Multiple UK Election Scenarios

The 2nd debate on foreign policy is today and the Lib Dems are now feeling the heat from Conservatives. The Daily Telegraph, has published this story on Nick Clegg which shows that he received money from political donors into one of his personal accounts. This blog post from the Independent seems to think that it is not that big of a deal. Here are some graphs using a swing calculator to illustrate what I think are some highly likely scenarios for the future. 

Scenario A) Conservative Resurgence
David Cameron wins the foreign policy debate and is able to bounce back and keep the Lib Dems from rising above 30%. The Lib Dems continue lose votes to the Conservatives but continue to gain from a Labour party that shrinks to it's hardcore base.

What's unfortunate in this situation for the Lib Dems is that they never have more than 110 seats. The good news for the Conservatives is that they can get a plurality of seats with 34% and a majority with around 37%-38% of the vote. This might be the best path for a Conservative victory at this point. The Lib Dem surge has stabilized by around 30%. Labour is in 3rd but they are still relevant. Convince the electorate that they aren't even a factor anymore and are nothing but a lame duck government.

The Tories still have two big advantages over the Lib Dems, money and organization. Both can help propel David Cameron back to the lead after a surge in the polls.

Scenario B) Lib Dems come in 1st but Tories come in close 2nd
In this scenario the Lib Dems continue to rise in the polls but the Tories are able to separate themselves from Labour. The Tories continue to be competitive with the Lib Dems but ultimately come 2nd.

This scenario, which does give the Conservatives a plurality but never a majority can go two ways, if the Lib Dems are still 2nd in seats then I think David Cameron will form either a minority government or with a coalition government with the Lib Dems. If the Lib Dems win more seats than Labour, then I think a Lib-Lab coalition with Nick Clegg as Prime Minister could be in order. Gordon Brown seems open to the idea of a Lib-Lab alliance and the Lib Dems are most closely aligned ideologically with Labour than the Conservatives. This might also be favored by the public because it puts the party that got first in votes at the head of government.

Conclusion
Under these two scenarios the chances of hung parliament are great. Both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives have to beat the other two handedly in order to win an outright majority. The Conservatives less so than the Lib Dems.

If Nick Clegg wants to become Prime Minister even as the head of a coalition, he will have to beat both parties. David Cameron can probably do it by coming in a close 2nd with Labour still on life support. Ultimately the path to victory is a lot easier for the Conservatives than the Lib Dems but this all depends on Labour doing very poorly.