Transformers 2 is coming out at Midnight and it is going to be HUGE! The theater count for this weekend will be 4,269 with 169 IMAX theaters which charge more. Transformers 2 has been trending high on Twitter all day and there have already been over 1,000 sold out performances and around half of those are for midnight tonight.
Reviews have not been stellar but I doubt that will have a big impact on a movie of this magnitude and because it is a sequel to a successful popular movie. People want action and that is exactly what they are going to get with thismovie. This movie will probably get $10 Million+ for the midnight showings alone. This doesn't necessarily mean that this movie will do really good on the Weekend once word of mouth spreads but it is certainly a good sign.
Reviews have not been stellar but I doubt that will have a big impact on a movie of this magnitude and because it is a sequel to a successful popular movie. People want action and that is exactly what they are going to get with thismovie. This movie will probably get $10 Million+ for the midnight showings alone. This doesn't necessarily mean that this movie will do really good on the Weekend once word of mouth spreads but it is certainly a good sign.
Currently, I have Contracts going Long on TRANSFORMERS.+$95.0M for 65, TRANSFORMERS.+$100.0M for 50, and TRANSFORMERS.+$110.0M for 33. I find the best thing to do betting on any movie is to spread the risk as much and as cheaply as possible. Right now, I think 110 Million is definately within sight for the weekend. But if it doesn't do as well as I hope I still have 100 Million and 95 Million to fall back on.
Right now, the biggest thing that scares me is that Word of Mouth will be terrible and it kills the weekend even though the movie has a very successful start. The run time of the movie is also not helpful to producing a big a box office at around 2.5 Hours, but that didn't stop The Dark Knight from the biggest opening weekend of all time.
The Data Feeds on the right will update as the week goes along and the one with the release date will keep a running total of it's entire Box Office Gross.
[Update:10:50 AM Wed]
Fandango: 2,000 midnight shows of TFRM2 sold out; 94% of ticket sales on Fandango
-- secretstalker, Jun 24, 9:54
No hard numbers yet, but it looks like we might be looking at 12-14 Million dollars for the midnight opening alone.
[Update: 2:20 PM Wed]
Transformers 2' Midnights Make $16 Mil
[Update: 1:44AM Thurs]
$55 Million for Opening Day! Analysis of this tomorrow.
[Update: 1:15PM Thurs]
$55 Million is apperently not good enough. $60.6 Million is the new Opening Day number.
To show how big that is let's show that compared to other big movies that opened on a Wedensday around the Summer.
Harry Potter and The Order of the Phoenix made
Wed: 44.2
Thurs: 18.3
Fri: 25.8
Sat: 28.9
Sun: 22.3
OW - 77.0 ; 5 Day Total - 139.7
Spider-Man 2 made
Wed: 40.4
Thurs: 28.8
Fri: 32.4
Sat: 33.7
Sun: 21.9
OW - 88.0 ; 5 Day Total -152.4
War of the Worlds made
Wed: 21.2
Thurs: 14.4
Fri: 21.9
Sat: 23.1
Sun: 19.7
OW - 64.7 ; 5-Day Total - 100.5
If we adjust them proportionately with Transformer's latest number for Wed, we get with
Harry Potter Adjustment
Wed: 60.6
Thurs: 25.1
Fri: 35.4
Sat: 39.6
Sun: 30.5
OW - 105.5 ; 5 Day Total - 191.2
Spider-Man 2 Adjustment
Wed: 60.6
Thurs: 43.2
Fri: 48.6
Sat: 50.6
Sun: 32.9
OW - 132.0 ; 5 Day Total -235.8
War of the Worlds Adjustment
Wed: 60.6
Thurs: 41.2
Fri: 62.6
Sat: 66.1
Sun: 56.3
OW - 185.0 ; 5-Day Total - 286.8
The War of the Worlds adjustment isn't very useful. I don't think anyone is expecting numbers like that. The market just isn't big enough to have those type of numbers. But the Spider-Man 2 and Harry Potter Adjustments show that $100 Million for the weekend looks good and seems secure. What isn't sure is whether or not Transformers can get a weekend with better multiplier than Harry Potter. Harry Potter had a lot of fans rush to the theaters that wanted to see it as soon as posible. The result being it is more front loaded.
