As it stands right now. Of the four closest Senate races; Illinois, Nevada, Washington, and West Virginia, Republicans would need to win all four in order to control 51 seats. For those betting on Intrade, the situation gets more complicated with Murkowski putting up a fight in Alaska.
The Republican candidate in Illinois, Mark Kirk was at one point in this electoral season, a 70% favorite on Intrade to win the seat. Right now, both the Democrat and Republican candidate last traded below 50%! Usually, candidates are overvalued in electoral markets, but the fact that the market is undervaluing both Kirk and Giannoulias shows how much of a toss up Illinois truly is. I have taken no position in this race and I’ll probably stay away until election night.
In Nevada, Sharon Angle has continued to keep up with Harry Reid in the polls and it may finally be starting to go her way. She raised an astronomical $14 Million in the 3rd quarter and is listed 1st on the Nevada ballot thanks to the fact that candidates are listed in alphabetical order. For Sen. Harry Reid, staying on as Senate Majority Leader rests mostly with his ability to keep his own seat. There aren’t very many scenarios where he wins Nevada and Republicans take over the Senate. Sharon Angle last traded at 48.1% but there is currently a lot of 250 contracts bidding at 50.1%.
In Washington, Republican candidate Dino Rossi was almost considered out of it as the Democrat candidate Patty Murray looked like she was starting to run away with it. A month ago, she was trading around the mid-60’s on Intrade and looked as good as a 2 to 1 favorite. Rossi has come back to make it competitive but it still might not be enough. The latest Rasmussen poll continues to show Rossi but as Nate Silver recently pointed out, Rasmussen also has a history of overestimating the Republican’s chances in the state. I’ll agree with traders on Intrade that Washington is currently leaning toward the Democrat. Patty Murray last traded at 58% to win the Washington Senate seat.
Finally, we get to West Virginia where a really popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin decided to run for Senate and is facing a tough electoral battle against Republican candidate John Raese. West Virginia was mostly ignored during this electoral season until Raese won the primary and surprised everyone by catching up to Manchin and then him passing in the polls. A recent poll by PPP now has Manchin in the lead by 3% but he still remains behind by 2.4% in pollster.com’s average of the polls. I favor Raese in West Virginia and I personally have some contracts shorting (D) Joe Manchin.
What all these four races show is that the Democrats are not losing without a fight. No doubt Republicans can win any one of these four races, but they have to win four races for a majority and that might simply be out of their reach. If I had to list which states are most likely to go Republican, I would list them in this order, #1 West Virginia, #2 Nevada, #3 Illinois, and #4 Washington.
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