This is a pretty big win for Beck and the hardcore right. Liberals might not like that they are being bullied by someone they consider to be a right-wing lunatic. Will anyone notice though? The Van Jones controversy has been brewing over on conservative radio and internet, but it had barely been noticed by the mainstream media. It is now the middle of labor day weekend and the Obama Administration has killed a story before it even gets started. Pretty smart.
The Price Data for the Intrade contract VANJONES.DEPART.DEC09 was pretty interesting.
Date - Time - Price - Volume
Sep 5, 2009 - 8:18 AM EDT - 69 - 85
Sep 5, 2009 - 8:18 AM EDT - 69 - 85
Sep 5, 2009 - 11:01 AM EDT - 69 - 5
Sep 5, 2009 - 11:06 AM EDT - 80 - 1
Sep 5, 2009 - 2:01 PM EDT - 80 - 2
Sep 5, 2009 - 2:01 PM EDT - 80 - 5
Sep 5, 2009 - 5:29 PM EDT - 71 - 1
Sep 5, 2009 - 5:29 PM EDT - 70 - 3
Sep 5, 2009 - 10:26 PM EDT - 88 - 10
Sep 6, 2009 - 1:04 AM EDT - 88 - 13
Sep 6, 2009 - 1:04 AM EDT -90 - 20
Here it is in a graph.
At around 8:18 AM on September 5th, someone wagered $1,173 to win $527 that Van Jones would resign. This was the very first action on the contract! News that Van Jones was going to resign didn't come out until way later in the day. The first tweet I got about it was at midnight. The Drudge Report, didn't have the story until around 3AM this morning. Whomever, bought those contracts this morning either knew something on the inside or made an amazing prediction.
That bettor put a significant amount of money that Van Jones had at least a 69% chance of leaving his job. I would have given it a much lower chance considering the media didn't seem to be picking the story up and Friday is usually the day that one would dump this type of news.
Intrade, has made another big prediction thanks to the people that use it and risk their own money. Had you asked most political pundits if Van Jones would resign, I doubt most would say yes. Had you asked them to wager $1,173 to win $527, I'm sure that even out of the ones that did say yes, very few would have had the conviction to place the bet. But someone did, and they turned out to be right. This is just another example of how predictions markets are revealing cutting edge information through the price and market mechanism.
Intrade, has made another big prediction thanks to the people that use it and risk their own money. Had you asked most political pundits if Van Jones would resign, I doubt most would say yes. Had you asked them to wager $1,173 to win $527, I'm sure that even out of the ones that did say yes, very few would have had the conviction to place the bet. But someone did, and they turned out to be right. This is just another example of how predictions markets are revealing cutting edge information through the price and market mechanism.
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