Here is Ahmadinejed's Price History at Intrade.
Ahmedinejad was certainly the favorite trading around 60% steadily and as high as 80% for a little while and the recent shift in prices comes as a big suprise. According to Intrade the new President is going to be Mir Hussein Moussavi who traded last at 55%. Ahmedinejad last traded at 40.1%.
Terry McAuliffe's campaign for governor of Virginia isn't doing any better and it looks like he won't get past the Virgina Primary. I never thought he really had a chance considering his eccentric personality and his recent failures running the Hillary Clinton Campaign. McAuliffe has had an even bigger fall then Ahmendinejad and last traded at 10% on Intrade.
McAuliffe is reliving his past election with Hillary Clinton and is going down when he was considered the favorite for the majority of the campaign. Hopefully we won't see this guy on TV anymore, but I doubt it.
The blog www.wiserthanthecrowd.com was all over the McAuliffe meltdown in the polls and had multiple posts on it.
Anyone paying attention probably bought heavily into Deeds and this led to his incredible rise in price into the 90's but considering this is a primary and polls can be very inaccurate, the contract seems a little overvalued at the moment.
Election days can get crazy with regards to prices and they can swing in any direction quickly depending on the news coming out. We could be witnessing the same thing today.
We have now seen some movement downward but Deeds is still in the high 80's and looks to win this thing. McAuliffe's only chance now is that the polls are wrong the same way they were for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. I wouldn't bet on it.
No comments:
Post a Comment