Valentine’s Day had a great weekend and helped make sure that Avatar didn’t regain it’s #1 status. I doubt it ever gets #1 again. Shutter Island should easily defeat it this next weekend. For the 4-Day weekend, my model underestimated all three movies and was only close for the Wolfman. I made a smaller profit this weekend than last weekend but I am happy that I had to risk even less in order to do so.
The really cool thing was we once again had early numbers provided by a user on HSX. Too bad he won’t be posting again as he got in trouble. The numbers that he reported seemed to be from theaters that have higher than average Per Theater Averages. Had he provided more numbers, projecting Friday’s Box Office gross could have been determined roughly at around 8PM EST. This should be a warning to all future traders that Insider Trading on this market is possible even earlier in the day. Even so, I don’t think I have seen any such instance.
| Movie | Prediction | Actual | Absolute (%) Difference |
| Valentine's Day | $48.45 Million | $63,135,312 | 30.31% |
| The Wolfman | $33.58 Million | $35,555,065 | 5.88% |
| Percy and the Olympians | $28.20 Million | $38,661,634 | 36.71% |
| -- | -- | Opening Weekend Average | 24.30% |
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