Who will be Elected Governor of New Jersey and Virginia?

According to Intrade, we have a dead heat in New Jersey and a done deal in Virginia. After months of being behind in the polls, Democratic Governor Corzine has finally pulled into the lead according to a poll by Fairleigh Dickinson. I have never heard of that pollster and I don't really believe them. Never the less, Rasmussen and a DailyKos/Research2000 show the race is getting closer and closer. Both polls show that Christie has a +4 point lead. The decrease in the lead isn't because Corzine has been polling better, it's because Republican Christie has been polling worse. If he can't stop the steady loss in support that he has been having for the last couple of months, we could very well see Gov. Corzine win his bid for re-election. He is currently trading at 50% right now.

I have not made a wager in this election either way, it seems clear that Christie is on the downtrend but he has consistently polled ahead and the Fairleigh Dickinson poll may not be accurate. Corzine has barely polled above 40% at any time in this race and Christie has to just stop the bleeding. I have to give the edge to Christie because he has consistently polled in the lead and I think with the election just around, Christie will barely squeak by. Look for a race that is too close to call on election night.

Here is how (D) Gov. Corzine has been trading recently on Intrade.



Here is a history of polling for the race in New Jersey.



In Virginia, my prediction that McDonnell would win is looking like a sure thing. McDonnell has been trading as high as 88% recently. The latest poll done by SurveyUSA has McDonnell in the lead by 11%. With less then a month to go, Democrat Creigh Deeds looks like a huge underdog with less then a month to go. Apparently, McDonnell has done well to stem the damage from his embarrassing thesis going public. There was another incident where a McDonnell supporter made fun of Deed's speaking ability, but I doubt it will hurt McDonnell's chances at this point.

As I said before I have money on Republican McDonnell for the race in Virginia. I bought him when he was at 62.5%. He last traded at 88%. A Republican win in Virginia looks like a sure thing and Republicans will use the election as propaganda that the people are turning against Obama. Remember that Virginia was a state that Obama won in his Presidential election that Senator Kerry and Vice President Al Gore had not.

Here is a history of polling for the race in Virginia.



Here is the Closing Price History on Intrade for (R)McDonnell for the past three months.