Box Office Returns - Weekend 6/19/09 - 6/21/09

Very, very, slow week for Entertainment contracts this week. This has got to be the least traded Weekend Box Office in a couple of months. The only reason I can think of for this, is that Intrade didn't put any Box Office Contracts on its homepage.

This week we have "The Proposal" and "Year One."

Box Office Comparisons - "The Proposal"

He's Just not that into You - $27,785,487
Bride Wars - $21,058,173
What Happens in Vegas - $20,172,474
Failure to Launch - $24,411,322
Definitely Maybe - $9,764,270

For The Proposal, I am thinking it will do around $27 Million for the weekend.

Box Office Comparison - "Year One"

Observe and Report - $11,017,334
Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay - $14,908,404
Nacho Libre - $28,309,599
I Love You Man - $17,810,270
Superbad - $33,052,411
Adventureland - $5,722,039

For Year One, 17.7 Million for the weekend seems doable.

Here are the scores that Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic currently have for "The Proposal and "Year One."

RT
The Proposal - 39%
Year One - 21%

MC
The Proposal - 49%
Year One - 41%

Chick Flicks don't really have a history of passing $30 Million and "The Proposal" isn't getting good reviews either so I don't expect to pass $30 Million like tracking is suggesting. "Year One" is getting really bad reviews and I just don't think it has the buzz to pass $20 Million.

I have very few contracts for this weekend. I didn't see any prices that I liked but I was able to to go long on "The Proposal" at 22.5 Million and short on "Year One" at 17.5 Million. It may seem contradictory to bet against one's own prediction but what matters in Box Office Contracts is getting good odds. I may think "Year One" is going to pass 17.5 Million but I don't think it has 75% chance.

Next week we have Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, so we should get some more action but there has not been a lot of interest so far by people wanting to go short, so I'm glad I was able to get some contracts a week ago.