Well, my analysis of the the U.K Election and the Conservatives winning rested on a single premise, that the 1st U.K debate would not fundamentally change the election. I was wrong, it has. Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrat party won the first debate and has shaken up the entire election. The Labour party is now arguably in 3rd place with the Liberal Democrats in 2nd and the Conservatives still in 1st. All basically within the margin of error.
It seems that David Cameron and the Conservatives were right in picking the Change message but were wrong in assuming that the electorate would see them as the party that represents that message.
| Pollster | Date | Conservatives | Liberal Democrats | Labour |
| YouGov | 4/14/2010 | 41% | 18% | 32% |
| YouGov | 4/15/2010 | 37% | 22% | 31% |
| ICM | 4/15/2010 | 34% | 27% | 29% |
| ComRes | 4/16/2010 | 35% | 24% | 28% |
| YouGov | 4/16/2010 | 33% | 30% | 28% |
| ComRes | 4/17/2010 | 31% | 29% | 27% |
| BPIX | 4/17/2010 | 31% | 32% | 28% |
The Liberal Democrats seem to be taking more voters from the Conservatives than Labour, the Liberal Democrats are taking votes from both parties as they continue to attack each other. Voters seem to be disinterested in both parties and do not like David Cameron. The only thing going for David Cameron is that he is not Gordon Brown.
The 1st debate helped establish Nick Clegg as an equal candidate against David Cameron and Gordon Brown. An alternative to the status quo of just the Labour Party against the Conservative Party. With his recent rise in the polls, a vote for the Liberal Democrats might not feel wasted, which is an important hurdle for any candidate. Now voters know that there indeed might be an alternative that has a chance of winning. Here is an interesting analysis of the debate by pollster Frank Luntz.
Nick Clegg also has the advantage of being fresh on the political scene and hasn’t been stereotyped as much as the other candidates. Labour has known for a long time that David Cameron was their main opposition and has done all the dirty work that the Liberal Democrats need to hurt the alternative candidate and appear squeaky clean at the same time.
Right now, if the polling remains the same until the election, I have no idea what will happen. Apparently, somehow Labour could win the most seats if it comes in a close 3rd in votes and Liberal Democrats might still remain in a distant 3rd in number of seats. It’s everything or bust for the Liberal Democrats. According to a swing calculator I found, they would need around 41% of the vote to win a majority in Parliament. I assumed the Conservatives would come in 2nd with 27%, Labour in 3rd with 22% and votes for other at 10%.
I think there is a significant chance the Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats can keep this up and break into the 40%+ range that the Conservatives were reaching less then a week ago in the polls. There are two more debates to go and Nick Clegg was the clear winner of the 1st one. Can he keepup the “Big Mo?” Soon we shall see.
On Intrade, I’ve dumped all my stock on the Conservatives and I’m going long on the Liberal Democrats. Both to win the election and win a majority. I’ve also gone a little long on Labour winning the election by winning the most seats and being invited by the Queen to form a minority government. The outcome I think is most likely if there is a hung parliament. But honestly I’m still trying to figure out how this entire election will play out. Somehow the Brits have managed to make an electoral system more complicated then the electoral college.
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