This weekend was pretty frustrating. The blizzard that hit the northeast may have cost me some serious money and ruined my prediction. At the same time, I feel I only have myself to blame because a good prediction takes into account all possible variables that can affect the outcome and I did not take into account the weather. Ironic, considering one of the main messages of Avatar is nature and the power that it contains. Another weekend gone by and another lesson learned.
Avatar did amazing this weekend and despite the blizzard, it almost beat the December Opening Weekend record held by I Am Legend. It also had a Sunday percentage decrease (-3.1%) that was lower than it’s Saturday one (-4.6%). This helped push Avatar over $75 Million and helped me cut some of my losses by going long on a couple positions on $75 Million Monday morning. I think the Sunday decrease also showed the true potential that Avatar had this weekend without the blizzard.
Percentage wise, I still did very good this weekend and had a Absolute (%) Difference below 15%. It’s just too bad I bet on the wrong way. As long I can continue to make predictions within 20% of the actual, I’ll feel very good about my chances of winning on Intrade. Winning and losing can often come in streaks and in the summer I felt I was on a really hot streak that I would be paying for later. The good thing about betting on the box office is that you always have another opportunity the next week.
| Prediction | Actual | Absolute (%) Difference | |
| Avatar | $86.58 Million | 77,025,481 | 12.4% |
| Did You Hear About the Morgans? | $7.35 Million | 6,616,571 | 11.08% |
| Movies Bet On Average | -- | -- | 12.4% |
| Total Average | -- | -- | 11.74% |
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