Sarah Palin’s recent hand gaffe has me convinced that she will not win the Republican nomination in 2012. She does not seem to have the political savvy, to be able to build up a successful Presidential campaign. Building a successful campaign is no easy feat and takes an entire organization. As Nate Silver points out, she is not surrounding herself with the right people that can give her the advice that she needs. She has little experience and resigned her Governorship in Alaska before it was over. She may be popular now but how will she look two years from now? Sarah Palin is currently trading at 23% as the favorite on Intrade. I refuse to short this right now because this contract is so far away from expiry and it is basically locking up money for 3 years. There will be better opportunities to bet on between now and the Republican nomination.
Mitt Romney is the favorite in my view for a couple of reasons. He has run before and got 2nd in both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. That takes an impressive organization and even though he didn’t win, he gave himself a very good chance. He is an effective organizer and can reach into his own personal fortune if he needs to. With McCain out of the way, Romney has a clear path to victory starting with New Hampshire. If he can win Iowa too, it’s over. Mitt Romney is currently trading at 21% on Intrade.
One of the downsides to Romney is that he is currently not in politics. I feel that in order to appear Presidential one must be constantly involved in public policy making. Whether it be Governor or Senate, you must be constantly serving or fresh from having served the public in some way. Personally, I feel we have no idea what the Republican nomination race is going to look like. There is a huge vacuum waiting to be filled and some one is going to fill it.
Two candidates currently on my horizon are Gen. David Petreus and Sen. Jim DeMint. It’s not clear to me that either of these people want to run for President, but I think both would have a really good chance if they entered the race. DeMint has constantly been a vocal supporter of mainstream conservative principles. He can speak very well and is the Senator for South Carolina. One of the early states in the race for the Republican nomination. Gen. Petreus is trading at 2.3% and Sen. DeMint can not currently be traded.
In the end, the 2012 Presidential election is way too far away to give any forecasts with reasonable certainty. Even a prediction by George Will, “In 2013, when President Mitch Daniels, former Indiana governor, is counting his blessings,” can not be reasonably taken seriously.
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