The Iranian Presidential Election

Reading about the Iranian Election, I am reminded of one of Hugo Chavez’s presidential re-elections in Venezuela. In 2006, Chavez had to face off against Manuel Rosales, an opposition candidate who managed to unite the opposition and rally against Chavez. Hugo Chavez managed to win his re-election with many of the same advantages that Ahmadinejad has now.

Chavez had advantages thanks to being the leader of the government and used this to his advantage much like Ahmadinejad has done also. According to the Christian Science Monitor “Toppling Ahmadinejad, who has been in perpetual campaign mode for four years, visiting every province at least twice and spreading cash and favors to the millions of Iranians who have written letters to him, was never going to be easy.” Much like Chavez, Ahmadinejad has been spreading good will to his supporters and the people by spreading the oil wealth around. This is an advantage that can not be ignored, for years now Ahmadinejad has been buying the goodwill of his people and his base with straight cash. His supporters know this and to continue getting this cash, his supporters will come out and vote for him much like Chavez's supporters did for him.

Ahmadinejad’s base is the poor and rural vote, which may help to explain why some of the polls that have come out of Iran favor Mousavi and not Ahmadinejad. Many of those polls show Mousavi in the lead but many of these polls are conducted via telephone and one has to wonder how whether or not they are truly random samples of the population of Iran? How many of the poor and rural population have regular access to telephones?

The structure of this election is also different from the way American elections are held in that there will probably be a runoff election if no candidate has a clear majority. There are two reform candidates and two conservative candidates. No doubt, Mousavi and Ahmadinejad will get to the runoff. If the 2nd Conservative candidate’s vote is bigger then the 2nd Reform candidate vote, then Ahmadinejad could be well placed to win in the runoff.

Media coverage of the election seems to be very hopeful that Ahmadinejad will lose and that this will support the theory of the “Obama effect.” For the media to think that Obama has had a huge change in Middle East elections when he has been in office for less then 200 days is a little naïve to say the least. The fact is, the global economic recession has had an impact everywhere around the world and has helped the opposition win in many countries. With the economy being the number #1 issue in Iran, as it is everywhere else in the world, I think the “Obama Effect” is just wishful thinking.

Finally, there is a big question as to how fair and free this election truly is. The President of Iran is not the top guy in charge and the Ayatollahs of Iran retain ultimate political power. One thing we will probably never know is how much power they have over the election and whether or not they can manipulate the vote. According to NPR “Some prominent reformists believe it will take an additional 5 million votes to compensate for improprieties.” And according to the same Christian Science Monitor article linked earlier “Ahmadinejad has received frequent support from Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei.” Also, no President in Iran since the Iranian revolution who has run for re-election has ever lost. All these factors have me in favor of Ahmadinejad winning this election and I hope to god that I’m wrong.