A Fork In The Road

We are now at the point of no return for Mousavi and his Green Revolution. Ayatollah Khamanei has declared an end to the street protests and says that the people have gotten what they want through the ballot box. Meanwhile, Mousavi appears to have been silenced and his spokesman at the Guardian has asked to have supporters go to the streets even though Mousavi will not be there to lead them.

Here is the transcript from the Ayotollah's speech today. I found some interesting quotes.

[02:13] (A. K.) I have known Rafsanjani for a long time
[02:13] (A. K.) he is one of the most prominent members of this revolution
[02:13] (A. K.) he was one of the major fighters before the revolution
[02:13] (A. K.) after the victory,
[02:13] (A. K.) he was one the most influential members of the Islamic state
[02:13] (A. K.) still is

[02:24] (A. K.) Today,
[02:24] (A. K.) If the laws are broken today,
[02:24] (A. K.) No election will be immune in the future
[02:25] (A. K.) in every election,
[02:25] (A. K.) there are losers and winners
[02:25] (A. K.) no other election will ever be trusted if you take other avenues.
[02:25] (A. K.) thus, all legal procedures should be observed
[02:25] (A. K.) If there are any doubts, the issue should be followed by legal procedures
[02:25] (A. K.) we have laws

[02:35] (A. K.) I want both sides to put an end to this
[02:36] (A. K.) then the responsibility of the consequences should be shouldered by those who aren’t putting an end to it.
[02:36] (A. K.) by thinking that by turning out onto the streets that you can pressure the officials your demands is wrong.
[02:37] (A. K.) first of all.
[02:37] (A. K.) it will not be acceptable to submit to illegal demands
[02:37] (A. K.) this would be the start of dictatorship.
[02:37] (A. K.) This is a miscalculation,
[02:38] (A. K.) If there are any consequences, they would directly affect the leaders behind the scene
[02:38] (A. K.) the people would know them in due time as well.
[02:38] (A. K.) I call on all these dear friends, brothers and sister to observe the law
[02:38] (A. K.) to follow the legal code
[02:38] (A. K.) the law welcomes you
[02:38] (A. K.) legal channels are there for you
[02:39] (A. K.) i hope that almighty god will help us all to follow the legal channels.
[02:39] (A. K.) don’t allow the enemies to destroy and ruin the celebration of our elections.
[02:39] (A. K.) If there are people who choose other paths, I will come and talk to people even more exclusively.

The Ayatollah is clearly stating that the protests will not affect the election result. He is putting his foot down on this and he is explicitly stating that the people in the street want to subvert the Iranian Constitution. This he will not allow.

But Mousavi and his backers are not standing down. Their spokesman has stated that the protest tomorrow is on. His supporters are spreading the word. From one Twitter account in Iran that appears to be the official Mousavi English Twitter account.

@mousavi1388 Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi Sat 4pm Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. Tehran for a crucial green protest #IranElection RT

The text system was also back up and my guess is that the Ayatollah is trying to reach out to the protesters. He is trying to appear as democratic as possible while stealing the election for Ahmedinejad. Pretending to follow the laws and constitution of Iran while he lets Ahmedinejad manipulate the system anyway he can to retain power. But the spokesman for the Mousavi camp has made it clear that these protests will continue.

Some suggest the protests will fade because nobody is leading them. All those close to Mousavi have been arrested, and his contact with the outside world has been restricted. People rely on word of mouth, because their mobile phones and the internet have been closed down. That they continue to gather shows they want something more than an election. They want freedom, and if they are not granted it we will be faced with another revolution.

Mousavi is going to continue his protests Ghandi style and will not accept the current election outcome. This is seen by the opposition as a coup d'eta and therefore unconstitutional. Both sides claim to be on the side of democracy.

Tomorrow, we will see a continuation of protests. It is up to the Ayatollah what will happen next. Right now, I have no idea what is going to happen and I would not be suprised to see a much more harsher and extensive crackdown on the protests. The military could potentially be involved. But who knows, maybe the Ayatollah is hoping that his recent speech will quell the protests and does not realize the severity of the situation, that the current election has been declared void by the people.

I took a small position going short now because I don't think Ahmedinejad has an 85% chance of being sworn in but I still think he has the advantage. The Ayatollah does not want to back down and he may see this as a threat to the ideals of the Iranian Revolution that he was such an influential part of. He doesn't want to use violence but he may feel he has been backed into a corner from which violence on the part of the State is the only answer. Even then, we could see the opposition come out on top and Ahmedinejad may not be sworn in. So it is not all up to the Ayatollah for Ahmedinejad to be sworn in. But I don't think the opposition will be able to survive a violent crack down Tienanmen style.