The Oscars have finally come around and unfortunately there seem to be few good betting opportunities due to how favored some of the contestants are. I have bet in only two events, Best Picture and Best Actress.
For Best Actress, Sandra Bullock seems to be the favorite and should be considering she has won many awards, and more importantly the Screen Actors Guild award. The SAG being the biggest and most important constituency of voters in the Academy. I have 15 Contracts going Long on Sandra Bullock at 60%.
For Best Picture, the new preferential ballot presents challenges to successfully predicting the winner but I am convinced that Avatar has little to no chance. The only big award that Avatar has won for Best Picture was the Golden Globe and that is voted on by a bunch of foreign journalists. The Academy is mix of players inside the Hollywood Industry, a giant mix of all the Guilds.
In the course of my research for Best Picture, I was able to find an online poll using the preferential ballot taking votes from a number of online forums. There were 151 ballots from a mix of forums, with Avatar not even coming in 3rd. Considering this was an online ballot from users on the Internet, I was surprised to see Avatar do so poorly. If Avatar can’t win an online poll, how can it expect to win the Oscar for Best Picture?
Inglourious Basterds was actually the winner of the poll and beat the Hurt Locker. Could this not also happen at the Academy? I know the poll isn’t scientific but I think it illustrates how Inglourious Basterds might be extremely undervalued right now. One Oscar pundit certainly believes so and considering Inglourious Basterds won the SAG award for Best Ensemble, I think it has a good chance of winning the Oscar for Best Picture.
I have 100 Contracts going Long on Inglourious Basterds at 6%. I have decided to hedge this bet by getting 20 contracts going long for the Hurt Locker at 54.6%.
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