Box Office Analysis – Train Your Dragon & Hot Tub Time Machine

Well, it seems that How to Train Your Dragon came even below the $47.5 Million I needed to hedge some of my losses. Really disappointing. I was really surprised because it had a high theater count, 3D Ticket Sales, and good reviews. I think this goes to show that good reviews or buzz for some movies does not equate into higher than expected box office.

Here is how I did with my predictions last week. I’ve made some changes to how I measure how well I performed. Before I was posting my results like this (Difference between my Prediction and Actual Box Office Gross / My Prediction). I should have been posting like this. (Difference between my Prediction and Actual Box Office Gross / Actual Box Office Gross). I will be editing my previous posts to reflect this change as well. Reflecting this change, for 2010, my predictions are currently on average 23.22% from the actual.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
How To Train Your Dragon	$57.96 Million	$43,732,319	32.53%
Hot Tub Time Machine	$17.35 Million	$14,020,502	23.75%

Here is Box Office Tracking for Clash of the Titans, Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too?, and The Last Song. Will we see a box office success with movies converted to 3D? Clash of the Titans will tell.

Movie	MTC	RS
Clash of the Titans	$76 Million	$82.5 Million (Low 80’s)
Why Did I Get Married Too?	$22 Million	$22.5 Million (Low 20’s)
The Last Song (5-Day)	$23 Million	$15 Million (Mid Teens)