Contrast that with Transformers and Spider-Man, which I think can appeal to a wider audience. I think we could be looking at a higher than $115 Million dollar weekend. Last night after seeing the $55 Million number for Opening day I acquired some more contracts at $105 Million going long. I'm pretty comfortable with what I have so far and for now I just want to see how this plays out.
[Update: 8:00AM Fri]
$28 Million for Thursday. As you can see, it is following the Harry Potter adjustment closer than the Spider-Man 2 adjustment. Nikki's estimate right now is probably a little conservative and we could be looking at a $30 Million+ Thursday when we get the actuals. $40 Million for Friday is definitely in play.
[Update: 3:00 AM Sat]
$35 Million for Sat, $115 Million seems out of play, I went short. $110 Million seems in Jeopardy, I sold what I had for a profit. Nikki's estimates can be a little conservative, so I'm not going to go crazy shorting it. Whomever, left those bids up is getting creamed.
[Update: 7:44 AM Sat]
I'm going to be busy today so no updates when the actuals come in. Nikki Finke is probably right but she has been off by a couple million in the past. So since I will be without internet access all day I got out of shorting $115 Million. If $35 Million is an accurate number for Friday, then this was probably a foolish decision, but I won't have access for most of the day and I can't risk it.
I'm still going long on $105 Million though.
[Update: 12:48 PM Sat]
I wasn't expecting to get the internet at my current location but Transformers is just to important haha. Box Office Mojo is saying a number a little higher than Nikki Finke's (Not Surprised). $36.7 Million for Fri is pretty good and now $105 looks pretty good. I'm seeing estimates all over the place. Ranging from $100 Million to $115 Million. No one seems to know what to expect and everyone is running around with there heads cut off. Comparing Transformers to Harry Potter, we look to be headed right for $110 Million. Right now, the prices on Intrade look spot on considering the information available. Transformers looks to make $200 Million in 5 days and the only movie that beats that 5-day record is The Dark Knight.
[Update: 2:42 AM Sunday EST]
Nikki is saying $39.5M for the moment. Her early estimates are almost an exact match with my Harry Potter adjustment. But it could be studio execs giving her numbers that are more conservative. We could probably see $40M-$41M Studio Estimate for Saturday tomorrow. Who knows?
36.7M + 40.5M = $77.2M
For $105 Million we only need $27.8M which seems more then possible considering Transformers has equaled or slightly outperformed the HP adjustment.
For $110 Million, we need $32.8M which is definitely possible on Sunday.
We are going to have to wait for Studio Estimates tomorrow, to know whether or not this is going over $110M. Under $115M does seem pretty safe but I don't think it's worth the risk to short a price of 6!
[Update: 12:06PM Sun]
Box Office Mojo is saying $112 Million for the weekend. Looks like I should have kept going long on $110 Million but oh well. Still a good Weekend for me overall.
[Update:4:30 PM Mon]
Well that was one hell of a weekend. I'm a little mad at myself for not shorting $110 Million when people were paying 95 for it but I'm glad that I wasn't going long on it either. Next week we have Public Enemies and Ice Age 3 so things should get interesting.
Intrade had over 4,000 Contracts traded this weekend and it was definitely their biggest weekend for the Box Office that I have seen. More then making up for the fact that only a single contract was traded for My Sister's Keeper.
Right now, the biggest thing that scares me is that Word of Mouth will be terrible and it kills the weekend even though the movie has a very successful start. The run time of the movie is also not helpful to producing a big a box office at around 2.5 Hours, but that didn't stop The Dark Knight from the biggest opening weekend of all time.
The Data Feeds on the right will update as the week goes along and the one with the release date will keep a running total of it's entire Box Office Gross.
[Update:10:50 AM Wed]
Fandango: 2,000 midnight shows of TFRM2 sold out; 94% of ticket sales on Fandango
-- secretstalker, Jun 24, 9:54
No hard numbers yet, but it looks like we might be looking at 12-14 Million dollars for the midnight opening alone.
[Update: 2:20 PM Wed]
Transformers 2' Midnights Make $16 Mil
[Update: 1:44AM Thurs]
$55 Million for Opening Day! Analysis of this tomorrow.
