Potential Game Changer in Virginia?

In the Virginia Gubernatorial Election of 2009, the controversial thesis that Republican Bob McDonnell wrote back in graduate school has given the Intrade contracts regarding that election with quite a jolt. In one day the price for VA.GOV2009.REP contract dropped from 75% to 60%.



It seems that now the price has somewhat stabilized on Intrade around 65% with the knowledge of two polls one by PPP and the other by Rasmussen, that the thesis has not had a major impact on the current state of the anticipated vote.

The thesis could be a momentum starter for Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds who desperately needs it. Bob McDonnell needs to just stay cool and acknowledge that the thesis is not a big deal because it is 20 years old and doesn't reflect all of his current beliefs. He needs to not lose credibility with some other scandal for the public to buy his excuse. If he can do that, he'll probably go on to win.