Chris Daggett Has a Better Chance of Being a Governor Than Creigh Deeds

That's what the prediction market Intrade is saying. Unbelievably, political traders and bettors on Intrade are predicting Independent candidate for Governor of New Jersey Chris Daggett has a better chance than Democratic candidate for Governor of Virginia Creigh Deeds. This has to be very embarrassing for Creigh Deeds whom the White House is already blaming for having lost the Gubernatorial Election that has not even taken place yet.

Personally, I believe that this is the result of a panic in the Creigh Deeds Derivative on Intrade. (D)Creigh Deeds is far behind in the polls. SurveyUSA last had him behind by 19 points, but he is a main candidate representing the Democratic Party. In a state that voted for Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate's chances have to be better then 3%!

Chris Daggett definitely doesn't have a chance of being Governor of New Jersey and is clearly trading high as the result of good press coverage as a potential spoiler in the New Jersey Gubernatorial election. Quite frankly, he might not even get 20%. Ultimately, market prices can be highly influenced by people's emotions and partisan thinking. In this case it might not matter very much, neither Deeds or Daggett stand a good chance of winning and it's possible they might both be overvalued!

Political Traders on Intrade currently have Independent candidate for Governor of New Jersey Chris Daggett at 7%. The current Bid and Ask as of this writing is Bid:6% Ask:7%



Political Traders on Intrade currently have Democratic candidate for Governor of Virginia Creigh Deeds at 3%. The current Bid and Ask as of this writing is Bid:3.1% Ask:4.9%