[Update: 1:15PM Thurs]
$55 Million is apperently not good enough. $60.6 Million is the new Opening Day number.
To show how big that is let's show that compared to other big movies that opened on a Wedensday around the Summer.
Harry Potter and The Order of the Phoenix made
Wed: 44.2
Thurs: 18.3
Fri: 25.8
Sat: 28.9
Sun: 22.3
OW - 77.0 ; 5 Day Total - 139.7
Spider-Man 2 made
Wed: 40.4
Thurs: 28.8
Fri: 32.4
Sat: 33.7
Sun: 21.9
OW - 88.0 ; 5 Day Total -152.4
War of the Worlds made
Wed: 21.2
Thurs: 14.4
Fri: 21.9
Sat: 23.1
Sun: 19.7
OW - 64.7 ; 5-Day Total - 100.5
If we adjust them proportionately with Transformer's latest number for Wed, we get with
Harry Potter Adjustment
Wed: 60.6
Thurs: 25.1
Fri: 35.4
Sat: 39.6
Sun: 30.5
OW - 105.5 ; 5 Day Total - 191.2
Spider-Man 2 Adjustment
Wed: 60.6
Thurs: 43.2
Fri: 48.6
Sat: 50.6
Sun: 32.9
OW - 132.0 ; 5 Day Total -235.8
War of the Worlds Adjustment
Wed: 60.6
Thurs: 41.2
Fri: 62.6
Sat: 66.1
Sun: 56.3
OW - 185.0 ; 5-Day Total - 286.8
The War of the Worlds adjustment isn't very useful. I don't think anyone is expecting numbers like that. The market just isn't big enough to have those type of numbers. But the Spider-Man 2 and Harry Potter Adjustments show that $100 Million for the weekend looks good and seems secure. What isn't sure is whether or not Transformers can get a weekend with better multiplier than Harry Potter. Harry Potter had a lot of fans rush to the theaters that wanted to see it as soon as posible. The result being it is more front loaded.
Contrast that with Transformers and Spider-Man, which I think can appeal to a wider audience. I think we could be looking at a higher than $115 Million dollar weekend. Last night after seeing the $55 Million number for Opening day I acquired some more contracts at $105 Million going long. I'm pretty comfortable with what I have so far and for now I just want to see how this plays out.
[Update: 8:00AM Fri]
$28 Million for Thursday. As you can see, it is following the Harry Potter adjustment closer than the Spider-Man 2 adjustment. Nikki's estimate right now is probably a little conservative and we could be looking at a $30 Million+ Thursday when we get the actuals. $40 Million for Friday is definitely in play.
[Update: 3:00 AM Sat]
$35 Million for Sat, $115 Million seems out of play, I went short. $110 Million seems in Jeopardy, I sold what I had for a profit. Nikki's estimates can be a little conservative, so I'm not going to go crazy shorting it. Whomever, left those bids up is getting creamed.
[Update: 7:44 AM Sat]
I'm going to be busy today so no updates when the actuals come in. Nikki Finke is probably right but she has been off by a couple million in the past. So since I will be without internet access all day I got out of shorting $115 Million. If $35 Million is an accurate number for Friday, then this was probably a foolish decision, but I won't have access for most of the day and I can't risk it.
I'm still going long on $105 Million though.
[Update: 12:48 PM Sat]
I wasn't expecting to get the internet at my current location but Transformers is just to important haha. Box Office Mojo is saying a number a little higher than Nikki Finke's (Not Surprised). $36.7 Million for Fri is pretty good and now $105 looks pretty good. I'm seeing estimates all over the place. Ranging from $100 Million to $115 Million. No one seems to know what to expect and everyone is running around with there heads cut off. Comparing Transformers to Harry Potter, we look to be headed right for $110 Million. Right now, the prices on Intrade look spot on considering the information available. Transformers looks to make $200 Million in 5 days and the only movie that beats that 5-day record is The Dark Knight.
[Update: 2:42 AM Sunday EST]
Nikki is saying $39.5M for the moment. Her early estimates are almost an exact match with my Harry Potter adjustment. But it could be studio execs giving her numbers that are more conservative. We could probably see $40M-$41M Studio Estimate for Saturday tomorrow. Who knows?
