Intrade Mid-Term Forecast (10/12/2010)

Republican’s chances to win the House and Senate continue to improve with every passing week. With three weeks left until election day, Democrats are not getting enthused to go to the polls and vote for their candidates with the same ferocity as Republicans. This enthusiasm gap continues to push race after race into the Republican camp.

The House of Representatives

Republicans are continued favorites to win the House, trading close to 80% to win control.

The biggest change in the chart below is that the probability of Republicans gaining 50+ seats in the House has increased 23.1% in less than 3 weeks! The contract is now trading at 64.1% and that’s practically 2 to 1 odds! The bulls are betting heavy on Republicans.

The Senate

Republicans continue to gain Senate seat after seat and Nevada is now the latest state favored by Intrade to fall to Republicans. The recent movement in favor of Sharon Angle may be coming from recent polls that show her in front and news that Sharon Angle is listed 1st on the Nevada ballot and Harry Reid is listed 7th. The Tea Party candidate Ashjian is listed 2nd however and might siphon off some votes from Angle. Currently, if you count each individual race Republicans are now favored to win 50 Senate seats.

Intrade Senate Forecast	Democrats	Republicans	Independents
Grouped	49.00	48.85	2.41
Individual	48	50	2