[Update] Box Office Returns - Weekend 6/19/09 - 6/21/09

You will find a couple of new data feeds in the side bar, a weekend chart, a daily chart, and release dates of the more anticipated movies this year.

For the Box Office Mojo - Weekend - Top 5 chart, which appears to update along with their website. Updates go like this. On Saturday around Noon EST, BOM has their Early Weekend Estimates. These numbers are pretty good and usually give you a good idea where exactly the movie is headed. You'll know for most of your contracts whether or not you have won or lost at this point. On Sunday around 1PM- 3PM EST we get Studio Weekend Estimates, and these are even more accurate and fine tuned. Because these changes can sometimes occur close to where some contracts have there strike points, some more contracts can be traded. Sometimes numbers can change more then expected and you might not know whether you have won or loss until Monday in the Afternoon, when we usually get the Weekend Actuals.

As of this writing Box Office Actuals are not in but I am hoping that it will automatically update in the Box Office Mojo Top 5 Chart in the sidebar. Doubtful that Intrade will expire Box Office Contracts today.

[Update: 5:12PM EST]

The Actuals are out and you can see them for yourself on the right. "Year One" opened great and then dropped like a rock, not even passing 20 Million which looked safe for a while. "The Proposal" is Sandra Bullock's biggest weekend, so I don't feel bad having underestimated it. I had a measly two contracts going long on "The Proposal" and I should have been a little more aggressive going long but the reviews were not as good as I thought they were and didn't feel that it had the potential to break $30 Million.

I lost my shorts on YEAR.ONE.+$17.5M but I had sold some contracts on YEAR.ONE.+$20.0M right before the weekend had started. On Saturday morning, it looked like I had lost those too but the Sunday Studio Estimates showed a big drop on Saturday and the estimate fell to $20.2 Million. I grabbed the 10 Contracts at 20 Million going long for 82 and hoped Sunday would have a bigger drop then the 20% they were anticipating. Sure enough it did and now my weekend got a lot better.

Apparently, word of mouth can really spread quickly among the young demographics thanks to technology and I think it killed the Opening Weekend for" Year One." Father's Day certainly didn't help. Not going over $20 Million was certainly a surprise for "Year One" considering it opened on Friday for $8.4 Million, the same as "The Hangover" which made $27 Million. It was never expected to have the same Saturday and Sunday but a $7 Million difference over 2 days is huge when two movies open for the same amount.

This weekend we have "Transformers 2" and I currently have contracts going long on TRANSFORMERS.+$100.0M for 50 and TRANSFORMERS.+$110.0M for 33. Transformers 2 is definitely going to be big, the only question is by how much? Will it break $100 Million for the weekend? I think so and maybe $110 Million for the Weekend, but I think that is more of a stretch. It opens on Tuesday Night at Midnight and we should know how big the weekend should be around by Thursday.