Lib Dems need 37%-38% for Nick Clegg to Gain Plurality

Yesterday, I explored some election scenarios in the U.K and found out that there is significant chance that the Liberal Democrats can beat Labour in seats if they lose enough support. If the Lib Dems have more seats than Labour, Nick Clegg could possibly become Prime Minister through a Lib-Lab coalition. Today, I analyze that scenario more in depth.

An interesting thing to note about most election scenarios is that there is a finite number of them. I really doubt any party can get above 45%, I also think the floor for Labour support has to be around 20%-25% and it can almost never go below that number. Labour has been around so long that they have to have a hardcore base much like Bush did when his approval rating plummeted but never went below 30%-33%.

Once again, all the scenarios have votes for others constant at 10%. Hypothetical polling in green consists of Lib Dems beating Labour in seats and the polling in in yellow consists of the Lib Dems gaining a plurality of seats.



What's interesting is that we could see the Lib Dems have more seats than Labour with 36% of the vote and the Tories at 33%. As long as the Lib Dems have the highest percentage of the national vote, they could claim a mandate to lead the next government.

As the Lib Dems rise above 36%, they slowly squeeze out the possibility of a Conservative plurality in seats. This is because there simply isn't any more room for the Conservatives to grow. 36%-38% is the electabililty threshold that Nick Clegg needs to reach to truly convince the British public that the Lib Dems can win the election. Right now, he isn't too far away from that goal polling around 30%-33%. But as it stands right now, all he is doing is preventing the Tories from reaching the majority they so desperately want. With the added possibility that the U.K might still have Labour stay in power.

The key to a Lib Dem victory right now is too crush Labour immediately. Get them out of the equation. Make sure that a vote for the Lib Dems is not a vote for Labour. Because if that is the case, the Conservatives could retain the mantle of Change.