36.7M + 40.5M = $77.2M
For $105 Million we only need $27.8M which seems more then possible considering Transformers has equaled or slightly outperformed the HP adjustment.
For $110 Million, we need $32.8M which is definitely possible on Sunday.
We are going to have to wait for Studio Estimates tomorrow, to know whether or not this is going over $110M. Under $115M does seem pretty safe but I don't think it's worth the risk to short a price of 6!
[Update: 12:06PM Sun]
Box Office Mojo is saying $112 Million for the weekend. Looks like I should have kept going long on $110 Million but oh well. Still a good Weekend for me overall.
[Update:4:30 PM Mon]
Well that was one hell of a weekend. I'm a little mad at myself for not shorting $110 Million when people were paying 95 for it but I'm glad that I wasn't going long on it either. Next week we have Public Enemies and Ice Age 3 so things should get interesting.
Intrade had over 4,000 Contracts traded this weekend and it was definitely their biggest weekend for the Box Office that I have seen. More then making up for the fact that only a single contract was traded for My Sister's Keeper.
A huge number no doubt. It should do $45-50m total for Wednesday when you add in the midnights. I worry how front-loaded the film might be...if it does $50m Wed and say $25m Thursday is there enough left in the tank for $100m 3-day weekend?
ReplyDeleteWhy would this thing do better than Wolverine, which had a four day weekend and no 50m Wednesday problem?
ReplyDeleteX-Men Wolverine didn't have a four day weekend. So it's kinda hard for me to answer your question.
ReplyDeleteBut a movie like Transformers is just on another level when it comes to summer blockbuster. The demand for Transformers is just a lot bigger then X-Men. They can spread it out over more days and still make more money each day.
You're neglecting to mention the dreadful 22% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and the terrible word-of-mouth this movie has gotten so far.
ReplyDeleteI think Opening Day has shown that the bad reviews aren't going to hurt this movie much.
ReplyDeleteI may be the only person on Earth thinking this but to me the huge $60m Wednesday only reinforces the my prediction that TF2 will fall short of $110m for the 3-day weekend. The Harry Potter comparison is a good one but Harry Potter movies are mass-marketed better than TF2. TF2 is being marketed for the crowd who saw TF1; it doesn't do much to try to bring in new viewership. That's what makes me think the $60m Wednesday was all the diehards who ran out to see the movie on opening night/day. There's a case to be made both ways. I sold my $85m and $90m for big gains and plowed about half of it into shorts at very nice odds on the $100m, $105m and $110m contracts. Worst case I lose half my profit, best case I hit a big jackpot if the movie falls short of these wild expectations for the weekend.
ReplyDeleteAs a related aside...I calculate that the Mystery Movie Trader now has more than $28,000 in margin tied up on Transformers 2 contracts. Would love to know who this guy is...
ReplyDeleteOMG Chuck get on Intrade it's a f*cking show! All the bids are still up and we're tearing it apart on Nikki's update of $35m Friday, $105m weekend.
ReplyDeleteI'm watching MMB.
ReplyDeleteSpot on plays so far for you Chuck.
ReplyDeleteI shorted a GIANT pile of the $115m and a medium pile of $110m last night when the number came out and am now a bit nervous. The ERC estimate seems really high. I think the internal multiplier will be somewhere between 2.8 and 3.0 which projects out to $102.8m - $110.1m. Although if you use the T1 multiplier (3.11) it comes out very close to $115m. Let's hope there isn't a big 15% pop today!
I wouldn't worry about ERC too much. I've never really trusted them. They are also the only ones giving an estimate that high.
ReplyDeleteWell let's round Nikki's Saturday number to $40m. Under $115m should be fairly safe. I don't see this making more on Sunday than it did Friday. $110m seems like a counflip with about 33.5m to give. My gut tells me this will dive 15-20% off the Saturday gross which would be somewhere between $108.5 and $110.7
ReplyDeleteI'm still not a believer. They are estimating $34.6m Sunday. If you throw that just 6% off suddenly the under $110m is a winner.
ReplyDelete$108,966,307
ReplyDeleteWOW! If this holds congrats to everyone who shorted the heck out of those crazy 95.0 bids on the $110m last night (including myself).