Opening Weekend Box Office Analysis (2/6/10)-(2/8/10)

This time the blizzard didn’t destroy me and my bet going long on Dear John. I should consider myself lucky for missing something so obvious, again. I don’t think this blizzard was as big as the last one and I had always thought that the effect of the last blizzard was around minus 10% to 15%. Dear John may have actually been bigger had the blizzard not hit. Other then the blizzard all signs pointed to a big weekend for Dear John and I couldn’t the Super Bowl making that big of a dent.

Movie	Prediction	Actual	Absolute (%) Difference
Dear John	$25,940,000	$30,468,614	17.46%
From Paris with Love	$11,610,000	$8,158,860	29.73%
--	--	Opening Weekend Average	23.59%

This weekend we have a 4-Day weekend with Valentine’s Day on Sunday and President’s Day on Monday. Tracking has the movie Valentine’s Day opening in first place for this weekend and even though it looks similar to last year’s He’s Just Not That into You, it appears to be tracking higher. The Wolfman with Benicio Del Toro could have a decent weekend.

Movie	MTC	RS
Valentine’s Day	$50 Million	$42.5 Million (Low 40’s)
The Wolfman	$33 Million	$32.5 Million (Low 30’s)
Percy and the Olympians	$26 Million	$27.5 Million (High 20’s)