Recently, the Labour party has been trying to make a comeback and the Conservatives have lost 2 points in the most recent YouGov poll which apparently is the most reliable poster in the U.K. There seems to be a significant chance that the Tories win the election but not an outright majority. According to Intrade, the probability of such an event traded last at 44%.
Hey Chuck, loyal reader here. Just wanted to give you a heads up about a gchat request I just sent ya. Quick Intrade question. Thanks for the blog!
ReplyDeleteI'm going to post this here since I don't tweet.
ReplyDeleteThey know the return rate for the census forms they sent to households because...
(wait for it)
(wait for it)
(my rephrasing of your question should give you some clue here...)
(wait for it)
they know how many census forms they sent out.
Ah, that makes sense. Mystery solved.
ReplyDeleteYouGov's good reputation comes from nailing the last London Mayoral Election.
ReplyDeleteThe "gold standard" however, for national polling, is ICM. They nailed the last GE.
I've got almost 50k on the Tories winning an Overall Majority. My biggest position since the victory of Obama. I have only hundred contracts on the Tory Overall, the bulk of my position is on Betfair and other Bookies, such as WillHill, which sometimes gave better odds than the exchange.
The Tories need a lead of about 7% only to get a majority of seats, in virtue of a higher unwind in the marginals...
-- Katechon
YouGov just gave a 10 point lead to the Tories...
ReplyDeleteICM gave the blue team a 4 point lead only -- the the fieldwork was done during Easter, so, not much informative value in it.
-- Katechon