The U.K Election Debates

Today, we will have the first televised debate in the history of the U.K parliamentary election. Prime Minister Gordon Brown will be facing against Conservative candidate David Cameron and the Liberal Democrat candidate Nick Clegg.

There will be two more debates before the election and I highly doubt any of them becomes a significant game changer. Brown and Cameron are pretty good debaters thanks to Prime Minister's questions. As long as one of them doesn't screw up royally, the election will probably continue to proceed with a Tory lead in the polls. The Tories have been polling around 6%-9% better than Labour but simply beating them will not guarantee a majority in parliament. The Tories will have to do better than expected in the marginal seats.

Despite some of the news that Labour has been polling better recently. It was probably just a temporary bounce thanks to the launch of their manifesto, polling has returned to previous levels thanks to the bounce from the launching of the Conservative manifesto.

Considering how long the Tories have been in the lead in the polls and the current economic condition of Britain, I'm betting the Conservatives will hold on to their lead and eventually win a majority. There is still plenty of time left for the political environment to completely change. It might even happen tonight. But by the way the election seems to be proceeding, David Cameron will be the new Prime Minister of the U.K.

Intrade currently gives the chances for a Tory majority at 58%. Volume is still a little low but as the election gets closer, I think we could see some significant volume.