Obama's Speech on Health-Care

The Intrade contract on the Public Option didn't really see a big change in price thanks to the President's Speech to Congress. Republican Joe Wilson even heckled the President yelling "you lie". He apologized immediately after and shows us the kind of respect the President has across party lines. This could really rally the Democrats and give them the shift in momentum that they need.

One thing that will help them along these lines is the Economy getting better. Democrats will be able get credit for the economy getting better and use it to their advantage. This is why I think health-care reform was doomed from the start. The Obama Admnistration had barely "fixed" the economy and went directly to reforming health-care. It's sort of like George W. Bush going into Iraq when we hadn't quite finished the job in Afghanistan.

I doubt the economy is going to get better enough to help the Democrats get the Public Option but anything is possible. The speech didn't look like it helped much with the Public Option much either. The price on Intrade went up a little bit and has now basically come back down.

I still don't have a position on the public option contract but I'm inclined to think
that it will fail. I don't want to short it at this price though.

Here is the price history.