at 100%.  Despite the number of changes that have happened over the past week, Republicans seemed to be headed for just enough seats to not gain a majority.  This has been a trend throughout this electoral season and I expect it will probably continue until election day. Republicans seem to be competitive in many more races than Democrats and across the board are winning votes on the margins, where it matters most.

Senate Forecast	Democrats	Republicans	Independents
Grouped	52.07	48.06	2.08*
Individual	49	49	2

 

*Intrade counts Sen. Lisa Murkowski as a Republican for the Senate Control contracts.