Afghanistan: The War and The Election

As you know, one of the hot topics besides Health-Care Reform is Afghanistan and whether or not we should have a surge of troops similar to Iraq to gain back control of a war that was ignored by the government and overshadowed by the Iraq War. Obama has now taken over the Presidency and has had to clean up multiple messes including this one. Eight years after September 11th, we still have not captured or killed Osama Bin Laden and the Taliban is still fighting and killing us for control of the country.

If I was Barack Obama I would take my time with a decision to send more troops also. Quite frankly, I don't think anybody really knows what to do. On the one hand, Obama has Generals that turned around the Iraq War saying we can win Afghanistan also and are restless over delay for a decision.

On the other hand, we have already been there eight years and President Karzai is practically forced to accept a runoff because roughly a third of his ballots are fraudulent. The run-off election will be held on November 7th, and then we might have to wait days and maybe even weeks to get the results. Vice-President Biden has also been very vocal in his opposition to a large increase of troops.

Can President Karzai win a run-off now that he has been forced to accept that a lot of his ballots were fraudulent? Does Dr. Abdullah Abdullah stand a chance? Does it even matter who wins? So many questions and variables regarding Afghanistan to consider.

Right now, Intrade is Predicting a 70% chance that an announcement will be made to send over +10,000 troops to Afghanistan by the end of 2009.

I'm very skeptical any foreign entity can retain control of Afghanistan for a lengthy amount of time. The United Kingdom could not. The Soviet Union could not. And now after eight years the United States finds itself not fully in control and on the verge of a bigger conflict.

If the United States increases the involvement of troops in Afghanistan I believe it should accomplish these goals.
1.) Destroy as much of the Taliban and Al Qaeda as possible.
2.) Establish control for the local civilian government.
3.) Train a large, self sufficient, Afghan Military to take over control.
4.) Get out quickly.

Not many people know that the Afghan government left in place when the Communists left survived for two years without help. That is why it is so important that the civilians trust the government. I think President Karzai has lost this trust with the Afghan people and the U.S Government has realized this. The U.S and Allies have forced Karzai to a run-off that he did not want and I don't think they want him to win. That is why I decided to bet against Karzai recently. I put a sizable position that Karzai will not win the run-off election for the Afghan Presidential Election of 2009.

With the recent announcement of a run-off election and analysis of the fraudulent results, I decided to take a 30% chance that President Karzai will not win and that Dr. Abdullah Abdullah will be the new President of Afghanistan.